BC Conservative Support Rallies Without Kerry-Lynne Findlay

Vancouver, BC October 1, 2026 – A new Ipsos poll, conducted in partnership with Global BC, shows a significantly altered political landscape following the resignation of BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay. The BC Conservatives have regained much of the support they previously lost and now hold a narrow lead over the BC NDP. The survey also finds a decline in David Eby's personal impression ratings. Together, these developments make the NDP's decision to call an early election look increasingly risky.

Voter Support

The NDP’s lead from just two weeks ago has vanished. The BC Conservatives now have the support of 42% of decided voters, which puts them 2-points ahead (a statistical tie) of the BC NDP at 40%. The Conservatives have gained 7-points from our prior poll conducted September 8-14, while the NDP have lost 5-points. 

The BC Greens are next best at 10% (unchanged), followed by OneBC at 3% (up 1), CentreBC at 3% (down 1) and other parties at 2% (down 2). These results exclude the 27% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

Age Breaks: The two main parties are effectively tied across all age groups. The Conservatives lead by 3-points among 18-34 years olds (CONS 41% vs. NDP 38%) and by 2-points among those 55 years and older (CONS 44% vs. NDP 42%). The NDP has a 1-point lead among 35-54 year olds (NDP 40% vs. CONS 39%).

Gender Breaks: The gender gap is very small. The NDP leads by just 2-points among women (42% NDP vs. 40% CONS), while the Conservatives lead by just 4-points among men (CONS 43% vs. NDP 39%).

Region Breaks: The horserace is close in seat rich Metro Vancouver with the NDP leading by just 2- points (43% NDP vs. 41% CONS). The NDP has a much bigger 18-point lead on Vancouver Island (48% NDP vs. 30% CONS), while the Conservatives have an 18-point lead in the Southern Interior/North (49% CONS vs. 31% NDP).

Deserve Re-Election vs. Time for Change

British Columbians have not yet reached a consensus as to whether this is a change election. Just three-in-ten (31%) residents say that the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while nearly half (47%) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over. Slightly more than two-in-ten (22%) are undecided.

The opinion that the Eby government deserves re-election is down 7-points from our first poll of the 2024 provincial campaign (31% now, 38% in 2024) which implies less satisfaction with the Eby government today. Time for change is up 4-points from 2024 (47% now vs. 43% in 2024). 

Views of Political Figures

David Eby: Impressions of David Eby are equally positive and negative, but impressions have worsened compared to Ipsos polling conducted two weeks ago. Eby has 37% favourable impressions (down 4) and 37% unfavourable impressions (up 7). Two-in-ten residents have a neutral impression of Eby (21%, down 2), while only 5% (down 1) have not heard of him.

Impressions of all other leaders are much less defined.
Lorne Doerkson: Four-in-ten residents (39%) have an impression of new BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson, including 20% favourable impressions and 19% unfavourable impressions. Three-in-ten (29%) have not heard of Doerkson and 32% have a neutral impression.

Dallas Brodie: About one-in-three residents (35%) have an impression of OneBC leader Dallas Brodie, including 12% (up 2) favourable impressions and 23% (down 1) unfavourable impressions. Three-in-ten (30%, down 6) have not heard of Brodie and 35% (up 5) have a neutral impression.

Emily Lowan: Three-in-ten residents (31%) have an impression of BC Green leader Emily Lowan, including 15% (up 3) favourable impressions and 16% (up 1) unfavourable impressions. One-third (33%, down 8) have not heard of Lowan and 36% (up 4) have a neutral impression.

Elenore Sturko: Three-in-ten residents (31%) have an impression of new CentreBC leader Elenore Sturko, including 13% favourable impressions and 18% unfavourable impressions. One-third (34%) have not heard of Sturko and 34% have a neutral impression.

Best Premier

David Eby (33%) is the only well known party leader so it should be no surprise to see him opening the campaign with a 16-point advantage over Lorne Doerksen (17%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of the province. Far back are Emily Lowan (6%), Dallas Brodie (6%) and Elenore Sturko (4%). More than one-third (36%) of British Columbians are still undecided.

Election Timing

Half (50%) of British Columbians say they disapprove of having an election now, while 32% approve of the decision. This is on par with the 46% disapproval of British Columbians when John Horgan and the NDP called an early election during COVID in September 2020. 

As should be expected, disapproval is much higher among BC Conservative supporters (64%) than among BC NDP voters (34%). Disapproval is also much higher among older British Columbians (59% among 55+ years) than among younger British Columbians (36% among 18-34 years).

Top Issues

There continue to be three dominant issues for voters in British Columbia – cost of living/inflation (56%), health care (39%) and housing affordability and availability (31%). 
•    Top issues for current BC NDP supporters include cost of living/inflation (62%), health care (48%), housing affordability and availability (34%), and US trade and tariff issues (24%) and jobs and the economy (24%).
•    Top issues for current BC Conservative supporters include cost of living/inflation (59%), health care (31%), taxes (30%), housing affordability and availability (29%), jobs and the economy (26%) and crime and public safety (23%).
•    Top issues for current BC Green supporters include cost of living/inflation (58%), housing affordability and availability (37%), climate change and the environment (36%), health care (34%), and social issues like poverty and homelessness (21%).
•    Top issues for undecided voters include cost of living/inflation (47%), health care (44%) and housing affordability and availability (29%).
The full list of issues British Columbians would most like to see provincial leaders address is listed below. Survey respondents could select up to three issues.

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from September 25 to 29, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 adult British Columbians were surveyed online with sample sourced through the Ipsos panel. Data was weighted by BC region, age, gender and education, in accordance with Census proportions. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
SVP, Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 604 788-2417
[email protected]

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