BC Angus Reid Poll: Political Scene

Following are top-line results for the latest BC Angus Reid Poll on BC's political scene. The poll was conducted between June 5th and 16th, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbians. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within + 4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled.

Provincial Politics

In this Summer's BC Angus Reid quarterly poll, we find a provincial population riding the coat-tails of a federal election, one which has turned its thumbs down to the Opposition Liberals, and nodded quite favourably to BC Reform, a leaderless and, to this point, invisible party on the provincial scene. Meanwhile, the governing New Democrats, and their leader, have engineered a comeback of sorts, reversing months of unfavourable poll results on a variety of fronts.

This quarter's poll appears to underline the volatility on the divided right side of the political spectrum, with BC Reform and the Liberals competing for the same vote. Moreover, with BC Reform's surge, it seems evident that while voters are looking for an alternative to the NDP, but have not yet found a home in the Liberal party. While much can be read into BC Reform merely riding a wave of the success of its federal cousins, it is troubling news for a BC Liberal party seeking to attract all right of centre voters. The fact that this "parking" of votes with an all but moribund party has now occurred two quarters in a role reinforces further the difficulties the Liberal party may be having on the ground.

Meanwhile, with all provincial eyes turned to the federal election, the governing New Democrats have re-positioned themselves on the provincial stage. Amid talking tough to the Americans on salmon, standing up to Greenpeace, stopping no-fault insurance, revamping the Forest Practices Code, and developing a new Jobs Accord with the forest industry, the NDP has shown that it has "got its legs" after a very shaky start out of the gate. Still, while the news has been positive this quarter, it is perhaps not yet time to break open the champagne; the NDP is still in third place in the polls, well behind its May 1996 election day standing.

Highlights

• The BC Liberal party retains its lead in the public opinion arena, but it has lost considerable ground to both the BC Reform party and the governing New Democrats. Currently, 34 percent of decided voters say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. BC Reform has vaulted into second place in the party standings with 28 percent of the decided vote. The NDP trails close behind at 27 percent. Three percent of people way they would vote for the Green party; and another 2 percent would vote for other parties. (TABLE 1)
• Sixteen percent of people in the province currently expresses no preference for any of the provincial parties: undecided (12%), choosing none of the parties (2%), preferring not to vote (1%), refusing to say (1%).
• This quarter's BC Reid poll finds the provincial Liberals and BC Reform exchanging voter support. The Liberals have lost significant ground, dropping a full 10 points in three months, from 44 percent in March to its current 34 percent level. This is the second consecutive drop for the party in the past six months. BC Reform, meanwhile, appears to be riding the coat-tails of their federal cousins; the party has jumped a full 10 points since the spring, moving from 18 to 28 percent of popular support.
• The governing New Democrats seem to have recovered some lost ground, having slightly increased their standing among British Columbian voters since the spring, moving up from 24 to 27 percent.
• Gordon Wilson's Progressive Democratic Alliance has lost ground, falling 3 points from 9 percent last quarter to its current 6 percent level.
• The Liberals' stronghold remains the suburban Lower Mainland (40%), but the race is somewhat tighter than in previous quarters; the party leads its closest rival - the NDP (26%) - by 14 percentage points. The New Democrats have regained their traditional lead on Vancouver Island after being well behind other parties for most of the past year; with 39 percent support, they are now 12 points ahead of the Liberals (27%) on the Island. In suburban Vancouver this quarter, BC Reform has moved into the lead (36%), with the Liberals (29%) a strong second. In areas outside the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, the Liberals (37%) and BC Reform (33%) are in a tight race, with the NDP trailing further behind (23%).
• On the question of political leadership, Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell and PDA leader, Gordon Wilson, continue to share top ranking in the public's assessment of the jobs they have been doing over the past few months. Premier Glen Clark, meanwhile, has managed to regain lost ground over the past three months, and is now within striking distance of the two Opposition party leaders. Currently, 44 percent of people in the province approve of the job Campbell is doing as Opposition Leader, and a slightly greater number (45%) are satisfied with how Wilson has performed as leader of his party. Both men are just ahead of Premier Glen Clark who garners a positive rating from 39 percent of the BC public. The BC Reform party is currently without a leader. (TABLE 2)
• Meanwhile, we find that BC public remains more critical of Premier Clark's performance as Premier than they are of other party leaders. A majority (56%) of British Columbians currently disapprove of the job Clark has been doing as Premier. This is a poorer rating than the one given to Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell (44%), or the PDA's Gordon Wilson (26%).
• Overall, however, British Columbians' views of Glen Clark have improved significantly over the past few months since our Spring 1997 poll; his approval rating has jumped a full 9 percentage points, and the number of people who disapprove of the job he is doing as Premier has fallen 10 points during the same period.
• Meanwhile, evaluations of Gordon Campbell have changed for the negative; his approval rating has moved downwards since March, from 48 to 44 percent. His disapproval rating is static at 44 percent.
• Gordon Wilson receives slightly less favourable assessments this quarter than last, including a 3 percentage point decrease in his approval rating and a 1 point drop in his disapproval rating.

Federal Politics

A few days after the vote on June 2nd, 1997, British Columbians remain committed to their election day voting patterns, with Reform holding the lead over the Liberals in the polls. Still, BC voters exhibit a curious attachment to the Liberal government; despite sending a stronger contingent of Reformers to Ottawa than last time around, the BC population expresses a good deal of confidence that the new Liberal government will take the country in the right direction over the course of its second mandate. It's as if, during the election, BC voters were sending a strong protest message to the Liberals by electing Reformers to Parliament, but, in the aftermath of the election hoopla, are not that disappointed with the final result. Indeed, satisfied with a Liberal government in Ottawa during its last mandate, British Columbians expect more of the same. They are now particularly happy about also having a strong BC voice via Reform as the Official Opposition, one which will, they believe, be quite effective in keeping a check on what the Liberals are doing.

In terms of policy priorities for the new Liberal government, British Columbians seem to want particular attention paid to economic and fiscal issues like the debt, business climate, job training, and taxes, while things like social assistance, national unity, and aboriginal treaties are less important to them. Of note, however, protecting the quality of healthcare stands alone at the top of the priority ladder.

More specifically on national unity, an issue which jumped to the front pages of the election campaign, and helped Reform win seats in BC, it seems there is an underlying malaise in the province about how the issue is likely to be played out on the national stage. While there is a comfort level developing with the approach the Reform party is taking in the national unity debates, significant numbers of people in the province believe Reform is taking too hardline a position, and, in the aftermath of the federal election, are quite worried about keeping Canada united.

Highlights

• Forty-one percent of people in BC currently support the federal Reform party, the same number as the proportion who voted Reform in the June 2nd election. However, some British Columbians appear to have changed their minds in the immediate post-election period, and to the benefit of the Liberals; 34 percent say they would vote Liberal if they had to vote all over again; this is 6 points more than the party obtained on election day. (TABLE 3)
• The NDP's popular support remains virtually unchanged - 16 percent would vote for the party now, 17 percent did so June 2nd. The same situation exists for the Progressive Conservatives (6% vs. 6%).
• Currently, 7 percent of British Columbians remain undecided as to who they would support if the federal election were to happen all over again.
• The Reform party leads in all regions of the province outside Vancouver/Burnaby, where they currently trail the Liberals (32% vs. 40%). Reform's strongest support is in suburban Vancouver (49%), where they lead the Liberals (30%) by 19 points. In the Rest of BC outside the southwest and the Island, Reform (42%) holds a less commanding lead over the Liberals (33%). A similar situation exists on Vancouver Island - Reform (38%), Liberals (33%), with the NDP (22%) registering on the public opinion needle.
• Overall, despite election night results in BC which gave Reform the lion's share of federal seats, British Columbians still give the Liberal government a strong vote of confidence in terms of the direction they will lead the country. Fully 61 percent of those surveyed say the Liberal party will take the country in the right direction; 28 percent share the opposite view, and 11 percent were unsure. (TABLE 4)
• British Columbians' policy priorities for the new Chrйtien government focus on healthcare, the deficit, and job programs. In all, 70 percent want the Liberals to devote a "great deal of attention" to protecting the quality of healthcare, 55 percent want the government to find ways to reduce the deficit and overall debt, and 54 percent feel the Liberals need to develop job skills and training programs. (TABLE 5)
• Just under half the people in BC feel the new government should spend more time on creating a good climate for business (47%), and finding ways to reduce taxes for the average Canadian. Somewhat fewer people in BC want the government to devote a great deal of attention to protecting social assistance programs for the needy (39%), dealing with national unity (30%), or negotiating treaties with aboriginal peoples (21%).
• The vast majority of British Columbians (75%) believe the Reform party will do an effective job representing BC's interests in Ottawa; 3 in 10 believe the party will be very effective. Twenty percent do not believe the party will be particularly effective; 5 percent are unsure.
• British Columbians are somewhat divided in their views of the Reform party's position on Quebec. While most British Columbians (47%) believe its position is about right for what is needed right now in the national unity debate, a full 35 percent of people in the province believe the party's approach is too hardline, with 13 percent commenting they feel it is "much too hardline". By comparison, only 6 percent think Reform's position is too soft. (TABLE 7)
• And, while a majority of the BC population (52%) is less worried about national unity as a result of the federal election, a full 30 percent say they are more worried; 15 percent say their views have not changed one way or the other. (TABLE 7)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900