BC Election 2001 Party Leaders
Fully 46% choose Gordon Campbell as the party leader best suited to be Premier of BC. Though this is down 7 points from the beginning of the campaign, Campbell is still a very significant 21 points ahead of his nearest rival, NDP leader Ujjal Dosanjh (25%, down 2 points). Green party leader, Adriane Carr, has won over 10% of British Columbians (up 3 points), while Chris Delaney garners 6% support (up 3 points).
Once again, the polls are unflattering when it comes to judging the public's mood towards the NDP and its election campaign performance. Fully 38% of people surveyed said their views of Ujjal Dosanjh and his party have gotten worse since the beginning of the campaign, compared to just 13% who have more positive views of the Premier at the end of the campaign. For Gordon Campbell, the public is more mixed in its reviews (22% improved vs. 21% gotten worse).
Adriane Carr and the BC Green party have some clear momentum as the campaign winds down; fully 33% say their views of the Green leader and her party have "improved" since the drop of the writ, while only 8% say their views are now worse than what they were.
For Chris Delaney, 14% are more positive toward the Unity BC party leader at the end of the campaign, while 11% say their opinions have gotten worse.
Among those who watched the televised leaders' debate, more were impressed by BC Liberal leader Gordon Campbell (29%) than the other party leaders (Carr - 21%, Dosanjh - 16%, Delaney - 13%).
"If poll results can be used to gauge the public's reaction to the various parties performance during the election campaign, it's clear the NDP has failed to impress the people of BC. It's equally clear the leaders' debate made it possible for the Greens and Unity BC to gain some degree of credibility, and siphon off support from Liberal leader Gordon Campbell," observes Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President at Ipsos-Reid. "There is nothing in the findings that suggests the NDP has done anything to reverse a generally negative perception of the party that existed at the outset of the campaign. This has not only given the BC Liberals an opportunity to fill the void, but it has allowed the BC Green party to position itself much more credibly in the public's mind. Both trends threaten to further erode support for the NDP, and undermine the party's chances of winning any seats in this election."
CAMPBELL (46%) OUTDISTANCES DOSANJH (25%) AS BEST PREMIER; CARR IMPROVES STANDING (10%)
Regardless of the party they might support in the 2001 election campaign, most British Columbians think BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, would make the best Premier for BC. Fully 46% choose Campbell for this position, compared to almost half as many who choose the current Premier, NDP leader Ujjal Dosanjh (25%). Campbell also outdistances Green party leader, Adriane Carr (10%), and Unity BC chief, Chris Delaney (6%), by a large margin. In all 12% were unable to pick any of the four party leaders.
Despite his popularity, views of Campbell have dropped 7 points since the beginning of the election campaign (53% to 46%). This is largely due to the public holding more favourable views of Carr (up 3 points) and Delaney (up 3 points). Meanwhile, Dosanjh's ranking has dropped an insignificant 2 points since the beginning of the campaign.
Campbell's overall popularity holds across all regions of the province, and with people in different population segments. Still, he is the preferred choice of a greater proportion of suburban Vancouver residents (55%), and individuals living in non-union households (51%). He also receives the nod from 74% of Liberals, 20% of Unity BC supporters, 9% of Green party supporters, 7% of those currently intending to vote NDP, and 14% of the uncommitted vote.
Dosanjh obtains greater support for his leadership among Vancouver/Burnaby (30%) and Rest of BC (29%) residents. He is also the favourite among a greater number of high income earners (32%), and individuals living in union households (34%). Dosanjh receives favourable reviews from 79% of NDP supporters, but also gets the nod from 31% of Green party supporters, 14% of Unity BC voters, 13% of Liberals, and 17% of the uncommitted public.
Adriane Carr receives more favourable reviews from Lower Mainland (12%) and Vancouver Island (15%) residents, and is particularly popular among a greater proportion of younger British Columbians (16%). Carr is seen as the best Premier by less than half her party's supporters (46%), and obtains positive reviews from 9% of NDP supporters, 4% of Liberals, and 9% of the uncommitted vote.
Chris Delaney's popularity is consistently low across all regions and population segments.
GREEN PARTY GAINS MOMENTUM AT END OF CAMPAIGN; BC PUBLIC CONTINUES TO BE MORE CRITICAL OF NDP
The BC Green party has gained credibility among BC voters as the election campaign heads into its final stretch. With just over a week to go until voting day, a third (33%) of those surveyed say their opinion of Adriane Carr and the Green party has improved since the beginning of the campaign. Only 8% state their views have gotten worse. When we contrast the positive and negative reviews, Carr and the Greens end up with a +25 momentum rating, which is well above all other parties.
The front-running Liberals are in somewhat of a holding pattern when it comes to momentum. In all, 22% of the BC public say their views of Gordon Campbell and the Liberals have become more positive since the beginning of the campaign, while 21% have more negative opinions. The net momentum rating is +1. Ujjal Dosanjh and the New Democrats have failed to impress BC voters throughout the campaign. Currently, only 13% of those surveyed say their opinions of the NDP have improved since the beginning of the campaign, while fully 38% share more negative views of the New Democrats. As Dosanjh and his party head into the last week of the campaign, they find themselves with a -25 momentum rating.
Chris Delaney and Unity BC are given mixed reviews from the BC public. While 14% say their opinions of Delaney and his party have improved, 11% hold more negative views, for a momentum rating of +3.
BC PUBLIC MOST IMPRESSED BY CAMPBELL (29%) AND CARR (21%) IN ELECTION DEBATE; LEAST IMPRESSED BY DOSANJH (16%) AND DELANEY (13%)
BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, emerged as the winner of the televised leaders' debate last week, but his performance did not garner an overly enthusiastic response from viewers. When asked, 29% of those surveyed said that Campbell impressed them the most, enough to surpass all other party leaders. However, BC Green party leader, Adriane Carr comes in a not too distant second, with 21% of viewers stating that she impressed them the most.
Current Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh, obtained positive reviews from just 16% of people who watched the televised leaders' debate. Chris Delaney emerged the winner for 13% of viewers.
In all, 17% of people who watched the leaders' debate said that "none" of the leaders impressed them. Another 3% were unable to offer an answer. Further analysis reveals that the debate did have a positive impact on the public's view of Green party leader, Adriane Carr. Among people who watched the debate, 41% also say their opinions of Carr and her party have improved since the beginning of the campaign (compared to 33% of British Columbians overall).
Unity BC leader, Chris Delaney, also appears to have benefited from his participation in the debate. Among those who watched the debate, 26% also say their views of Delaney and his party have improved over the course of the campaign (14% overall).
Views of BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, and NDP leader, Ujjal Dosanjh, were not affected to the same degree by the leaders' debate. The differences between those who viewed the debate and the general population are not statistically significant.
TELEVISED LEADERS' DEBATE NOT SEEN AS IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW PEOPLE WILL VOTE (52% NOT AT ALL)
Poll findings suggest that party leaders need not worry too much about their performance during the 2001 televised leaders' debate, because few British Columbians watched the debate, and, even fewer say the debate has played a part in helping them make up their mind about who they will vote for. In all, just 41% of those surveyed said they watched the leaders' debate, another 29% said they read, saw, or heard highlights and analysis of the debate. Thirty percent did not watch or hear about the debate.
Among those who took the time to watch the debate, or had the opportunity to see highlights and analysis of it, 25% feel it was an important factor (7% very important) in helping them come to a decision about which party they will vote for in this election campaign. By comparison, fully 75% do not believe the debate was an important factor in determining their voting choice; over half (52%) say it was "not at all important" in their decision.
Views of the importance of the debate are consistent across all regions and population segments. However, there are some variations based on which party people are intending to vote for on May 16th. For example, 49% of current Green party voters say the debate was a factor in helping them make a decision to support the Greens (22% very important). Meanwhile, 26% of NDP voters said the debate played a role in their decision (8% very important).
Established in 1979, Ipsos-Reid is Canada's leading market research and public opinion company. It is best known for the Angus Reid Express poll, the most widely quoted source of public opinion in the country. Founded by Dr. Angus Reid, Ipsos-Reid has conducted extensive market and social research in 80 countries and in 40 languages, and serves clients around the world through more than 300-professionals and 1,000 data collection staff in 11 offices. The company is a member of the Paris-based Ipsos Group, ranked among the top ten research companies in the world, with specialties in advertising, media, customer satisfaction, public opinion and market research.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610 (office)
