BC Election 2001 Election Outcome

This BC Ipsos-Reid poll is based on a random provincial telephone survey conducted between April 19th and 23rd, 2001 among a representative cross-section of 800 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1996 Census data. With a provincial sample of 800, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +3.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

BC Election 2001 Election Outcome

(Vancouver, BC) - As the BC election campaign gets under way, the first Ipsos-Reid/Globe & Mail/VTV/CKNW poll shows the BC public is not only "ready" for a change in government, people welcome the changes a new Liberal government is prepared to make to the direction of the province. After 10 years of an NDP government, 77% of people say the NDP does not deserve to be re-elected. When they think about a Campbell government, 61% of British Columbians believe the Liberals will bring major changes to the direction of the province, and the vast majority - 77% - believe the changes will have a positive impact on BC. "The findings are pretty categorical," states Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President at Ipsos-Reid. "An NDP three-peat is not what British Columbians are seeking, and the public seems prepared to embrace the changes being proposed by the BC Liberals. The sense of optimism for what a Liberal government might do for the province is the strongest indication in our findings that the people of the province really do believe it's time for a change."

British Columbians are somewhat concerned about the possibility of a Liberal government without an official Opposition party in the legislature. While 71% of the population think it's unlikely the Liberals could sweep all 79 seats in the provincial legislature, 75% think it would be a "bad thing" for BC if this happened. In order to ensure a strong opposition exists in Victoria, fully 28% of people surveyed said they'd be prepared to switch their support to another party. "The possibility of strategic voting is unlikely to hurt the Liberals' chances of winning a strong majority of seats," notes Mr. Savas. "However, our findings show that it could help the NDP stave off any threat from the BC Green party, because Green supporters are not only most likely to switch, but more would go to the NDP than to other parties."

Vast Majority Of British Columbians (76%) Feels The NDP Does Not Deserve To Be Re-Elected

British Columbians are more than prepared to see the NDP lose power. Three-quarters of those surveyed - 76% - think the NDP does not deserve to be re-elected to another term in office, because they feel "the other major parties could do a better job managing the province". To contrast, 19% feel the NDP does deserve to be re-elected for a third term, because they say, all things considered, the party's been doing what's right for the province.

This view is shared by people living in all parts of British Columbia, and among those in different population sub-segments. Some groups are, however, more likely than others to believe the NDP does not deserve re-election. These include: men (81%), higher income earners (83%), and people living in non-union households (81%).

Politically, while one would expect non-NDP supporters to want to see the government fall, it's interesting that 18% of British Columbians who intend to vote NDP also believe the party does not deserve to be re-elected. This jumps to 55% of those who voted NDP in 1996.

61% See Major Changes To The Direction Of The Province If Liberals Win; Vast Majority Think Changes Will Be Positive (77%)

British Columbians expect the Liberals to make major changes to the future direction of the province if they win this election. Fully 61% hold this view, compared to 38% who see minor changes down the road following a Liberal victory. Of those who see the Liberals making major changes, 77% think the changes would have an overall positive impact on British Columbia whereas 20% see negative consequences of Liberal actions.

This overall pattern of views is held across all regions of the province, and among all population sub-segments, with some variations, however. For example, a greater proportion of high-income earners ($60,000+) see major changes coming with a Liberal government in Victoria (67% vs. 51% of low income earners). These same high-income earners are also more likely to feel the impact of changes will be positive (82% vs. 67% for others).

Regionally, it is British Columbians living outside of the southwestern corner of the province who are most adamant that changes the Liberals might implement would have a positive impact on BC; 82% believe this (52% strongly), compared to 71% who live on Vancouver Island.

Among those who did not vote in the last provincial election, we find that 55% expect the Liberals to make major changes in the direction of the province. And, 81% of these British Columbians believe the changes will have a positive impact on BC.

71% Of BC Public Think Liberal Sweep Unlikely; Majority Feel This Would Be A Bad Thing (75%)

Though the Liberals hold a commanding lead in the polls - an unprecedented 70% of decided and leaning voters - a majority of British Columbians (71%) think it's unlikely Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals can manufacture a complete sweep of the 79 seats up for grabs in this election campaign. Moreover, 75% of people surveyed said they felt the prospect of a Liberal sweep would be a "bad thing" for British Columbia.

In all, 29% of the BC population believe it is possible the Liberals could win all 79 seats, though only 6% think it's "very likely". And, 23% think this would be a good thing for the province.

Belief in the likelihood of a Liberal sweep is consistent across all regions of the province, and all population segments, with very little variation. However, Liberal party supporters are somewhat more likely to think their party can take all 79 seats; 32% think it's possible, compared to 1-in-5 New Democrats (20%).

And, British Columbians living in all areas of the province are in agreement that a Liberal sweep would be a "bad thing" for BC, though this sentiment is somewhat stronger in Vancouver/Burnaby (81% vs. 73% elsewhere in the province).

Among party supporters, the vast majority intending to vote for all parties (including 69% of Liberals) think a Liberal sweep would be a bad thing for the province. Not surprisingly, perhaps, NDP supporters hold stronger views in this regard (90%).

28% Of BC Voters Would Vote Strategically To Prevent A Liberal Sweep

In the event that BC voters think the Liberals might win all 79 seats in the election campaign, many are prepared to switch their vote and support another party in order to have a strong opposition party in the legislature. This is true for 28% of all voters, and 29% of those who think a Liberal sweep would be a bad thing for BC.

Among those most likely to vote strategically to prevent a Liberal sweep, we find a greater proportion of lower to middle income earners (32% vs. 28% overall), and individuals living in private sector union households (41% vs. 28% of public sector and 25% of non-union households).

Among party supporters, it's BC Greens (42%), the currently uncommitted voters (47%), and people who did not vote in the last provincial election (36%) who are most likely to say they'd vote strategically in order to have a strong opposition in the BC legislature.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610 (office)