Alberta Election - Leadership And Inevitability

Calgary, AB - A new Ipsos Reid/Global Calgary poll shows that Albertans are split as to whether Ed Stelmach has done enough during his 14 months as Premier to deserve another term in the top office. About half (46%) of Albertans think Stelmach has done enough to deserve another term as Premier, while half (47%) do not.

• Calgarians (39%) are less likely than Edmontonians (46%) or residents of the rest of Alberta (52%) to think Stelmach has done enough to deserve another term.
• Three-quarters (74%) of Progressive Conservative voters believe that Stelmach has done enough, while 22% say that he has not.

Despite the split in opinion as to whether Stelmach deserves another term, he is still the top choice as the leader who would make the best Premier of Alberta. Four-in-ten (39%) Albertans think Stelmach would make the best Premier - about twice as many that choose Kevin Taft (19%). Brian Mason (13%) finishes third, followed by Paul Hinman (5%). Fourteen percent of Albertans volunteer that none of these leaders would make the best Premier, while 12% are undecided.

• Stelmach is the top choice in all regions, but is less likely to be selected by residents of Calgary (33%) than by residents of Edmonton (39%) or the rest of Alberta (46%).

Not all voters are ready to concede another majority victory to the Progressive Conservatives. More than four-in-ten (44%) Albertans say there is still a chance that Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives will fail to win another majority in this election. This includes more than one-third (36%) of Progressive Conservative party voters and half (51%) of non-Conservative voters.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between February 14 and 17, 2008. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 804 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778-373-5130
[email protected]

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