The Political Landscape at Ground Level: Part I
Election Myth Busting

Toronto, ON --Now that a federal election is upon us, we need to bust a couple of the myths surrounding the current political situation. You know the myths I'm talking about, the yarns that will be trotted out by the barstool prophets and TV pundits as the Prime Minister walks across the street from 24 Sussex to Rideau Hall.

The first myth that needs to go is that the Conservatives are on the verge of forming their first majority government since 1988. While they may get a majority in the end, there's little in even the most optimistic polls to show that this is the case today. That's because the Tories have weak support in places that have the most seats (urban Ontario and Quebec), and overwhelming support in places with few seats (rural Canada, especially the West). This is not a majority coalition.

For the Tories to win a majority, one of two things must happen. Either Liberal support in Ontario has to collapse, or BQ support in Quebec has to disappear. None of the current polls shows that this is happening. That's why you will be seeing a lot of Mr. Harper's tour bus on the highways between Quebec City and Windsor, Ontario over the next few weeks.

So what share of the vote do the Tories need to win a majority? It certainly isn't 38% - their high-water mark in the most recent spate of polls. The Tories formed a weak minority with 36% in the last election. Two more points won't do it for them. Smarter observers know that the Tory's magic number is 40%. Until the Conservatives pass that threshold, talk of a majority is wasted breath. In fact, a more realistic number is 43%- 44%.

The second myth that needs to go is that the Liberals are at death's door. True, they trail the Tories at the moment, but due to the efficiency of their vote (they do well where the Tories do poorly), they are still very much in the game. You only need to think back to Jean Chrйtien's second majority in 1997, when the Liberals won 51% of the seats with only 38% of the vote, to understand why they should never be written off, even if they're behind and struggling with an unpopular leader.

The key to the Grit coalition is their continuing popularity in the Greater Toronto Area, or GTA. And, that's the wider GTA. An old truism that's rapidly becoming a myth is that the Liberals do well in the 416 (Toronto proper), but the Tories are strong in the 905. Back in the `80s that was the case, but no longer. Increasingly, the 905 is looking like the 416. Changing immigration patterns and increasing urban density is creating an electorate that looks more like York West (one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada), then the old semi-rural suburbs of the past. This is why the Conservatives are having a difficult time breaking through in Ontario.

Finally, the one truism of politics is that campaigns matter. This one will be no different. While today's polls can give us a sense of where things are headed, campaigns take on a life of their own. Stay tuned.

How The Vote Looks By...

The Margin of Error

These are the findings of a representative randomly selected sample of 4,013 adult Canadians who were interviewed by telephone from July 8th-August 28th. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1771.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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