Seven in Ten (68%) Canadians Say That Prime Minister Should Step Down - Including 58% of Liberal Supporters

Toronto, ONTARIO - A new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, indicates that seven in ten (68%) Canadians believe that Prime Minister Jean Chretien should step aside as leader of the Liberal Party before the next general election. This compares to 59% in early September 2001 who indicated that the Prime Minister should step aside. Currently, one-quarter (26%) indicate that the Prime Minister should not resign and should lead the federal Liberals into the next general election.

Among Liberal supporters, six in ten (58%) say that the Prime Minister should resign as leader and let someone else lead the party into the next election. The opposite view is expressed by four in ten (39%) Liberal voters.

However, despite recent scandals, the federal Liberals (43%; down 2 points from March 2002) remain the most popular party among decided voters in the country. In second spot are the resurgent Canadian Alliance (18%; up 3 points), who move a head of the static Conservatives (15%, unchanged). Trailing close behind are the NDP (13%; up 3 points), while the Bloc Quebecois (10%; unchanged) remain static.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between May 22nd and May 30th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 2,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Seven in Ten (68%) Canadians Say That Prime Minister Should Step Down - Including 58% of Liberal Supporters

Seven in ten (68%) Canadians believe that Prime Minister Jean Chretien should step aside as leader of the Liberal Party before the next general election. One-quarter (26%) indicate that the Prime Minister should not resign and should lead the federal Liberals into the next general election. Six percent of Canadians say they "don't know" or offered no opinion regarding this subject.

• Regionally, the highest proportion to indicate that the Prime Minister should step aside are in Alberta (77%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (75%) and Quebec (75%). A lower numbers of residents in British Columbia (68%), Ontario (62%) and Atlantic Canada (58%) also express this view.
• Older (77%) Canadians are more likely to say that Prime Minister Chretien should step aside, while younger (59%) Canadians are less likely to hold this view. Middle aged (70%) Canadians are closer to the national average on this topic.
• Canadians from higher (71%) and middle (69%) income households are more likely than those from lower income households (60%) to indicate that the Prime Minister should step down. Conversely, Canadians in the lowest income households (32%) are more likely than those in the upper (25%) or middle (26%) income households to believe that the Prime Minister should stay on into the next election.

This most recent survey represents the highest level to indicate that the Prime Minister should step aside for a new leader. Previously, the highest proportion recorded was 65% (31% stay on) in November 1998. In all other previous soundings, approximately six in ten indicated that the Prime Minister should step down. (Early September 2001: 59%; March 2000: 61%; June 1998: 58% ).

Among Liberal supporters, six in ten (58%) say that the Prime Minister should resign as leader and let someone else lead the party into the next election. The opposite view is expressed by four in ten (39%) Liberal voters.

• The highest proportion of opposition supporters calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister are among those who support the Bloc Quebecois (83%) and the Canadian Alliance (81%), followed by the Progressive Conservatives (75%), and the NDP (74%).

Despite Recent Scandals, Liberals (43%) Remain Most Popular Party

However, despite scandals that have come to light during the past month, the federal Liberals (43%; down 2 point from March 2002) remain the most popular party among decided voters in the country.

• Regionally, support for the party is highest in Ontario (55%) and Atlantic Canada (53%), followed by Quebec (38%), British Columbia (33%), Alberta (28%) and Saskatchewan /Manitoba (27%).
• Higher support for the governing Liberals is found among younger (48%) Canadians than among their older (42%) or middle aged (40%) counterparts.

Canadian Alliance (18%, Up 3 Points) Move Past Static Tories (15%) into Second Spot

Two months after the election of Stephen Harper as leader, the Canadian Alliance (18%) move up three points over the level of support recorded in March 2002.

• Regionally, the Alliance receives its highest support among voters in Alberta (49%), British Columbia (33%) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (32%). Lower support is recorded in Ontario (15%) and Atlantic Canada (9%), while in Quebec the CA receives support of only 3% of decided voters.
• Older (20%) and middle aged (19%) Canadians are more likely to express support for the CA than younger (14%) Canadians.
• More men (22%) express support for the Alliance than women (14%).

The Progressive Conservatives receive 15% support among decided voters which is unchanged from the level recorded in March 2002.

• Support for Joe Clark's Tories is highest among Atlantic Canadians (25%), followed by Ontario (19%), Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (both at 16%). Conservative support is lowest in British Columbia (14%) and Quebec (8%).
• The Conservatives receive higher support among Canadians in upper income households (18%) compared to those in middle (14%) or lower (13%) income households.

While NDP (13%) and Bloc (9%) Trail

Trailing close behind the Conservatives are the New Democratic Party (13%; up 3 points).

• NDP support is highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (22%), and British Columbia (18%). Lower support for the party is recorded in Atlantic Canada (13%), Quebec (12%), and Ontario (11%). Support for the NDP is lowest among Albertans (6%).
• A higher proportion of women (15%) than men (10%) express support for the NDP.
• Canadians in lower (16%) or middle (14%) income households are more likely to support the NDP than those in higher income households (10%).

Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (national 10%) receive support of 39% of voters, up one point from March 2002 and are now in a virtual tie with the Liberals (38%) who drop 7 points from their support level in March 2002.

To view the complete release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs, North America
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900