BC Conservatives Knocking on Door of Majority Government

Vancouver, BC October 23, 2026 – David Eby’s early election gamble looks like a bet made with a bad hand according to a new Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC. The BC Conservatives continue to lead the BC NDP by 5 points among decided voters in the final days of this election campaign. And while survey margins of error still leave some room for doubt, Lorne Doerkson is a solid favourite to go from obscurity to premier elect in the span of just five weeks.

A BC Conservative victory is by no means a certainty and as always this election will come down to turnout and some last minute ballot box decisions. BC surprised once before and the range of outcomes in this election includes a Conservative majority, a much less likely NDP majority and the potential for the Greens to hold a balance of power.

Voter Support

The BC Conservatives now have the support of 44% (up 1) of decided voters, which puts them 5 points ahead of the BC NDP at 39% (up 1). The BC Greens are next best at 13% (up 2), followed by OneBC at 2% (down 2), CentreBC at 1% (down 1) and other parties at 1% (down 1). These results exclude the 18% (down 7) of British Columbians who are undecided (12%, down 6) or express no preference (7%, unchanged).

Age Breaks: The BC Conservatives lead by 13 points among 35-54 year olds (CONS 48% vs. NDP 35%) and by 10 points among 18-34 years olds (CONS 42% vs. NDP 32%). The NDP has a statistically insignificant lead among those 55 years and older (NDP 45% vs. CONS 42%). The Greens do best among younger voters (23% among 18-34 years, up 5 points).

Gender Breaks: There is a substantial gender gap. The Conservatives lead by 15 points among men (50% CONS vs. 35% NDP), while the NDP lead by 4 points among women (NDP 42% vs. CONS 38%). The Greens do better with women (17%) than men (10%).

Region Breaks: The contest remains close in seat rich Metro Vancouver with the BC Conservatives leading by 4 points (44% CONS vs. 40% NDP). The NDP has a substantial 14 point lead on Vancouver Island (46% NDP vs. 32% CONS), while the Conservatives have a 22 point lead in the Southern Interior/North (53% CONS vs. 31% NDP). The Greens do best on Vancouver Island (18% vs. 13% overall).

Voter Certainty

Voters are making up their minds. Currently 15% (down 8) of voters with a party preference say there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for some other party's candidate in this election. 

Voter certainty is about equal for the NDP (14% might change, down 5) and BC Conservatives (13%, down 7%). Green Party support is much less secure with one-quarter (27%, down 10) saying there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for some other party's candidate in this election.

Views of Political Figures

Views of David Eby have remained stable throughout the campaign. He ends the campaign with slightly more unfavourable (40%) than favourable (35%) impressions.

Views of Lorne Doerkson are about equally favourable (31%) as unfavourable (33%), as they have been throughout the entire campaign.

Views of Emily Lowan have improved over the campaign and especially since the debate. She has more favourable (30%) than unfavourable impressions (18%).

Views of Dallas Brodie are much more unfavourable (32%) than favourable (13%). They have worsened over the campaign.

Views of Elenore Sturko are much more unfavourable (28%) than favourable (11%). They have worsened over the campaign.
 

Best Premier

David Eby (30%, unchanged) continues to lead Lorne Doerksen (23%, up 4) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier, but the gap has fallen from 11 points to 7 points since our mid-campaign poll. Far back are Emily Lowan (10%, up 3), Dallas Brodie (6%, up 1) and Elenore Sturko (2%, down 2). Nearly three-in-ten (28%, down 7) British Columbians are still undecided.

Deserve Re-Election vs. Time for Change

Time for change continues to nudge upwards. A majority (53%, up 3 since mid-campaign and up 6 from start of campaign) of residents now believe it is time for another provincial party to take over. Three-in-ten (31%, unchanged) residents continue to say that the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 16% (down 3) are undecided.

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from October 20 to 22, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,260 adult British Columbians were surveyed online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=801) and by phone with live interviewers (n=459) using both cellphones and landlines. Data was weighted by BC region, age, gender and education, in accordance with Census proportions. The precision of Ipsos polls including online samples is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within ±3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Questions asked only of online respondents are accurate to within ±4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
SVP, Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 604 788-2417
[email protected] 

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