Red Wave Lifts Ontario Liberals (44%) over PCs (31%) and
NDP (20%) on Provincial Vote, But Undercurrent for Change Strong
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Ontario Liberal Party lead by Premier Kathleen Wynne would receive 44% of the decided vote, up 10 points from an Ipsos poll conducted in May, while Patrick Brown and the Progressive Conservatives would receive 31% of the vote, down 1 point. Most of the Liberal gains have come at the expense of Andrea Horwath's NDP (20%) and other parties, including Mike Schreiner's Green Party (4%), who are down 5 and 4 points, respectively, since May's poll.
Not only do the Liberals have a wide lead province wide, they also lead in almost every region of the province, with the exception of the north:
- In the 416, Toronto proper, the Liberals (56%) have a commanding lead over the PCs (28%), NDP (15%) and other parties (1%).
- In the 905, the Liberals (42%) lead over the PCs (34%), NDP (18%) and other parties (6%) is more narrow, but still significant.
- In Central Ontario, the Liberals (42%) have a seven-point lead over the PCs (35%), NDP (18%), and other parties (4%).
- In Southwest Ontario, the Liberals (37%) have an advantage over the PCs (31%), NDP (26%) and other parties (6%).
- In Eastern Ontario, the Liberals (53%) have a massive lead over the PCs (29%), NDP (15%) and other parties (3%).
- In Northern Ontario, the NDP (37%) and PCs (35%), lead the Liberals (28%), but it's a relatively tight race compared to other regions.
Liberals Flying High, but Desire for Change Remains Strong...
While the Liberals have a substantial lead in the popular vote, the desire for change in Ontario is strong. Seven in ten (70%) Ontarians believe it is `time for another provincial party to take over' (up 1 point), compared to just three in ten (30%) who think `the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election' (down 1 point).
By comparison, in the recent Federal Election (where the Harper Conservative's ultimately received 32% of the popular vote), Ipsos' Election Day poll of voters revealed that 33% believed Harper deserved re-election, while 67% wanted change. In other words, the desire for change is just as strong - if not stronger - in Ontario now as it was federally during the federal election.
The desire for change remains strong, even though four in ten (41%) Ontarians `approve' (7% strongly/33% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under the leadership of Kathleen Wynne, compared to six in ten (59%) who `disapprove' (36% strongly/23% somewhat).
Kathleen Wynne Regains Edge as Best Premier...
When thinking about which of the major party leaders would make the best Premier of Ontario, Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne (36%, up 5 points) has regained the edge as the leader who Ontarians think would make the best premier. In second position is NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (34%, down 2 points), while PC Leader Patrick Brown (30%, down 3 points) appears yet to make a strong impression and is in third place.
No One Leader Has the Hammer in Leadership Attributes...
Below is a list of leadership attributes, and the proportion of Ontarians who believe each leader is best described by that attribute. Interestingly, Premier Wynn only leads on one of these attributes.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between November 5 and 9, 2015, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,002 Ontarian adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]
About Ipsos in Canada
Ipsos is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos' marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.
With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,669.5 ($2,218.4 million) in 2014.
Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.
