BC Election 2001 Voter Participation And Vote Change

This BC Ipsos-Reid poll is based on a random provincial telephone survey conducted between April 19th and 23rd, 2001 among a representative cross-section of 800 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1996 Census data. With a provincial sample of 800, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +3.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

BC Election 2001 Voter Participation And Vote Change

(Vancouver, BC April 26, 2001) - The latest Ipsos-Reid / CKNW / VTV / Globe & Mail BC election survey shows BC voters have not lost interest in this election, despite a seemingly unassailable lead held by the BC Liberals. Eight-in-ten (78%) eligible voters surveyed say they will "definitely" vote on election day. No party appears to have an edge in getting their supporters to the polls, as 83% of BC Liberal voters, 77% of Green Party voters and 76% of NDP voters say they will "definitely" vote. "This is a very encouraging sign for a strong turn-out," comments Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President of Ipsos-Reid's Vancouver office. "When we asked the same question at the end of the 1996 campaign, 73% said they would definitely vote, just 1% higher than the actual turnout of 72%."

When asked whether their vote is influenced most by issues, leaders, candidates or past party support, 48% of BC voters say the parties' stand on the issues is most important. Next most important are party leaders (21%) and individual candidates (20%). "With most British Columbians believing the Liberals can do the best job on the issues, these findings clearly give the Liberals an advantage when people go into the ballot box on voting day."

Green Party supporters are the most likely to shift allegiances as this campaign progresses. Sixty-one percent of Green Party voters are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to change their mind and vote for another party. Comparable rates are 33% among NDP voters and 23% among BC Liberal voters. If unable to support their first choice, Green Party voters are somewhat more likely to vote NDP (33%) than to vote BC Liberal (21%). Mr. Savas observes, "The wildcard in this campaign is what's going to happen to Green Party support as we near voting day. Are their voters going to stay the course to deliver a message or not? And is that message meant for the NDP or the BC Liberals? At the end of the day, the actions of Green Party supporters will likely determine the number of seats in which the NDP can seriously challenge the BC Liberals."

Eight-In-Ten Eligible Voters "Definitely" Intend To Cast A Vote On Election Day

The vast majority of BC voters intend to go to the polls on voting day. Seventy-eight percent of BC voters surveyed say they will "definitely" vote on May 16th. This question can be a good predictor of actual turnout. In a poll conducted just prior to the 1996 provincial election, 73% of eligible voters told Ipsos-Reid they were "absolutely certain" to vote - just 1% higher than the actual turnout of 72%.

Supporters of each of the three major parties are highly committed to showing up on voting day. Eighty-three percent of BC Liberal voters, 77% of Green Party voters and 76% of NDP voters say they will "definitely" go to the polls and vote on election day.

In a pattern similar to many Canadian elections, younger voters are the least likely to say they will vote on election day. Sixty-four percent of eligible voters under 35 years of age say they will "definitely" vote, compared to 86% of those aged 35 or older.

Issues Count - 50% Say They Will Vote Based On A Party's Stand On The Issues

BC voters were asked whether the parties' stand on the issues, the ability of the party leaders, the qualities of the individual candidates, or a history of support for a particular party would be most important in deciding which party to support in an election. Issues are most important to BC voters, as nearly half (48%) say the parties' stand on the issues will be the deciding factor in their vote decision. Next most important are the ability of the party leaders (21%) and the qualities of the individual candidates (20%). Nine percent of voters say a history of support for a particular party is their most important consideration.

Three-In-Ten Decided Voters Are "Very Likely" Or "Somewhat Likely" To Change Their Vote; Rate Is Double Among Green Party Supporters

Only 5% of decided voters say they are "very likely" to change their mind and end up voting for another party on election day. An additional 25% of decided voters say they are "somewhat likely" to end up voting for another party. This means, potentially 30% of voters could switch parties between now and May 16th. Seventy percent of decided voters are "not very likely" or "not at all likely" to change their mind.

Green Party voters are by far the most likely to consider voting for another party on election day, which confirms the party's generally "soft" vote. Six-in-ten (61%) Green Party voters are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to change their mind and end up voting for another party on election day. In stark contrast, only 23% of BC Liberal voters and 33% of NDP voters are "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to change their mind and end up voting for another party on election day.

Half Of Decided Voters Have No Second Choice; Green Party Supporters More Likely To Turn To NDP Than To BC Liberals

Overall, 18% of decided voters say the Green Party would be their second choice if for some reason they were unable to vote for their currently preferred party on election day. Unity BC and the NDP are each the second choice of 12% of decided voters, followed by the BC Liberals at 8% and other parties at 3%. Given that only 3-in-10 decided voters are likely change their mind before voting day, it is not surprising that fully one-half (47%) of decided voters do not even have a second choice party.

By a 3-to-2 margin, Green Party voters - the most likely to vote for a second choice - prefer the NDP to the BC Liberals as their second choice. Thirty-three percent would vote NDP as their second choice and 21% would vote BC Liberal. Thirty-seven percent of Green Party voters are uncommitted to a second choice party.

NDP voters are evenly split between the Green Party and the BC Liberals as their second choice. Thirty-percent would support the Green Party and 28% would support the BC Liberals. Thirty-eight percent of NDP voters are uncommitted to a second choice.

A majority (53%) of BC Liberal voters is uncommitted to a second choice party. Eighteen percent would support the Green Party, 16% Unity BC and 11% the NDP.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610 (office)