Tories Hit The Big Four-Oh: Majority Now In Sight

Toronto, ON - With the Conservative Government's Speech from the Throne due to be delivered next week, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that the Tories under Stephen Harper are now within sight of a majority federal government. The Conservatives, at 40% support among Canadian decided voters, have now opened up a twelve-point lead over the Liberal Party which has fallen to just 28% support nationally. The New Democratic Party, under the leadership of Jack Layton, has the support of 16% of decided voters, while the Green Party under Elizabeth May has the support of 7% of Canadians.

The Bloc Quebecois has maintained a consistent level of support since the beginning of the summer, with 33% support in the province (8% nationally). The Tories have emerged a strong federalist option with 27% support. In contrast, 18% support the Liberals in Quebec, while 14% support the NDP.

Nationally, five percent (5%) of Canadians remain undecided as to for whom they would vote in a federal election.

The Throne Speech will be an opportunity for Harper's Conservatives to lay out the government's agenda for the upcoming session of Parliament; however, if Harper constructs a speech that contains policies that aren't palatable to the opposition parties, they will have the opportunity to bring the government down and to force an election.

The likelihood of this scenario playing out may be an option as the stars begin to align for the Conservatives. In fact, seven in ten (67%) Canadians believe that `Canada is moving in the right track these days', compared to just three in ten (29%) who believe that `Canada is headed in the wrong direction. Just 4% of Canadians have not yet made up their minds in this regard.

Furthermore, supposing a federal election were to happen tomorrow, one half (49%) of Canadians would more closely identify with the sentiment that `Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election'. A slightly smaller proportion of Canadians (46%), on the other hand, more closely believe that `the Conservative Party does not deserve to be re-elected, and its time for another federal party to be given a chance to govern the country.' Five percent (5%) do not know with which statement they more closely identify.

British Columbia:

In BC, the Tories have the support of 40% of decided voters, while the NDP is in second place with 30% support. The Liberals trail at 23% support, and the Green Party is at 6% support. Six in ten (61%) British Columbians believe that Canada is on the right track these days, and 45% believe that Harper has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.

Alberta:

In Alberta, the Conservatives have the support of 63% of decided voters, while the Liberals (22%) and the NDP (6%) lag behind significantly. The Green Party at 7% support, however, is polling ahead of the NDP. Three quarters (75%) of Albertans believe that Canada is on the right track these days, while two thirds (63%) believe that Harper has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba:

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories have the support of 51% of decided voters, which is well ahead of both the NDP (22%) and the Liberals (19%). The Green Party only has 4% support in these provinces. Seven in ten (68%) Canadians in this part of the country believe that Canada is moving in the right track, while a majority (53%) believe that Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election.

Ontario:

In vote-rich Ontario, Harper enjoys support from four in ten (40%) decided voters, however the Liberals are not far behind at (37%) support. The NDP trails at 14% support, and the Green Party has the support of 8% of Ontarians. Two thirds (65%) of Ontarians believe that Canada is moving in the right track, while 45% of individuals believe that Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election.

Quebec:

In Quebec, the Bloc maintains a small plurality among voters with 33% support, while the Tories are not far behind at 27% support. The Liberals continue to have fallen out of grace in this province and have the support of only 18% of Quebecers, while the NDP are not far behind at 14% support. The Green Party has 7% support within Quebec. Seven in ten (68%) Quebecers believe that Canada is moving in the right track these days, and a majority (54%) believe that Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election.

Atlantic Canada:

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (45%) remain ahead of the Tories (37%), while the NDP (15%) and Green Party (4%) have the support of far fewer decided voters in this region. However, seven in ten (69%) Atlantic Canadians believe that Canada is headed in the right direction, while just 39% believe that Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from Oct 9 -11, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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