Pre French Debate Flash Poll Shows Great Potential for Layton in Quebec Pending Performance in Tonight's Debate

Toronto, ON - In the hours leading up to the French-language leaders' debate, a new Ipsos Reid flash poll conducted from noon until 6pm ET has revealed that Jack Layton has great opportunities in Quebec for his party, pending a solid performance in tonight's debate. Following his performance in the English-leader's debate, which gave a majority (55%) of polled viewers an improved impression of Jack Layton coming out of the debate, Francophones appear to have high expectations for Mr. Layton in tonight's melee.

While Gilles Duceppe is, not surprisingly, chosen by a plurality (31%) of Francophones as the man they think will win the debate, Stephen Harper (19%), Jack Layton (16%) and Michael Ignatieff (15%) are all tightly clustered. But Jack Layton sails to the top of the list on some other key metrics:

• When it comes to who has the best policies and ideas, Jack Layton (35%) leads the pack, followed by Michael Ignatieff (24%), Gilles Duceppe (18%) and finally Stephen Harper (14%). One in ten (9%) Francophones don't know.
• A whopping three quarters (74%) say that Jack Layton is the most likeable, followed distantly by Gilles Duceppe (13%), Michael Ignatieff (5%) and Stephen Harper (5%). Just 3% don't know.
• Four in ten (38%) believe that Jack Layton is the most visually attractive, well ahead of Gilles Duceppe (18%), Stephen Harper (14%), and Michael Ignatieff (13%). Two in ten (17%) don't know.
• Stephen Harper (34%) is chosen by one in three as the man who sounds and acts the most like a Prime Minister. Michael Ignatieff (24%), Jack Layton (19%) and Gilles Duceppe (14%) are in a closer battle for second place.

The economy (22%), healthcare (17%) and ethics and accountability (16%) are the top three issues that Francophones most want the political leaders to be talking about, while fewer believe the leaders should be focusing on the environment (7%), education/universities/school (7%), poverty (7%), jobs/unemployment (6%), crime/justice (1%), or some other issue (2%). Just 2% don't know what they want the leaders to be discussing. Out of four issues studied in greater detail, Jack Layton is picked as having the best ideas and policies for dealing with two of these files:

• Environment: 47% Jack Layton, 15% Gilles Duceppe, 15% Michael Ignatieff, 5% Stephen Harper, 19% don't know.
• Healthcare: 33% Jack Layton, 23% Michael Ignatieff, 18% Gilles Duceppe, 8% Stephen Harper, 17% don't know.
• Taxes: 27% Michael Ignatieff, 24% Jack Layton, 20% Stephen Harper, 13% Gilles Duceppe, 16% don't know.
• Economy: 27% Stephen Harper, 25% Michael Ignatieff, 18% Jack Layton, 14% Gilles Duceppe, 16% don't know.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global Teleivison on April 13, 2011, from noon to 6pm EDT. The pre-debate survey was conducted among 919 French-speaking Canadian adults. Respondents were selected via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of over 1,773 French-speaking voters. Weighting then was employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the population of French-speaking Canadian adults according to the latest Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire French-speaking adult population in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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