BC Election 2001 Voter Motivation

Vancouver, BC - As the BC election campaign enters its final week, the latest Ipsos-Reid/CKNW/VTV survey shows Ujjal Dosanjh and the NDP retaining only four-in-ten 1996 NDP supporters. The majority of past NDP voters intend to vote BC Liberal (34%) or Green Party (21%) in this election. In contrast, the BC Liberals retain nine-in-ten of their 1996 supporters and pick up three-in-four 1996 BC Reform voters. "Any rally by the NDP has to start with their base vote of past supporters," comments Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President at Ipsos-Reid. "These numbers give no indication that past NDP support is going to return over the last few days of this campaign. This suggests the NDP's chances of winning any seats in is jeopardy."

The NDP's overall performance in managing the government is the primary factor driving 1996 NDP voters toward other parties. Two-thirds of 1996 NDP voters who are now supporting other parties say the NDP's record in managing the government is the single most important reason they are not going to vote NDP this time around. Far less important reasons include past NDP leadership (13%), present NDP leadership (3%), local NDP candidates (3%) and the NDP's current campaign platform (3%). Mr. Savas observes there is a slight silver lining for Mr. Dosanjh in these results, "Perhaps Ujjal Dosanjh can find some solace in the fact that voters are rejecting ten years of government mismanagement and not his one year of leadership. And it must also be satisfying to see that past NDP leadership is cited more than four times as often as current leadership."

A majority of voters have positive reasons for selecting their preferred party. Fifty-seven percent say they are voting more FOR their preferred party than AGAINST (41%) another party. Fully six-in-ten BC Liberal voters now say they are voting more FOR the BC Liberals than AGAINST the NDP. This is a significant improvement our early campaign survey when only four-in-ten BC Liberals said they were voting FOR the BC Liberals. Comments Mr. Savas, "Gordon Campbell has clearly done a good job in this campaign in giving voters positive reasons to support his party on election day."

BC LIBERALS BUILDING SUPPORT WITH COALITION OF 1996 VOTERS (89% LIBERALS, 75% BC REFORMERS, 34% NDPers) 1996 NDP CORE SPLIT BETWEEN NDP (41%), BC LIBERALS (34%) AND GREENS (21%)

The BC Liberals can count on the renewed support of most of their 1996 voters. Eighty-nine percent of decided 1996 BC Liberals say they intend to vote for that party again in this election. In addition, the BC Liberals have picked up 75% of those who voted BC Reform in 1996. Only 9% of 1996 BC Reform voters say they will vote for the newly formed Unity BC.

1996 NDP voters are split between supporting the NDP and the BC Liberals in this election. Forty-one percent of decided 1996 NDP voters intend to support the NDP again in this election, while 34% intend to support the BC Liberals. In a somewhat positive sign for the NDP, this is the reverse of the finding in an early campaign survey when 43% said they would vote BC Liberal versus 37% for the NDP. Twenty-one percent of past NDP voters say they intend to vote for the Green Party on May 16th.

Most new voters - those who did not vote in 1996 or who were not eligible to vote - say they will support the BC Liberals in this election. Sixty-two percent of decided new voters say they will back the BC Liberals. The remaining new voters go 15% to the NDP, 14% to the Green Party, 5% to the Marijuana Party and 2% to Unity BC.

NDP RECORD IN GOVERNMENT MAIN REASON (66%) DRIVING 1996 NDP VOTERS TO SWITCH; LEADERSHIP A DISTANT SECOND REASON (16%)

1996 NDP voters who now intend to vote for another party were asked to state the most important reason for switching their support in this election. We asked these "switchers" to select from a list of reasons including present NDP leadership, past NDP leadership, the NDP's record in managing the government, their NDP local candidate, the NDP's current platform, and a preference for another party's leader, candidate or platform.

The dominant reason for "switching" their support in this election is the NDP's overall record in managing the government. Sixty-six percent chose the NDP's record in managing the government as the single most important reason for changing their vote in this election.

While NDP leadership is a much less important factor (16% selected), it is a positive sign for Ujjal Dosanjh that many more "switchers" chose past NDP leadership (13%) than chose present NDP leadership (3%).

Seven percent of "switchers" say they are voting for another party not because of anything to do with the NDP, but rather because of a preference for the leaders, candidate or platform of that other party. Only 3% of those who have abandoned the NDP in this election say they are doing so because of their local NDP candidate; and only 3% say the current NDP platform is their most important reason.

MAJORITY VOTING FOR A PARTY (57%) RATHER THAN AGAINST (41%) ANOTHER PARTY; BC LIBERAL SUPPORTERS MOST LIKELY TO BE VOTING FOR THEIR PARTY (60% FOR)

The majority (57%) of decided voters say they are voting FOR their intended party rather than AGAINST (41%) another party in this election. The breakdown by party follows:

• BC Liberal supporters are the most likely to be voting FOR their party. Sixty percent say they are voting FOR the BC Liberals compared to 38% who are voting AGAINST the NDP. This result is dramatically different than in our early campaign survey when 57% said they were voting AGAINST the NDP, compared to 42% who were voting FOR the BC Liberals.
• The majority (55%) of Green Party supporters are also voting more FOR the Green Party than AGAINST (42%) another party or parties. Twenty-six percent of Green Party supporters are voting AGAINST the BC Liberals and 20% are voting AGAINST the NDP.
• Fifty-three percent of NDP supporters are voting FOR their party in this election versus 41 percent who are voting AGAINST the BC Liberals. Four percent of NDP supporters say they are voting AGAINST other parties.

Established in 1979, Ipsos-Reid is Canada's leading market research and public opinion company. It is best known for the Angus Reid Express poll, the most widely quoted source of public opinion in the country. Founded by Dr. Angus Reid, Ipsos-Reid has conducted extensive market and social research in 80 countries and in 40 languages, and serves clients around the world through more than 300-professionals and 1,000 data collection staff in 11 offices. The company is a member of the Paris-based Ipsos Group, ranked among the top ten research companies in the world, with specialties in advertising, media, customer satisfaction, public opinion and market research.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610 (office)