Alberta Tories Well Out Front In Election Where Few Voters Feel Good About Their Choice

Calgary, AB - As the Alberta provincial election campaign reaches its midpoint, a new Ipsos Reid/Global Calgary poll shows the Progressive Conservatives well on their way to another majority government. The governing Tories have the support of 49% of the province's decided voters. The Liberals are next best at 28%, followed by the NDP at 14%, Wildrose Alliance at 5% and Greens at 4%. These results exclude the two-in-ten (21%) Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

Albertans are not feeling enthusiastic about their choice at this point in the campaign. Only three-in-ten (28%) Albertans say they "feel good about their choice of party or candidate". Seven-in-ten (69%) say they are "just making the best choice from the options available".

Not only do the Tories have a sizeable lead, their voters are also the most firm in their support. Only 22% of Progressive Conservative voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that they will change their mind and end up voting for a different party on Election Day. This compares to 35% of voters for other political parties.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between February 14 and 17, 2008. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 804 adult Albertans. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Alberta been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to Census data.

Progressive Conservatives (49%) Hold Huge Lead Over Liberals (28%), NDP (14%), Wildrose Alliance (5%) and Greens (4%)

The Progressive Conservatives have a huge lead among decided voters at the midpoint of the campaign. The Tories have the support of 49% of Alberta's decided voters, well ahead of the second place Liberals at 28%. The NDP is in third with 14% support, followed by Wildrose Alliance at 5% and the Green Party at 4%. These results exclude the two-in-ten (21%) Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

The current results are very similar to the 2004 election outcome where the Progressive Conservatives garnered 47% of the votes, compared to 29% for the Liberals. The biggest difference from the 2004 outcome is that the NDP is now up 4 points (14% today vs. 10% in 2004) and Wildrose Alliance is down 4 points (5% today vs. 9% for Alberta Alliance in 2004).

The regional results breakdown as follows:

• In Calgary, the Progressive Conservatives (42%) hold an 8 point lead over the Liberals (34%). The other parties include NDP (10%), Wildrose Alliance (8%) and Green Party (7%).
• In Edmonton, the Progressive Conservatives (47%) hold a 20 point lead over the Liberals (27%). The other parties include NDP (19%), Green Party (4%) and Wildrose Alliance (2%).
• In the Rest of Alberta, the Progressive Conservatives (60%) hold a 38 point lead over the Liberals (22%). The other parties include NDP (12%), Wildrose Alliance (6%) and Green Party (2%).

Only Three-in-Ten (28%) Voters Feel Good About Their Choice

Albertans are not overly enthusiastic about their choice in this election. Only three-in-ten (28%) Albertans say they "feel good about their choice of party or candidate". Seven-in-ten (69%) say they are "just making the best choice from the options available".

The results are consistent for the two major party contenders. Three-in-ten Progressive Conservative voters (31%) and Liberal voters (28%) say they "feel good about their choice".

Progressive Conservative Support Also Most Firm

Three-in-ten (29%) voters say they are either "very likely" (4%) or "somewhat likely" (25%) to change their mind and end up voting for a different party on Election Day.

Progressive Conservative voters are the most committed to their party choice. Only two-in-ten (22%) Conservative voters say they are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to switch to another party. In contrast, roughly one-in-three (35%) supporters of other parties (including 34% of Liberal voters) say they are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to change their mind.

And Conservative voters are also just as likely as supporters of other parties to say they will actually get out and vote on Election Day. Sixty-one percent of Conservative voters say it is "absolutely certain" that they will go to the polls and vote. This is essentially the same as the 62% of other party supporters (including 61% of Liberal party voters) who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778-373-5130
[email protected]

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