Pulse of Toronto - Federal Politics

Homelessness, Rich and Poor Growing Divide, Major Concerns

Toronto, ON - With 55% support among Torontonians, the federal Liberal party would sweep the City of Toronto if an election were held today according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll. However, almost two thirds (62%) do not believe that an election is necessary at this time. Regardless, 80% believe that the Liberals will win the next election campaign and four in ten (44%) believe that the Liberal party will best respond to the needs of Torontonians compared to the other parties. In contrast, only a quarter (26%) believe that newly-minted Canadian Alliance Leader Stockwell Day understands the needs of Toronto.

The poll also indicates a number of elements that are sure to be on the minds of voters in this election campaign.

While a slim majority (52%) believe that they have benefited from the current economic boom, the disparity in respondents is evident in the fact that a full majority (67%) of those earning over $60K indicate they have benefited whereas those in the middle income range (43%) and the lowest income range (40%) are much less likely to say so. As a result, a full 82% of residents believe the differences between the rich and poor are growing in this city and a majority (57%) are worried about their financial security after retirement -- particularly middle (66%) and lower (64%) income respondents compared to higher income (46%) respondents.

When respondents were presented with three specific areas of federal responsibility and were asked to choose which one should be the federal government's top priority, "homelessness and shelter" emerged as the top ranked (53%) followed by "transit infrastructure" (33%) and "services for immigration" at 11%. This direction was further evidenced by a question which asked them (prior to the liberal mini-budget of Wednesday October 18, 2000) to take $100 and allocate it between three choices. Their choices were as follows: $41.10 to social programs, $34.30 to debt repayment and $24.50 to tax reduction. Interestingly, those in the upper income bracket are more inclined to allocate money to social programs than low income residents and less likely than low income residents to allocate money to tax cuts.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll conducted between October 13th and October 17th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 404 adult Torontonians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Toronto population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Toronto population according to the 1996 Census data.

Federal Liberals (55%) Set To Sweep Metro, Though Two-Thirds (62%) Say Election is Not Necessary at This Time

• If an election were held today, the Liberals would capture 55% of the decided vote. The Alliance places a distant second with 18% of the decided vote while the NDP comes in third at 13% and the PCs in fourth at 10%.
• When asked to say whether they believe an election is necessary to "clearly establish the direction this country will take" or whether an election is not necessary because the Liberals "have a mandate to govern for their full term" two-thirds (62%) of Torontonians say that an election is not necessary while one third (35%) say an election is necessary.
• Regardless of how they would vote, eight in ten (80%) say that they think the Liberals will win the next federal election compared with only 5% who think the Alliance will win.

Grits (44%) Positioned As Best Party To Respond to Needs of Toronto, While Only a Quarter (26%) Believe Stockwell Day Understands Needs of the City

• As far as which federal party will best respond to the needs of Toronto, 44% say the Liberals, 15% say the Alliance, 12% say the PCs and 10% say the NDP. One in ten (11%) volunteered that "none" of the parties will best respond to the needs of Toronto.
• Only a quarter (26%) of Torontonians say that Stockwell Day understands the needs of Toronto while six in ten (58%) say that he does not understand Toronto's needs.

Homelessness, Rich and Poor Growing Divide, Major Concerns

A slim majority (52%) of Torontonians say they have benefited from the current economic boom while 45% say they have not. Torontonians making $60,000 or more per year (67%) are much more likely than those making less than $60,000 (41%) to say they have benefited from the economic boom. Similarly Torontonians under 55 (58%) are much more likely to say they have benefited than those aged 55 or older (36%)

Overall, 82% of Torontonians agree that "the differences between rich and poor are growing in this city" (16% disagree). Women (85%) are more likely than men (78%) to agree with this statement.

A majority (57%) of Torontonians say they are worried about their financial security after retirement while 41% say they are not. Residents earning under $60,000 (65%) are much more likely to be concerned than higher income residents (those earning $60K plus - 46%).

Of three possible options for federal involvement in Toronto issues, a majority (53%) choose "homelessness and shelter" as the issue which should be the federal government's top priority. A third (33%) say "transit infrastructure" should be the top priority while only one in ten (11%) say "services for immigration" should be the top priority. Women (62%) are more likely than men (42%) to say "homelessness and shelter" should be the top priority, while men (42%) are more likely than women (26%) to say "transit infrastructure" should be the top priority.

Similarly, if Torontonians are asked to divide $100 between three priorities: debt repayment, social programs and tax reductions, they would allocate the largest share ($41.10) to social programs followed by debt repayment ($34.30) and finally tax reductions ($24.50). Interestingly, high income residents would allocate $41.10 to social programs compared with low income residents who would only allocate $36.60 to social programs. With regard to tax reductions, high income residents would allocate only $22.00 compared with $29.60 among low income Torontonians.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice- President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900