Alberta's Public Issues Agenda

The latest Angus Reid Poll assessing the provincial political scene in Alberta indicates that support for the Klein government continues to be strong, however, increasingly the number one issue is health care, an area which most Albertans believe is critical to the province and is suffering as a result of the government's cutbacks. Albertans are overwhelmingly concerned about health care and hospital cutbacks, as measured in an Angus Reid Poll conducted in August. Over half of Albertans mentioned health care as the most important issue facing the province (54%). No other issue such as jobs (26%), education (24%), or the deficit (22%), was mentioned by even half as many Albertans as was the health care issue.

Since February 1995, when 45% of Albertans were concerned about the deficit, mentions of the deficit as a key issue the government should tackle have dropped to only 22%. This could be a reflection of the growing sense that the government has the deficit under control.

Across different demographic groups in the province, there are substantial differences in terms of the issues perceived to be most important to the province. For instance, women and older Albertans are much more likely to mention health care than are their younger male counterparts, and the health care issue is mentioned by 60% of Edmontonians, compared to only 49% of Calgarians and 44% of people in Southern Alberta.

The popularity of the Conservative Government in Alberta can be directly linked to the personal approval and popularity of Ralph Klein. In August 1995, despite increasing concerns about health care cutbacks and selected opposition to key policies in the area of education, two out of three Albertans approve of the government's performance, and 63% approve of Ralph Klein's performance as Premier.

Although the 68% approval of the Klein Government is a slight decline from the record setting 73% approval noted in February and March of 1995, having two out of three Albertans approve overall of the government's performance is a resounding vote of confidence.

Perhaps one of the key strengths of the Klein Government is in fact the lack of awareness of opposition alternatives. For instance, half of Albertans in January 1995 were unaware of Grant Mitchell's performance as leader of the opposition, and that has declined in August 1995 to only 42% who are unsure. Among those who feel knowledgeable enough to voice either approval or disapproval, 24% approve of Grant Mitchell's performance and 34% disapprove. The same pattern is true with respect to Ross Harvey of the NDP, with 58% of Albertans in August 1995 being unsure about his performance, and 18% approving compared to 28% disapproving. In this context of unknown or unpopular opposition leadership, the strong approval ratings for Ralph Klein as premier (63% approve vs. 30% disapprove) make his dominance of the political scene in Alberta seem insurmountable.

If an election were held today, 64% of decided voters in Alberta say they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, compared to only 25% for the Liberals, 6% for the NDP, and 5% other. This proportion of Albertans who would back the Government matches the level of personal support for Klein and general approval of the government's performance.

By region, it is apparent that the Progressive Conservatives lead the opposition in every region of the province. Nevertheless, decided support for the PCs is highest in North, Central and Southern Alberta, and lower in the major cities (67% in Calgary and only 53% in Edmonton). Nevertheless, it is important to note that in Edmonton, PCs currently have a 20 percentage point lead over the Liberals in decided voter support (53% vs. 33%). Commenting on the poll results, Bruce Cameron said:

"Although the Klein Government's approval ratings have slipped slightly from the record levels recorded in February and March of 1995, it is still true that about two out of three Albertans approve of the Government's performance. The same proportion personally approve of Klein and would vote for the PCs if an election were held tomorrow. Underscoring this considerable political support is the fact that the Conservatives lead among decided voters in all regions of the province. This may be surprising to some people given the very vocal opposition to specific policies that the government has enacted with respect to health care and education cutbacks. Although many Albertans remain opposed to some of the Government's financial cutbacks in health care and education, two out of three Albertans approve of the government's direction. This support has not been eroded by opposition to some specific policy directions."

An Alberta-wide survey was conducted with a random and representative sampling of 811 adults between August 24 and 28, 1995.

Results of the total Alberta sample of 811 respondents are accurate within ±3.5%. In other words, the results of this poll would not be more than 3.5% above or below the result of a total population survey, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher for sub-samples.

This public opinion survey was conducted by the Alberta Division of the Angus Reid Group on behalf of the Calgary Herald.

For further information, contact:

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900