In Wake of Debate, Ford’s PCs (38%, -1) Retain Double-Digit Lead over Liberals (28% +2) and NDP (23%, -2)
Toronto, ON, May 23, 2022 – With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, the voting landscape in Ontario remains relatively stagnant as time is quickly running out for the opposition parties to close the gap on the incumbent government. A strong lead province-wide, including a fourteen-point lead in the seat-rich 905 region, would easily secure Doug Ford a second mandate as Premier of Ontario.
If the election were held tomorrow, 38% of decided voters would vote for Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party (down 1 point since the start of the campaign), giving the Tories a double-digit lead over their rivals. The progressive vote is slowly beginning to coalesce around Steven Del Duca and the Liberal party who would receive 28% of the decided popular vote (up 2 points) at the expense of Andrea Horwath’s NDP who would receive 23%, down 2 points. Mike Schreiner and the Green Party would receive 6% of the vote (up 1 point), while 5% would vote for some other party (down 1 point). Two in ten (19%) either would not vote (6%) or remain undecided (13%).
Underscoring the strong province-wide figures for the Progressive Conservatives is that they are leading or in a close second position in every region of the province, including the City of Toronto.
- In the 905 region surrounding Toronto, the PCs would receive 44% of the vote, well ahead of the Liberals (30%), NDP (17%), Greens (5%) and others (4%).
- In Toronto proper, the Liberals (32%), PCs (30%) and NDP (25%) are in a relatively tight race, while the Greens (8%) and others (4%) trail.
- In Southwestern Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives (36%) enjoy a lead over the NDP (30%), Liberals (22%), Greens (5%) and others (7%).
- In Central Ontario, the PCs (40%) are ahead of the Liberals (34%), NDP (21%), Greens (2%) and others (3%).
- In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (41%) have a strong lead over the Liberals (28%), NDP (19%), Greens (9%) and others (4%).
- In Northern Ontario, the PCs (43%) lead the NDP (23%) and Liberals (22%) who in turn are ahead of the Greens (5%) and others (6%).
The Progressive Conservatives are also in the lead among many other key demographic groups studied:
- Among those aged 55+, the Tories (49%) have a commanding lead over the Liberals (28%) and NDP (16%), Greens (4%) and others (3%).
- Among those aged 35-54, The PCs (42%) are also well in the lead over the Liberals (27%) NDP (20%), Greens (6%) and others (5%).
- Among those aged 18-34, the NDP (38%) is by far the preferred choice over the Liberals (28%) and Tories (17%), with the Greens (9%) and others (8%) behind.
- Among men, the PC (46%) advantage over the Liberals (27%), NDP (17%), Greens (5%) and others (6%) is substantial.
- Among women, a three-way race ensues among the PCs (31%), NDP (29%) and Liberals (29%), while the Greens (7%) and others (5%) are well back.
- The PCs have a double-digit lead over their rivals among all households which earn in excess of $60,000 per year.
- In urban and suburban settings across the province, the Tories (36%) lead the Liberals (29%), NDP (24%), Greens (6%) and others (5%).
- In rural settings, a majority (53%) would vote for the PCs, while the Liberals (20%), NDP (16%), Greens (4%) and others (7%) aren’t a serious threat.
Ipsos’ poll at the start of the campaign, which showed the Liberals and NDP tied in popular vote called the first part of the campaign a “progressives for the primary”, as voters kicked the tires of both the Liberal and the NDP in order to determine which party had the better chance of defeating the Ford PCs. Likely informing the improvement for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP, it’s interesting to note that six in ten (57%) Ontarians believe that Steven Del Duca and the Liberals have the better chance at defeating the Tories, while four in ten (43%) believe Andrea Horwath and the NDP have the better shot at taking down the Tories.
With fundamental support for the Progressive Conservative government remaining strong, it will be difficult for either opposition party to unseat the incumbent government:
- Half (52%, +1 since the start of the campaign) continue to approve (15% strongly/37% somewhat) of the performance of the Progressive Conservative government in Ontario under Doug Ford.
- Four in ten (41%, +1) continue to believe that the Progressive Conservative government under Premier Doug Ford has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected. If everyone who thought this voted for the government, they would be assured a majority government. Conversely, a majority (56%) feels it is time for a change, while 3% are not sure either way.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 17 and 19, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1501 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online (n = 1001 though the Ipsos I-Say panel and non panel sources) and by live-operator telephone interview (n = 500 through landline and cellphones). Online respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
© 2022, Ipsos Limited Partnership
This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
Sean Simpson
Senior Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 416 324 2002
[email protected]
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