Ipsos Opinion Poll - 7 days to General Elections, Mr. Odinga Leads in the Presidential Race

NAIROBI August 2, 2022: With less than a week to the August 9 Election, Mr. Raila Amolo Odinga is the candidate most voters would choose. The latest opinion poll by Ipsos in Kenya shows the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya presidential candidate would win 47% of the total votes if elections were held on the day the interviews were conducted.

The survey shows United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Deputy President Dr. William Ruto would win 41% of the total votes while the Roots Party flag bearer, George Wajackoya comes a distant third with 2.9%. Agano Party’s Waiga Mwaure will win 0.2% of the total votes.

The Ipsos in Kenya poll shows that Mr. Odinga could possibly bridge the 3% + 1 difference to the threshold to win in the first round given there is still 9% undeclared voters (5.1% who refused to disclose, and 3.8% who are undecided. The undeclared voters are mainly older females in rural areas and are likely to be found in Western Kenya and Coast regions.

The survey shows voters think that Mr. Odinga will win (irrespective of how they will vote on election day) – except in Central Rift, Northern Kenya, and Mt. Kenya regions.

Mr. Odinga’s popularity is highest among urbanites (51%) and among male voters (52%). It is also higher among older adults (35+ - av. 50%). On the other side, Dr. Ruto’s popularity is highest among the youth (18 – 24: 46%, 25 – 34: 43%) and among females (42%).

Mr. Odinga leads in most of the regions of the country while Dr. Ruto has a clear lead only in the Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya regions.

Regions in this case are analytical classifications of counties that have voter homogeneity as follows: 1. Coast (Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Taita-Taveta) 2. Lower Eastern (Kitui, Machakos, Makueni) 3. Northern (Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera) 4. North Rift (Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot) 5. Central Rift (Uasin Gishu, Elegyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet) 6. South Rift (Narok, Kajiado) 7. Mt. Kenya East (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi) 8. Mt. Kenya West (Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Laikipia) 9. Western (Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Trans-Nzoia) 10. Nyanza – North (Kisumu, Siaya, Homabay) 11. Nyanza – South (Migori, Kisii, Nyamira) 12. Nairobi (Nairobi County)

Mr. Odinga has a clear lead against Dr. Ruto in Coast (56% - 30%), Lower Eastern (67%-27%), Nyanza (78%-12%) and Nairobi (60% - 32%). Dr. Ruto has a clear lead against Mr. Odinga Central Rift (67% - 23%), Mt. Kenya East (78%-14%), and Mt. Kenya West (62% - 24%). Regions that are tightly contested and able to tip the election in either way are: Northern (Mr. Odinga, 46%; Dr. Ruto 40%), North rift (Mr. Odinga, 42%; Dr. Ruto 43%) and South rift (Mr. Odinga, 52%; Dr. Ruto 40%). While Mr. Odinga has a lead in Western (53%), the large number of undecided voters makes the region a battle ground.

“The Ipsos in Kenya poll was conducted ahead of the presidential debate between 23rd – 26th July 2022 and after the debate 27th - 30th July 2022 among adults aged 18+, who are registered voters, with a sample size of 6,105. All 47 Counties were covered according to their proportion of the Kenyan population. The data collection methodology was Face-to-Face interviews at the household level”, said Mr. Samuel Muthoka who is the Director, Center for Development Research & Evaluation with responsibility for East & Horn of Africa at Ipsos in Kenya during the release of the opinion poll in Nairobi.

Ipsos in Kenya employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data. Mr. Muthoka pointed out that Ipsos’ data collection platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

“Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity with the flow of the questions answered by the respondents. Sample quotas were monitored to match the sample’s statistical parameters,” he said.

According to the survey, Mr. Odinga’s sweet spot is his legacy. This is deduced from reasons given for preferring him such as being a democrat (12%), his manifesto (12%), a liberator (11%) and a nationalist leader (9%). Others opine that he now deserves a chance (8%) and is experienced in leadership (5%).

On the flip side, Mr. Odinga’s undoing would likely come from his perceived advanced age (23%) and the tag that he is a ‘project’ of the government (10%) “Those who will vote for the Dr. Ruto will do so because he presents hope, which voters point out comes from his clear plan (27%) and a better connection with the common mwananchi (9%),” Mr. Muthoka pointed out.

However, integrity is raised as single most significant headwind in his bid for the State House job with 35% of those who do not prefer him citing corruption allegations tagged to his name.

The poll shows Dr. Ruto has higher appeal in rural areas, among females and 18–34-year-olds, while Mr. Odinga is more popular among males, urbanites, and older voters.

At least 85% say they are likely to vote, while 15% of registered voters are likely to stay away from the polls. Those who say they are less likely to turn out to vote are more often urbanites (17%), females (18%), and the youth (average of 20%).

Those who are unlikely to vote give reasons such as seeing no value in voting (31%), no impact on their lives (25%), not interested (17%), elections will not be free and fair (11%) and fear of insecurity /violence (9%).

Unemployment, corruption prevention, and education are the three main issues that Kenyans would like the next government to address.

Employment and corruption prevention are highlighted more by urbanites and males, while education concerns the older voters more.

“Only a third of Kenyans feel the country is headed in the right direction, while slightly more than half feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. Older citizens are more likely to hold this view than younger citizens,” said Mr. Muthoka.

He added that four in every ten Kenyan adults are very interested in politics, more among males, and the older generation compared to females and the younger generation. Four in every ten Kenyan adults (39%) are very interested in politics. This interest is however higher among males (45%), and those aged 45 and above (av. 43%) compared to females (33%) and the youth aged 18 – 34 (av 36%).

Lack of / little interest in politics among females and youth is a recipe for voter apathy. These two groups form the largest voter constituency which could determine quality of political leaders should they actively engage and participate in the polls, said Mr. Muthoka.

Notes

Margin of error: ±1.254% at 95% Confidence Level. Punchline/ key take away:

• Voter preference is a moving target and will stabilize very close to the actual voting day. If all factors hold constant, this election will be decided by two factors:
  • Voter turnout – which this poll predicts at 85%.
  • Undeclared voters (undecided 4% + those who would not disclose 5%) or approximately two million votes.
• At the time of this poll, no presidential candidate met the 50% +1 threshold. However, Mr. Odinga Odinga has a comfortable lead (47%) against Dr. William Ruto (41%) – a six-point gap.
  • Mr. Odinga is poised to win based on how he impresses undecided voters in Western, Coast and Central (Nyandarua*) this could potentially change based on voter turnout.
• Should Mr. Odinga convert half of the undecided voters, he will win this election first round.
• If Dr. Ruto converts all (100%) of the undecided voters, he will force a re-run.
• The effect of George Wajackoya (2.9%) and Waihiga Mwaure (0.2%) is insignificant.
• The two leading candidates are clearly differentiated – and voters can identify each by their key attractions and headwinds