Ipsos Predictions Survey 2026

2025: How it went

Two in three (66% on average globally) think it was a bad year for their country. And after a year filled with political turmoil, 90% in France say it was a bad year for their country, the highest across 30 countries.

One in two feel this year was a bad one for them and their family, while the other half (50%) said it was good. Argentinians are the most likely to say it was a bad year personally for them (67%) in the wake of dramatic political and economic shifts in Argentina in recent years.

People are feeling much better about things than they were in 2020 when a whopping 90% (on average globally) said it was a bad year for their country and 70% said it was a bad year for them personally when we did polling amid the first year of the pandemic.

2026: How it might go

Close to three-quarters (71%) are optimistic 2026 will be better than 2025, while 29% don’t think next year be better than this year. The French (41%) are the least likely out of 30 countries to think next year will be better.

Meanwhile, there continues to be muted hope that the war in Ukraine will end with a mere 29% thinking the full-scale invasion will end next year.

Just under half (49%) predict the global economy will be better in 2026 than in 2025, while a similar proportion (51%) think the economy will be worse. In a year marked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s worldwide tariff war economic sentiment dropped or stayed the same in 19 of 30 countries as some countries saw big swings in either direction.

Optimism that the future will be better than the present dropped 9 percentage points to 65% at the end of 2022 (a year marked by inflation, a global pandemic and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine) and has yet to fully recover. And belief that the global economy would be better dropped 15 pp to 46% in 2022 and remains muted.

Possible dangers loom around the corner

Slightly more than one-quarter (29% on average globally) think a major terrorist attack will be carried out in their country in 2026, while a slim majority (51%) don’t think this will be the case.

People are split on whether local public safety will get better, with 46% predicting the area where they live will be less safe in 2026 than it was in 2025.

Close to three in five (59%) think there will be a large-scale public unrest (such as protests or riots) in their country to protest against the way the country is run. The last time we asked this question in late 2019 56% thought public unrest was likely.

Since 2019, three of the G7 countries – Great Britain, Japan (both +11 pp) and the U.S. (+10 pp) – have seen a double-digit increase in the proportion that think there will be large-scale public unrest.

Almost eight in 10 (78%) expect average global temperatures will increase in 2026, with a majority in all 30 countries thinking this.

And just over two-thirds (69%) think there will be more extreme weather events in their country next year than there were this year.

Hope that public officials will take action to fight climate change is relatively stable. Almost half (48%) now predict that the government in one’s country will introduce more demanding targets to reduce carbon emissions more quickly, down slightly from the 52% who thought this was likely this time last year.

Economy, job worries hover

Almost half (48% on average globally) predict their country will be in recession in 2026, while one-third (33%) don’t think this is likely.

Meanwhile, people are split on whether their disposable income (what one can spend after paying bills for living expenses) will be higher in 2026 than it was in 2025; with almost half (47%) thinking  this is likely and 43% disagreeing they’ll have more money to spend next year.

Close to two in five (38%) think major stock markets around the world will crash in 2026, while 39% don’t think this is likely. The last time we asked this question in late 2021, a similar proportion (35% globally) thought there would be a major crash in the year ahead.

Two-thirds (67%) predict artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to many new jobs being lost in their country, up slightly from last year (64%). Meanwhile, just over two in five (43%) predict AI will lead to many new jobs being created, staying steady with last year (42%). Over the past year worry that AI will cost jobs rose in 21 of 30 countries.

Strengthening borders, shrinking populations

Just over three in five (62% on average globally) think the level of immigration into their country will increase, down from 67% who said the same last year. Americans are now the least likely to think this (29%, down from 56% last year) amid Trump’s sweeping immigration reforms since taking office earlier this year. And while Trump has said he wants a Nobel Peace Prize, only 21% currently think this is likely.

Two in five (40%) think the total population size of their country will fall, staying steady from the 41% who said the same last year.

Best laid plans

A strong majority (75% on average globally) say they plan to exercise more in 2026 than they did in 2025, with Gen Z women (81%) the most likely cohort to say this and Baby Boomer men (65%) the least likely to say they’ll be breaking a sweat more in the new year.

And 60% of all respondents say they’ll spend more time on their appearance in 2026. Gen Z men and women (both at 72%) are the most likely cohorts and Boomer men (36%) the least likely to be planning a glow up.

Meanwhile, 82% plan to spend more time with family and friends in 2026, with about eight in 10 across ages and stages planning to do so.

One in three (37%) say they will use social media less, while 53% think this is unlikely. Baby Boomer and Millennial men (both at 41%) are the most likely to claim they’ll be doing less posting and scrolling next year and Gen Z women (32%) are the least likely to think this.

Almost three in five (59%) plan to watch the 2026 football/soccer World Cup, with Gen Z men (71%) saying they’ll be tuning in while Boomer women (39%) are the least likely to say this.

*Generation Z (born between 1996-2012), Millennials (born between 1980-1995), Generation X (born between 1966-1979) and Baby Boomers (born between 1945-1965).

About the Study

These are the results of a 30-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform, between Friday, October 24, and Friday, November 7, 2025. For this survey, Ipsos interviewed a total of 23,642 adults aged 18 years and older in India, 18-74 in Canada, Republic of Ireland, Malaysia, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21- 74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.