While BIPOC Canadians Approve of the PM and His Party, Will They Show Up to Vote?

Toronto, ON, September 15, 2021 — According to the 2016 census, nearly a quarter (22%) of Canada’s population identifies as a visible minority, with Statistics Canada projecting that this proportion will surpass 30% by 2031.[1] Using the most recent polling carried out exclusively for Global News, Ipsos takes a closer look at the political preferences of Canadians who identify as black, indigenous, and other people of colour (BIPOC) during the 2021 federal election campaign.

While BIPOC Canadians do not necessarily constitute a homogenous group, Ipsos polling has found that they are more likely to have COVID-19 as a top-of-mind consideration, generally approve of the Liberal government and Justin Trudeau’s performance, but are not particularly fervent in their support. BIPOC individuals are also less likely to say they will regret not voting and that they have a duty to vote. Adding the pandemic context in which Canadians are being brought to the polls, it may be that those who feel the most strongly about a given issue, party, or candidate will actually turn out to the polls, thereby leading BIPOC Canadians to sit this one out.

BIPOC Canadians More Likely to Cite COVID-19 as Main Concern

One area where the experiences of Canadians who self-identify as BIPOC differ from those who do not identify as such is the top issues most likely to influence their vote choice. Those who identify as BIPOC are more likely to cite COVID-19 as a top concern (33% v. 23% among their non-BIPOC counterparts). There may be two hypotheses for this. First, those who identify as BIPOC are more likely to be employed at workplaces that place them at a higher risk of being exposed to COVID-19 (such as a hotel, hospital, daycare, or restaurant). Second, BIPOC individuals are more likely to face barriers to vaccination, such as a language barrier, lack of information, or general distrust of the health system.

Canadians, whether identifying as BIPOC or not, tend to have the same major issues on their minds, but in a different ranking. Both groups generally care about COVID-19, healthcare, the economy, and affordability. However, BIPOC Canadians are less likely to have climate change in their list of main concerns (25% v. 18% among BIPOC individuals).

Top Issues Likely to Influence Vote Choice
(mentioned among top three)

BIPOC Canadians (includes Indigenous Canadians)		Indigenous Canadians		Non-BIPOC Canadians
COVID-19	33%	COVID-19	29%	Healthcare	34%
Healthcare	23%	Indigenous issues	27%	Economy	26%
Economy	23%	Housing	25%	Climate change	25%
Affordability	22%	Affordability	20%	Affordability	24%
Taxes	20%	Education	20%	COVID-19	23%

While the definition of BIPOC already includes those who identify as indigenous, it is also important to note that these individuals tend to have a slightly different set of issues related to their political decisions. COVID-19 remains top-of-mind (29%) but is also closely followed by indigenous issues (27%) and housing (25%). Affordability (20%), education (20%), and the economy (20%) round out the top five issues.

BIPOC Canadians More Likely to Approve of PM’s Performance, But Not Overwhelmingly So

Previous Ipsos polling has shown that among those who name COVID-19 as a top concern, the Liberals are seen as best-suited to deal with the issue,[2] so it is perhaps no surprise that those who identify as BIPOC are more likely to approve of the Prime Minister’s performance (56% among BIPOC individuals v. 44% of non-BIPOC individuals). However, BIPOC Canadians are not necessarily enthusiastic cheerleaders for the Liberals. While they are slightly more likely than those who identify only as ‘white’ to say that they ‘strongly approve’ of the prime minister (13% v. 9% among those who identify as only ‘white’), the fact remains that 2 in 10 (21%) also say they ‘strongly disapprove’ (v. 32% among those who identify as only ‘white’).

BIPOC individuals are also more likely to approve of the federal government’s overall management of the economy (62% among BIPOC Canadians v. 51% among non-BIPOC Canadians) and to think that Trudeau deserves to be re-elected (46% among BIPOC Canadians v. 37% among non-BIPOC Canadians). While BIPOC individuals may feel slightly warmer towards Trudeau and the Liberals than those who do not identify as such, the question remains as to whether lukewarm levels of support can translate into actual votes.

BIPOC Canadians Less Likely to Be Certain They Will Vote

Ipsos’s own polling on Election Day in 2019 found that 40% of those identifying as BIPOC say they voted for the Liberal candidate in their riding. This time around, a similar four in 10 (40%) BIPOC Canadians who have a good idea of which party they will support on election day say they will support the Liberals (v. 32% among non-BIPOC Canadians who also have an idea). Similar levels of support this year may seem like good news for the Prime Minister and his party, but being called to the polls during a public health crisis could dampen the motivations of an already tepid support base (that also names COVID-19 as their main concern).

In addition, Canadians who identify as BIPOC are less likely to say they will regret it if they do not vote (60% among BIPOC individuals v. 72% among non-BIPOC individuals) and that they have a duty to vote (71% among BIPOC individuals v. 82% among non-BIPOC individuals). However, this does not mean that BIPOC Canadians are not interested in elections; these levels are still rather high and they are no less likely than non-BIPOC individuals to say they are interested in the campaign or that their vote makes a difference.

It is also important to note that BIPOC Canadians do not necessarily constitute a uniform political bloc. Generalizations framed as ‘the BIPOC vote,’ ‘the East Asian vote,’ or the ‘Indigenous vote’ should be interpreted with caution, given that other demographic factors such as being born in Canada, time of immigration, living in a rural or urban area, level of education, or region may be more powerful in influencing political preferences. However, it would also be remiss not to acknowledge that BIPOC individuals’ experiences in Canada may differ from those who exclusively identify as ‘white’ (with the latter not consisting of a uniform group either).

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of Ipsos polling conducted between August 13 and September 6, 2021 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 6,502 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 6,002 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. From this sample, n = 849 respondents said they identified in a way other than only ‘white’ and that they are eligible to vote in the coming federal election.

The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all BIPOC Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Chhim
Senior Account Manager, Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 514 904 4336
[email protected]

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

 

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[1] Source: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/dai/btd/othervisuals/other010. Referred to in the Employment Equity Act, the term ‘visible minority’ refers to whether a person identifies as a ‘[a person], other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.’

[2] https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/majority-of-canadians-support-vaccination-mandates