Parliament Resumes to Same-Old Story

Toronto, ON - The House of Commons has resumed and Parliamentarians appear to be picking up where they left off, with a fractious and narrow vote over the long-gun registry paving the way for another tumultuous session of Parliament. According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television, despite losing the long-gun registry vote this week, the Conservatives have managed to solidify their support, increasing their lead to six points over the Liberals.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 35% of the vote among decided voters, (up 1 point), while the Liberal Party led by Michael Ignatieff would receive 29% of the vote (down 2 points). Since the start of the summer, Michael Ignatieff had been steadily improving his party's fortunes in the polls, but in a week where the Minister of Finance warned of an opposition coalition that could ruin the economy, the Liberals appear to have lost some ground, particularly in Ontario.

The electoral fortunes for the NDP have also worsened, perhaps as a result of the rifts caused within the Party evidenced by some MPs breaking from the Party line on the gun-registry vote. The NDP and Jack Layton would receive only 12% of the vote if an election were held tomorrow (down 4 points), which now ties them with Elizabeth May and the Green Party who are also at 12% support (up 3 points). Six percent (6%) of Canadians remain undecided.

The seat-rich province of Ontario continues to be a key battle ground. The Tories (37%) and the Grits (37%) are currently tied for support, erasing the lead the Liberals enjoyed mere weeks ago. The Green Party (15%) leads the NDP (11%) in Ontario.

In Quebec, the Bloc (44%) continues to enjoy a commanding lead over the Liberals (22%), and the Conservatives (16%). Once again, the Green Party (11%) leads the NDP (7%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from September 21-23, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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