Advantage NDP in BC Election Campaign

Vancouver, BC, October 11, 2024 – A new Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC shows the NDP with a 5-point advantage over the Conservatives as a still competitive BC election approaches its final week. The NDP advantage is strengthened by its substantial lead among older voters.

The Issues
There are three top issues for voters in this provincial election – cost of living/inflation (51%), health care (35%) and housing affordability and availability (31%). The same top three issues, in the same order, apply for supporters of all three major parties.
Secondary issues include crime and public safety (12%), jobs and the economy (12%), social issues like poverty and homelessness (11%) and taxes (10%). 

The Horserace
The NDP has a slight advantage at this point, but the overall race is still within the margin of error. Currently, 46% of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The Conservatives are next at 41% support, followed by the Greens at 10%. Total ‘other party’ support is 3%. These results exclude the 21% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.
Age Breaks: The NDP leads among older voters (NDP 56% vs. CONS 35% among 55+ years), while the Conservatives lead among younger voters (CONS 53% vs. NDP 31%). The two parties are effectively tied among voters in the middle (NDP 43% vs. CONS 41% among 35-54 years).
Gender Breaks: The NDP leads with women (50% NDP vs. 37% CONS) and the two parties are effectively tied among men (CONS 45% vs. NDP 42%).
Region Breaks: The NDP leads on Vancouver Island (52% NDP vs. 32% CONS), but things are much closer in in Metro Vancouver (46% NDP vs. 46% CONS) and in the Southern Interior/North (43% NDP vs. 38% CONS). The Green Party does better outside Metro Vancouver (13% on Vancouver Island, 13% in Interior/North vs. 7% in Metro Vancouver).
 
Deserving Re-Election
BC voters are split as to whether this is a change election. Slightly more than four-in-ten (43%) say it’s time for another provincial party to take over, while slightly less than four in-ten (38%) say the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Two-in-ten (19%) are undecided.

The mood for change (43%) in this election is 16 points higher than at this point in the 2020 campaign (27%), but it is still 8-points lower than at this point in the 2017 election (51%) which actually saw a change in government (eventually, after a lot of drama).

Best Premier
David Eby (35%) has a 10-point lead over John Rustad (25%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of the province. Sonia Furstenau is a distant third (12%). More than one-quarter (27%) of British Columbians are still undecided.
 

Impressions of Leaders/Campaigns
None of the three main party campaigns has captured the hearts and minds of voters so far. The most positive shift is for Sonia Furstenau and the Green Party, with 20% improved impressions versus 12% worsened impressions (50% stayed the same, 18% no opinion).
The results are most negative for John Rustad and the Conservatives, with 34% worsened impressions compared to 19% improved impressions (33% stayed the same, 14% no opinion).

David Eby and the NDP are also slightly negative with 26% worsened impressions compared to 15% improved impressions (49% stayed the same, 11% no opinion).

The Debate
It doesn’t appear than any leader “won” the televised leaders’ debate. Nearly half (46%) of BC residents say they did not watch or do not have an opinion about who won. David Eby (22%) narrowly (not statistically) edges John Rustad (19%), followed by Sonia Furstenau (13%) as the leader who won (impressed you most) the debate.

Similarly, nearly half (48%) of residents say they did not watch or have an opinion about who lost the debate. But John Rustad (25%) was picked as the debate loser (impressed you least) more often than David Eby (17%) or Sonia Furstenau (10%).

The overall impact of the debate though is likely negligible. Supporters of all three main parties are equally likely to agree that the debate is an important factor in their vote choice. 45% of NDP voters, 45% of Conservative voters and 45% of Green voters agree the debate is an important factor in their vote. 
 
Vaccines
BC Conservative leader John Rustad has said that he regrets getting a COVID vaccine because of a heart problem. He is not alone as more than one-quarter (27%) of BC residents agree (13% strongly, 14% somewhat) that they now regret getting the COVID-19 vaccine. Regret is higher among Conservative voters (41% agree), followed by Green voters (32%), undecided voters (26%) and NDP voters (16%).

About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll of 1,000 British Columbians conducted October 9 to 10, 2024. The poll was conducted in partnership with Global BC online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel. These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs Canada 
+1 604 788 2417
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

“Game Changers” – our tagline – summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients navigate with confidence our rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120, Mid-60 indices, STOXX Europe 600 and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP 
http://www.ipsos.com