BC Election 2005 - Part III: What's Driving The Vote?

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Vancouver, BC -- How individual British Columbians are voting in this provincial election depends to a great extent on what they think this election is all about, according to an Ipsos-Reid survey conducted on behalf of BCTV News, The Vancouver Sun and The Victoria Times Colonist.

The BC Liberals have a substantial lead among voters who think this election is about "keeping BC's economy moving forward", "having a vision for the future", "who would make the best Premier" or "who is the best local candidate".

In contrast, the NDP have a substantial lead among voters who think this election is about "health care/education" or "who can be trusted to keep their promises".

Voters who think this election is about "who has the most balanced approach" or the "Liberal record over the last four years" are almost evenly split in their support of the two main contending parties.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid telephone poll conducted April 23rd to 26th, 2005 with a randomly selected sample of 1,050 adult British Columbia residents, including 400 residents of Vancouver Island. The overall results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire BC adult population been polled. The Vancouver Island results are considered accurate to within 1774.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to the 2001 Census.

What Is This Election About?

Every election has a "ballot question". This is the main question voters consider when making their final choice on Election Day. We tested eight different "ballot questions" with survey respondents in order to find out what this election is about to them personally1. The top two "ballot questions" are about the economy and health care/education.

  • 54% of residents think this election is mostly about "who is best to keep BC's economy moving forward".
  • 53% of residents think this election is mostly about "who is best on issues like health care and education".
The second tier of "ballot questions" includes vision, balance and trust.
  • 49% of residents think this election is mostly about "who has the best vision for the future".
  • 47% of residents think this election is mostly about "who has the most balanced approach to benefit all British Columbians".
  • 45% of residents think this election is mostly about "who can be trusted to keep their election promises".
Less relevant "ballot questions" include leadership, the Liberal record and local candidates.
  • 36% of residents think this election is mostly about "who will make the best Premier of British Columbia".
  • 32% of residents agree this election is mostly a "referendum on the BC Liberal record over the last four years".
  • 29% of residents think this election is mostly about "who is the best candidate to represent your riding".
Who Wins On Each Ballot Question?

The overall vote among decided voters in this election campaign currently stands at 46% BC Liberal, 39% NDP and 13% Green Party. What's interesting is to look at how the decided vote splits out depending on which "ballot question" is of importance to voters. This reveals the key drivers of vote for each party.

The BC Liberals have a huge lead among voters who are basing their decision on the economy. They also have substantial a lead among vision voters and leadership voters. The "incumbent factor" likely leads to a significant Liberal lead among candidate voters.

  • The BC Liberals lead by 39-points (64% Libs vs. 25% NDP) among voters who say this election is about "who is best to keep BC's economy moving forward".
  • The BC Liberals lead by 22-points (56% Libs vs. 34% NDP) among voters who say this election is about "who has the best vision for the future".
  • The BC Liberals lead by 16-points (53% Libs vs. 37% NDP) among voters who say this election is about "who will make the best Premier of British Columbia".
  • The BC Liberals lead by 9-points (49% Libs vs. 40% NDP) among voters who say this election is about "who is the best candidate to represent your riding".
The NDP have a substantial lead among voters who are basing their decision on trust and the issues of health care and the economy.
  • The NDP lead by 19-points (52% NDP vs. 33% Libs) among voters who say this election is about "who can be trusted to keep their election promises".
  • The NDP lead by 18-points (51% NDP vs. 33% Libs) among voters who say this election is about "who is best on issues like health care and education".
The two main parties are essentially tied with voters who care most about balance and the Liberal record.
  • The BC Liberals lead by 4-points (46% Libs vs. 42% NDP) among voters who say this election is about "who has the most balanced approach to benefit all British Columbians".
  • The NDP lead by 4-points (44% NDP vs. 40% Libs) among voters who say this election is a "referendum on the BC Liberal record over the last four years".
The Vancouver Island Perspective

As part of this Ipsos-Reid poll, The Victoria Times Colonist commissioned an additional "oversample" of Island residents to bring the total Vancouver Island sample size to 400, including 200 residents in the Capital Region District (CRD) and 200 residents in the rest of the Island.

What is the Ballot Question? The top "ballot questions" for Vancouver Island residents are health care/education, balance, vision and the economy. The full list of "ballot questions" is listed below2.

  • 57% think this election is mostly about "who is best on issues like health care and education".
  • 53% think this election is mostly about "who has the most balanced approach to benefit all British Columbians".
  • 52% think this election is mostly about "who has the best vision for the future".
  • 52% think this election is mostly about "who is best to keep BC's economy moving forward".
  • 47% think this election is mostly about "who can be trusted to keep their election promises".
  • 35% think this election is mostly about "who will make the best Premier of British Columbia".
  • 33% think this election is mostly about "who is the best candidate to represent your riding".
  • 31% think this election is mostly a "referendum on the BC Liberal record over the last four years".
Who Wins on Each Ballot Question? The only "ballot question" that substantially favours the BC Liberals is the economy (Libs +31 points). The NDP, on the other hand, has a substantial vote lead on the "ballot questions" of health care/education (NDP +33 points), trust (NDP +32 points), the Liberal record (NDP +25 points) and balance (NDP +16 points).

The two main parties are effectively tied on the "ballot questions" of vision (Libs +3 points), local candidates (NDP +3 points) and leadership (tie).

1Note - survey respondents were allowed to (and did) agree with multiple "ballot questions".

2Note - survey respondents were allowed to (and did) agree with multiple "ballot questions".

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Corporation
604.257.3200
[email protected]

Ipsos-Reid
Ipsos-Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos-Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada--including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country--all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos-Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

Ipsos
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