Ecuador: Between risks and opportunities

Widespread distrust in the political institutions characterizes 2023 in Ecuador.

06.12.23

We come together not merely as passive observers but as active witnesses to a transformative juncture in Ecuador's history – the culmination of the snap elections that unfolded on August 20 2023. A pivotal dimension of these elections was the resounding discontent expressed by the Ecuadorian population toward the preceding government. Fewer than one in five Ecuadorians held a favorable view of the previous administration's governance. This unfavorable assessment serves as a stark indicator of a disconnect between the actions of the leadership and the expectations of the public. It underscores a call for something new: for leaders who are transparent, accountable, and capable of resonating with the concerns of the citizens.

The overarching issue of distrust in governmental institutions casts a shadow over Ecuador. An astonishing 95% of the population has voiced a lack of confidence in politicians, followed closely by 92% expressing mistrust in the judicial system, with similar percentages of doubt regarding ministers, judges, and the president.

The nation's fragility, characterized by internal tension and uncertainty, adds layers of complexity to the backdrop of these presidential elections. Many fear that Ecuador is teetering on the precipice of either descending into a narco-state or becoming a failed state. The assassination of presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, has left an indelible mark on the campaign, profoundly altering its dynamics and likely influencing its outcomes. The inconceivable has become a stark reality, shaking the country to its core.

This being said, the concept of a "polycrisis" that defines the current state of the world, aligns perfectly with our current situation. Paradoxically, despite these daunting challenges, there remains a sense of optimism among global citizens concerning their personal lives, with Ecuador showing a notably robust sense of hope.

Shared values and an increasing willingness to support responsible companies and address social challenges underscore the pressing need for collective action. Nonetheless, the hurdle of low trust in governments and public services poses a significant obstacle to progress, but at the same time, a tremendous opportunity for the private sector in the country.

Ecuador, like other nations, confronts an array of challenges encompassing crime, violence, insecurity, unemployment, and the persistent issue of chronic child malnutrition affecting 20% of the country´s children under the age of two – the highest rate in South America. While the life expectancy gap is narrowing, inequalities persist based on privilege and access to healthcare.

The crisis of democratic institutions is a global concern, with widespread dissatisfaction directed towards political systems. Disinformation presents a grave threat to democracy, underlining a growing desire for change.

In Ecuador, as we saw before, the political class is deeply discredited. In contrast, trust in the private sector stands higher at 61% (Ipsos Encuesta de opinión Julio 2023). This dynamic creates opportunities for reform but also carries the risk of fueling populist and antidemocratic movements.

Nonetheless, in October’s general election, Daniel Noboa, a centrist candidate, secured a lead of four percentage points over his left-wing rival, Luisa González. In his victorious address, Noboa pledged to "restore smiles and peace to the country."

The world stands at a pivotal juncture, filled with both opportunities and risks in the face of rapid change. The outcome remains uncertain, with the potential to tip in either direction. In this context, it is evident that Ecuador aligns with global and regional trends while simultaneously grappling with its unique challenges and opportunities.

Cristina Páez

Country Manager, Ipsos in Ecuador