The Quebec Sovereignty Debate

Residents of English-speaking Canada remain opposed to a formal economic and political association between Canada and an independent Quebec, while most Quebecers continue to favour such an association in the event the "Yes" side carries in the October 30th referendum. A new National Angus Reid Poll also finds continued solid public opposition in English- speaking Canada to a number of possible specific arrangements with a sovereign Quebec -- indeed, if anything, the public in the rest of Canada is showing even stronger opposition to various arrangements than recorded earlier this year. These views contrast sharply with public opinion within Quebec where there is continued strong support for various specific post- sovereignty arrangements.

These are the main findings to emerge from a National Angus Reid Poll conducted between September 21st and 24th among a representative cross-section of 1503 Canadian adults.

The highlights of the poll's findings are as follows:

On the question of the desirability of an economic and political association between Canada and an independent Quebec, this most recent poll finds 71 percent of Canadians living outside of Quebec opposed to this concept versus 25 percent in favour of such an association. This level of opposition is very consistent with the Angus Reid Group's late-June sounding (67% were opposed), but represents a sharp contrast to the support for an "economic union" that had been registered in English-speaking regions back in 1991 (60% support in May of that year). Opposition currently ranges from 63 percent in Alberta to 75 percent across the other two prairie provinces. In Quebec, meanwhile, fully four in five (80%) favour an economic and political association between Canada and an independent Quebec, as did three-quarters (75%) in late June.

This National Angus Reid Poll also looked at public opinion regarding six possible specific arrangements between Canada and an independent Quebec. Five of these pertain to economic arrangements and were also assessed in the late-June National Angus Reid Poll. This latest sounding also examined national public opinion as to whether residents of an independent Quebec should be able to use Canadian passports. The latest results show continued solid opposition across English-speaking regions of the country to the range of arrangements examined, with the one exception of the free flow of goods between the two. Quebecers, meanwhile, express equally solid support for these elements of association. The results emerging for the six specific arrangements examined are as follows, in descending order of opposition.

Canadian Crown Corporations maintaining their head offices in Quebec:

Better than four in five (87%) survey respondents from English-speaking regions expressed opposition to this proposal (up marginally from 83% in February) while seven in ten (73%) Quebecers remain in favour.

Quebec dairy farmers continuing to receive production quotas for supplying the Canadian market:

Three-quarters (77%) are opposed outside Quebec (up from 68% in February) while six in ten (62%) remain in favour within Quebec.

Quebec residents maintaining Canadian passports:

Three-quarters (77%) of those surveyed in late September from English- speaking regions voiced opposition to this arrangement while Quebecers were almost as likely to voice support (70%). (Not appraised in February)

A common currency

that is, an independent Quebec continuing to use the Canadian dollar: Again, three-quarters (78%) of respondents from English-speaking regions voiced opposition to a common currency (up from 66% in February), while three-quarters (74%) of Quebec respondents favoured this arrangement.

A free flow of labour between Quebec and Canada

that is, people who live within Quebec being allowed to travel to work in a Canadian province, and vice versa: Sixty-two percent of those outside Quebec said they would oppose this arrangement (up from 56% in February) while 82 percent of Quebecers surveyed expressed support.

A free flow of goods between Quebec and Canada

at least as free as the current trade between Canadian provinces: This is one specific economic arrangement which enjoys the support of a narrow majority of 50 percent in English-speaking Canada against 46 percent opposed. This 4-point gap was 12 points in February. The vast majority of Quebecers (86%) continue to support a free flow of goods between Canada and an independent Quebec.

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between September 21st and 24th, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1503 Canadian adults. The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 200; Alberta - 137; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 119; Ontario - 525; Quebec - 400; Atlantic - 122. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data. With a national sample of 1503, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within 1772.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. For example, the sub-sample of 400 in Quebec provides a margin of error of 1775 percentage points, and the 1117 cases elsewhere in the country provide a margin of error of 1773 percentage points.

For further information, contact:

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900