Tories Edge Ahead Of Grits But Still A Stalemate As Only Minority Government Viable

Toronto, ON - The latest CanWest News Service/Global News Ipsos Reid national survey pegs the Federal Conservatives with 36% support (unchanged) and the Liberals with 32% support (-2 points from a February survey). Trailing further behind the front-runners are the NDP with 15% support (+2 points), the Bloc Quebecois with 8% nationally (-1 point) and the Green Party with 8% (unchanged).

Currently, this likely adds up to a continuing Minority government stalemate with no early election advantage for any party.

The Federal Vote...

Federal Vote Support (Major Parties)

Eleven percent is undecided, or would not vote.

The closest race in the country is currently in seat rich Ontario, with the Liberals (39%, -2 points) just slightly ahead of the Conservatives (36%, -2 points), and the NDP up to 19%.

But it is in the province of Quebec where the real movement has taken place, with the Liberals (29%, +4 points) likely getting a bounce from their leading provincial Liberal counterparts in the early stages of the Quebec election, as the Bloc Quebecois (34%, -4 points) likely suffer the opposite effect with a concurrent decline in popularity of the PQ.

And, despite Prime Minister Harper's continued overtures to Premier Charest in hopes of wooing Quebec voters, the Conservatives have actually dropped in strength (18%, -3 points).

In Saskatchewan/Manitoba and British Columbia, the Liberals (21% and 25% respectively) and the NDP (23% and 25% respectively) are vying for second spot, while the Conservatives (50% and 38% respectively) in both provinces continue to enjoy a wide lead.

Regional Vote Tables (Major Parties)

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from February 28th- March 1, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1001 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

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