One Year To Next BC Provincial Election

Vancouver, BC-- With a year to go until the next provincial election, a new Ipsos-Reid poll shows that the NDP now has a clear lead over the BC Liberals.

Currently, 44% of decided British Columbians say they would support the NDP if an election were held tomorrow, while only 37% would support the BC Liberals. Compared to March 2004, NDP support is up two points while Liberal support is down by the same amount, thereby widening the NDP's lead over the Liberals from three to seven points.

More generally, this is the continuation of a trend of declining Liberal support and increasing NDP support that started after September 2003 when the parties stood at 45% and 31% support respectively.

Meanwhile, the fortunes of the Green Party seem to be waning as well, as they post their lowest level of support (11%) since before the last election and are now nine points off their high of 20% (May 2002).

The number of undecided voters is up slightly to 23% from 20% in March.

"The NDP continues to be the beneficiary of a slow, but steady erosion in public confidence in the BC Liberals" says Kyle Braid, Vice-President of Ipsos-Reid in Vancouver. "The challenge for the Liberals over the next year is to give the public a reason why they deserve to be re-elected."

• There is a sizeable gender gap in support for both main parties. NDP support among women (49%) is nine points higher than among men (40%) while BC Liberal support is six points higher among men (40%) than women (34%). As of this wave, men are equally likely to support the Liberals (40%) as they are the NDP (40%).
• Regionally, the NDP and BC Liberals are in a statistical tie in the Lower Mainland (43% to 40%), while the NDP is far out front in the rest of the province (46% to 33%). BC Unity now has the support of nearly one-in-ten (8%) decided voters outside the Lower Mainland.
• Support for the NDP is highest among those aged 35-54 (51%) while support for the BC Liberals is highest in the 18-34 age group (39%) and the 55+ (41%) age group.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between May 4th and May 10th, 2004. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult British Columbian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other subgroupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual British Columbian population according to the 2001 Census.

For more information on this press release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice-President, Ipsos-Reid
Vancouver, BC
604.257.3200 About Ipsos-Reid

Ipsos-Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos-Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada--including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country--all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos-Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-reid.com

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