After Campaign Touting Leadership in Uncertain Economic Times, Tories Tumble as Only 30% Think Harper Has Economic Crisis Plan

Toronto, ON - After running on a theme of being the clear party choice in uncertain economic times, Prime Minister Harper's Conservatives are left in the final days of the 2008 election campaign fighting to convince Canadians that they actually have a plan to deal with the impact of the worldwide economic crisis on Canada: only 30% think they have one, while 55% say they don't.‪

To gain insights on the economy, an astounding 30,022 interviews were conducted in the last 24 hours among Canadians and weighted to the latest census data. ‪

Further, it would also appear that the intended message soother--that the fundamentals of the Canadian economy and it's financial system are sound--have not helped the Conservatives: only 36% say that when they hear Stephen Harper talk about the current economic crisis he makes them believe they are going to come out of the current situation "ok".‬‪ ‬‪

And, the fact that only 28% of Canadians think that the Dion Liberals have a plan to deal with the economic situation does not appear to have stopped a slide for the Tories in vote support: Conservatives (34%) are now just ahead of the Liberals (29%), followed by the NDP (18%), Bloc (9%, 38% Quebec) and Green (8%) parties.

If anything, in the absence of the Conservatives appearing to take action with a concrete series of steps that live up to the "billing"--expectations built about providing leadership to Canadians in uncertain economic times-- the playing field has been leveled. When the spotlight finally landed on the stage at the precise moment of what should have been the optimal advantage for the Conservatives, the Canadian audience was clearly looking for more of what they thought was a promised show than just the mantra of the lines that the system was sound.

Right or not on the substance, the Conservatives appear to have miscalculated on the degree of raw political emotion unfolding across the land. ‬‪ ‬‪

Nowhere is this more evident than in Ontario; the critical gateway to the fortunes of a strong Conservative minority or better. One in four (25%) fear for their jobs (a number not witnessed since the last recession of the early 1990's) and where the view of an impending recession is the highest in the country (76%)--where the volatile vote for the Liberals and Conservatives have plunged and soared for both by 10 points and now have found a temporary resting spot with the Liberals.‬‪ ‬‪

And so, in the final days of the campaign, the Conservatives will be forced to choose between two responses: the railing against the possibility of an untried "risky" venture with Mr. Dion and his tax plans or with portraying the Conservatives as having a plan to respond effectively to what troubles voters. It would appear from the polling that the latter is needed more than the former.‬‪ ‬‪

Is the outcome of this election predictable at the moment? The only thing assured is that it will likely be a Minority government, and likely a Conservative Minority.‬‪

But on precisely what the number will be, even within the margin of error, is still up for grabs.‬‪ ‬ Given the voter volatility in Ontario, an unprecedented meltdown of world financial markets and an abundance of emotion prompting mood over rational choices, Canadians may not know until the final polls are known in Victoria B.C. what shape the next parliament will take.

History recalls the 2004 Harper/Martin election where 6.5% of Ontarian's changed the apparent outcome of the election by vote switching at the last moment; or even, the last week of the 1988 election where Brian Mulroney's Conservatives snapped back from apparent defeat to send John Turner and the Liberals reeling and a returned Conservative majority.‬‪

So, as most Canadians sit down to a Thanksgiving dinner and contemplate their next day vote, they may also have to consider another potential reality: a possible coalition between the Liberals and the NDP to block the Conservatives from taking power.‬‪

The Vote in Detail...

The following is a regional analysis of the vote:

• In seat-rich Ontario, the Tories at 32% have lost 8 points in the past week alone. When contrasted with a 14-point surge for the Liberals (40%), the Tories have traded a 14-point lead to an 8-point deficit. The NDP at 18% (down 3 points) has dropped back slightly, while the Green Party in Ontario (9%) has also lost traction (down 4 points).
  • In the Greater Toronto Area, the Liberals (46%) have a commanding lead over the Tories (25%), while the NDP (20%) is not far behind. The Green Party would receive 8% support if the election were held tomorrow.
  • Outside of the Greater Toronto Area, the Conservatives (37%) and the Liberals (35%) are neck and neck. The NDP (17%) and Green Party (10%) are bringing up the rear.
• Within Quebec, the Bloc (38%, down 2 points) has a commanding lead over the Liberals (23%, down 1 points) and the Conservatives (22%, up 4 points) who are statistically tied for second place. The NDP (11%, unchanged) and the Greens (5%, down 1 point) trail significantly.
  • In Greater Montreal, the Bloc (39%) leads, while the Liberals (26%) follow. The Conservatives (14%) and the NDP (14%) are tied for third, while the Greens (7%) trail.
  • Outside of Greater Montreal, the Bloc (36%) still leads, but the Conservatives (31%) are running well ahead of the Liberals (20%), NDP (8%) and Greens (3%).
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (39%, down 1 point) continue to enjoy a solid lead over the NDP (25%, up 1 points) and Liberals (24%, up 3 points) who are in a tough fight for second position. The Greens (11%, down 4 points) have pulled back.
  • In Greater Vancouver, the Conservatives (35%) have a lead over the Liberals (29%), and the NDP (26%), but Green Party (9%) is well back.
  • Outside of Greater Vancouver, the Conservatives (43%) have a greater lead over the second-place NDP (25%), Liberals (18%) and Greens (13%).
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (61%, down 5 points) dominate the landscape over all the other parties, including the NDP (19%, up 2 points), Liberals (12%, up 6 points) and Greens (6%, down 4 points).
  • In Calgary and Edmonton, the Tories (55%) are well ahead of the NDP (22%), the Liberals (15%) and the Greens (6%).
  • Outside of Calgary and Edmonton, the Conservatives (70%) dominate the NDP (13%), Liberals (9%) and Greens (6%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (45%, unchanged) are in the lead, while the NDP (22%, down 5 points) is slightly ahead of the Liberal Party (20%, up 2 points). The Green Party (13%, up 7 points) is up from last week.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (34%, down 4 points) and the Liberals (34%, up 4 points) are in a dead heat, and the NDP (26%, up 5 points) is not far off. The Green party (3%, down 6 points) trails.

It's All About the Economy ...

To provide some context to why the Conservatives are slipping in the polls and to act as a prelude of things to come on Election Day, Ipsos Reid conducted an online poll of Canadians (n=33,022) to gauge their opinions on the economy. Here is what they said:

• Eight in ten (77%) `agree' (33% strongly/44% somewhat) that the `economy should be the next government's top priority. Just two in ten (17%) `disagree' (3% strongly/14% somewhat), while 6% don't' know.
• Just one in three (36%) `agree' (9% strongly/27% somewhat) that when they hear Stephen Harper talk about the current economic crisis, he makes them believe that `people like me are going to come out of this okay'. In fact, a majority (52%) `disagrees' (28% strongly/24% somewhat) that the Prime Minister makes them feel this way, and 12% don't know.
• Only three in ten (30%) `agree' (8% strongly/22% somewhat) that `Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have a solid plan for dealing with the impacts of the global economic crisis on Canada'. A majority (55%), in fact, `disagrees' (31% strongly/23% somewhat) with this assessment, and another 16% don't know.
• Despite Mr. Dion's 30-day approach to dealing with the current economic situation, slightly fewer (28%) `agree' (6% strongly/22% somewhat) that `Stephane Dion and the Liberals have a solid plan for dealing with the impacts of the global economy on Canada'. A majority (53%) `disagrees' (29% strongly/24% somewhat) while 19% don't know.

The data appears to show that neither of these two leaders is in touch with what Canadians are thinking and feeling about the economy. Nor have they convinced the Canadian electorate that they have a plan to deal with the situation - but expectations for Mr. Harper were much higher. Here is what Canadians feel about the current economic situation and how it will effect Canada and their own families:

• Three quarters (72%) `agree' (25% strongly/47% somewhat) that `an economic recession is coming in Canada'. Just two in ten (21%) `disagree' (4% strongly/17% somewhat), but only 6% don't know. This is likely a result of the fact that eight in ten (78%) `agree' (31% strongly/47% somewhat) that `our economy is so closely tied to the U.S. that if they have an economic problem, we have an economic problem'. Just 17% `disagree' (3% strongly/14% somewhat), and 5% don't know.
• As such, two in ten (21%) `agree' (8% strongly/13% somewhat) that they're worried about losing their job'. Most (61%), though, `disagree' (38% strongly/23% somewhat), but two in ten (18%) don't know what to think about this.
• Interestingly, Canadians are split on how involved the government should get in helping to weather the storm. Nearly one half (42%) `agrees' (9% strongly/32% somewhat) that `when governments get involved in the economy, it usually does more harm than good'. On the other hand, 45% `disagree' (10% strongly/36% somewhat) with this notion, but 13% don't know either way.
• Just four in ten (36%) `agree' (7% strongly/29% somewhat) that `we should spend whatever it takes to stimulate the economy in the short term, even if that means running a deficit'. A majority (53%) wants to avoid a deficit, `disagreeing' (20% strongly/33% somewhat) with this assessment. One in ten (10%) are unsure.

A Majority of Canadians (57%) Opt for Minority...

Thinking about the possibility that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives could win a majority following the election on October 14, an increasingly improbable event, only in three in ten Canadians (32%, down 4 points) say that they would be `satisfied' (18% very/14% somewhat) with this outcome. A majority (57%) of Canadians, though, would be `dissatisfied' (42 very/15% somewhat) if this were to happen, up 5 points since last week. One in ten (11%) do not know what to think of this situation (down 1 point).

Satisfaction with this scenario, much like vote support, varies by demographics:

• Albertans (58%, down 1 point) are most likely to say that they'd be satisfied with this outcome, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%, up 10 points), Atlantic Canada (32%, down 4 points), British Columbia (31%, down 10 points), Ontario (30%, down 9 points), and Quebec (22%, down 3 points).
• Older (41%, down 1 point) Canadians are most likely to be satisfied by this outcome, followed by younger Canadians (30%, up 1 point) and middle-aged Canadians (26%, down 11 points).
• Men (32%, down 8 points) are as likely as women (32%, unchanged) to be satisfied if the Conservatives were to win a majority.

Strategic Voting...

Four in ten Canadians (42%, up 5 points) say that they would consider voting for a political party just to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government. Fewer than one half (44%) would not consider this tactic (down 5 points), while 14% say they don't know whether or not they'd consider this, unchanged.

In terms of which party they would vote for in order to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government, among those who indicated that they would consider this tactic, four in ten (43%, up 4 points) say they would vote Liberal, while three in ten (27%, down 3 points) would vote for the NDP. One in ten (13%) would choose to park their vote with the Bloc (48% in Quebec, down 1 point), and 9% would vote for the Greens to stop the Tories, up 1 point. Six percent don't know.

Leader Impressions in Review...

The results of the poll reveal that Canadians believe that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper had the worst performance of all the party leaders this week, likely due to his apparent lack of empathy and `disconnected' approach to the way he is dealing with Canadian fears about the future of Canada's economy. Four in ten (44%) Canadians say that their impression of the Prime Minister has `worsened' over the last couple of days, compared with 12% who say their impression of him `improved' during this time. This represents a net loss of 32 points (-32). Fewer than one half (45%) say that their opinions of the Conservative Leader were unchanged.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion had a better week this week than last, but still three in ten (30%) Canadians indicated that their impressions of Dion `worsened' this week, while only 22% say their impressions of Mr. Dion `improved' over the last couple of days. This represents a net loss of 8 points (-8). One half (48%) say their impressions of the Liberal Leader have not changed.

Focusing on NDP Leader Jack Layton , it appears that Canadians overall were impressed by his performance this week. Three in ten (29%) say that their impressions of Mr. Layton have `improved' over the last few days, while only 17% say that they have `worsened'. This represents a net increase of 12 points (+12). A majority (54%) says that their opinions of the NDP leader did not change over the last few days.

Turning to Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 29% said they had an `improved' view of Ms. May over the last few days, while only 9% say their opinions of her have `worsened' in the last little while. This represents a net increase of 20 points (+20), making Elizabeth May the winner of the week. Three quarters (62%) of Canadians say their impressions of May did not change.

Within Quebec, Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe had a respectable week, with 26% of Quebecers saying that they have an `improved' opinion of Mr. Duceppe, compared with 22% who said that their opinions of him had `worsened' over the last little while. This represents a net gain of 4 points (+4). One half (52%) Quebecers indicate that their impressions of the Bloc Leader have not changed over the last few days.

Likelihood to Vote...

Come Election Day, the parties will be working hard to get their voters out to the polling stations. Overall, eight in ten (85%) Canadians say that they are at least `very likely' to vote, including 69% who indicate that they are `absolutely certain'. Examining certainty to vote by party, here is what the data reveal:

• Conservative (78%) supporters are most likely to say they're `absolutely certain' to go vote, followed by Bloc supporters (72%), Liberal supporters (68%) and NDP supporters (67%). Green supporters (60%) are the least committed to voting on Election Day.

Defecting Voters...

In order to better understand how voters are voting, examining whom they supported during the last election allows one to determine which parties' voters are switching parties between elections, and whose are staying put:

Eight in ten (81%) Conservative voters also voted Tory in 2006, while a similar proportion (84%) of Bloc voters are sticking with the same party this time. It appears that many former Liberal voters have switched back to the Liberals in the last week, with 75% of current Liberal voters (up 12 points) saying they also voted for the Liberals in 2006. One half (55%) of NDP voters are repeat voters, while 32% of Green voters say they voted Green last time.

Second Choice...

The NDP (28%) is the second-choice party for a plurality of voters, but the Liberals (25%) and Greens (23%) are not far behind. The Tories (14%) trail in this regard, while the Bloc is the second-choice of 21% of Quebecers.

• Interestingly, among Liberals supporters, the NDP (39%) is by far the most-popular second-choice, and among NDP supporters, the Liberals (36%) and Greens (36%) are tied for second choice.
• In Quebec, among Bloc voters, the NDP (39%) has emerged as the preferred second-choice, while the Greens (25%), Liberals (22%) and Conservatives (13%) trail.

Canadians Split on Liberal-NDP Coalition ...

With the Conservatives most likely failing to secure a majority, NDP leader Jack Layton has said that he might `entertain' joining with the Liberals in a coalition to prevent the Harper Conservatives from forming the next government, giving them a combined total in excess of Harper's seat total. If this happened, 43% of Canadians would `approve' (17% strongly/26% somewhat) of this course of action, while a similar proportion (41%) would `disapprove' (26% strongly/16%). Nearly two in ten (16%) don't know what to think about this.

• Support for this sort of coalition is highest in Ontario (48%), Atlantic Canada (47%) and Quebec (46%), and lower in British Columbia (37%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (33%) and Alberta (24%).
• Support is significantly higher among men (48%) than it is among women (38%).
• Liberal supporters (77%) are more likely than NDP supporters (62%) to support this idea.

Thinking about who Canadians want to lead this coalition, more Canadians believe that Jack Layton should be Prime Minister with Stephane Dion as Deputy PM (35%) than believe that Dion should be Prime Minister with Layton as his Deputy PM (26%). Interestingly, four in ten (40%) would prefer that neither of these men would lead the coalition. Interestingly, only 63% of Liberal supporters think that Dion should lead the coalition, compared to 79% of NDP supporters who think that Layton should lead the coalition.

Majority (64%) `Disapproves' of Conservative-Bloc Coalition...

On the flip side of the equation, in order to counter a Liberal-NDP coalition, the Conservatives could enter into an agreement with the Bloc, putting their combined seat total ahead of a Liberal-NDP coalition. Thinking about this scenario, just two in ten (19%) would `approve' (4% strongly/16% somewhat) of this arrangement, while a strong majority (64%) `disapproves' (48% strongly/16% somewhat) of this. Two in ten (17%) Canadians don't know.

• Only four in ten (43%) Conservatives supporters would approve of this type of relationship with the Bloc. Even fewer (29%) Bloc supporters would say the same.
• Only three in ten (27%) Albertans support this, followed by 25% of Quebecers, 25% of those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 15% of British Columbians and Ontarians, and 13% of Atlantic Canadians.

Canadians Prefer Liberal-NDP Coalition (45%) to Conservative-Bloc (20%) Coalition, But 35% Would Want New Election...

Given the possibilities that could arise as a result of likely another minority government, the data reveal that Canadians would prefer to see a Liberal-NDP coalition (45%) as opposed to a Conservative-Bloc coalition (20%). However, given the option to choose only between these two coalitions, one in three (35%) Canadians would prefer a `new election to clear the air', a higher proportion than that which prefers a Conservative-Bloc coalition.

• Support for the Liberal-NDP option is highest in Atlantic Canada (55%), followed by Ontario (53%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (43%), British Columbia (41%), Quebec (41%), and finally Alberta (27%).
• Support for the Conservative-Bloc option is highest in Alberta (28%) and Quebec (28%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), Atlantic Canada (20%), Ontario (14%) and British Columbia (11%).
• Support for a new election instead of either coalition is highest in British Columbia (49%) and Alberta (45%), and lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (34%), Ontario (33%), Quebec (31%) and Atlantic Canada (25%).

These are the findings of three Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television:

The first poll was conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1772.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. The national and regional margins of error associated with this research are as follows:

The second poll was conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2008. This survey of 1,031 adult Canadians was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel, based on quota sampling. Weighting then was employed to balance demographics and to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the Canadian adult population according to the latest Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels, not on random samples that mirror the population within a statistical probability ratio. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. However, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.,/p>

The third poll was conducted on October 9, 2008. In this instance, the entire Ipsos I-Say Online Panel (with over 250,000 panellists) was invited to participate in the survey in advance of our Election Day exit survey on Tuesday. This approach resulted in 30,022 completed surveys. Weights have been applied to this sample in order to balance demographics and to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the Canadian adult population according to the latest Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels, not on random samples that mirror the population within a statistical probability ratio. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. However, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 0.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more election commentary, please visit our blog at: http://election.globaltv.com/blogs.aspx

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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