BC Election Day Nears - Part III: Campaign Excitement And Who Will Win

Vancouver, BC -- A new Ipsos-Reid survey conducted on behalf of BCTV News, The Vancouver Sun and The Victoria Times Colonist shows that the public hasn't exactly been captivated by the BC election campaign. Only 6% of voters say this election campaign has been "more exciting" than other campaigns. In contrast, three-in-ten (29%) voters say this campaign has been "more boring" than most. The bulk of the public, two-thirds (64%), say the campaign has been "about average" in terms of excitement.

One possible reason for the low level of campaign excitement is a perceived lack of suspense over the election winner. Eight-in-ten (80%) British Columbians think the BC Liberals will win the provincial election on May 17th. Only 15% of residents think the NDP will win. Even most NDP supporters (68%) and Green Party supporters (74%) think the BC Liberals will win.

While very few British Columbians predict an NDP victory on May 17th, about one-third (33%) of voters still believe the NDP has a shot to win. A belief that the NDP can overcome the BC Liberal lead and win is stronger among NDP voters (54% say the NDP can win) and Green Party voters (45%) than among BC Liberal voters (15%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid telephone poll conducted May 8th to 10th, 2005 with a randomly selected sample of 1,050 adult British Columbia residents, including 400 residents of Vancouver Island. The overall results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire BC adult population been polled. The Vancouver Island results are considered accurate to within 1774.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to the 2001 Census.

The Vancouver Island Perspective

As part of this Ipsos-Reid poll, The Victoria Times Colonist commissioned an additional "oversample" of Island residents to bring the total Vancouver Island sample size to 400, including 200 residents in the Capital Region District (CRD) and 200 residents in the rest of the Island.

Campaign Excitement: Only 5% of Vancouver Island voters say this election campaign has been "more exciting" than other campaigns. In contrast, three-in-ten (28%) voters say this campaign has been "more boring" than most. Two-thirds (66%) of Island residents say the campaign has been "about average" in terms of excitement. The results are similar in the CRD (6% more exciting vs. 29% more boring) and the Rest of the Island (5% more exciting vs. 26% more boring).

Who Will Win: Three-quarters (74%) of Vancouver Island voters think the BC Liberals will win the provincial election on May 17th. Slightly more than two-in-ten (23%) residents think the NDP will win. A belief the BC Liberals will win is stronger in the CRD (79%) than in the Rest of the Island (69%).

Can the NDP Win: While the NDP may not be the favourite, a sizable minority (44%) of Island residents think the NDP still has a shot to win. A belief that the NDP can win is stronger in the Rest of the Island (47%) than in the CRD (41%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Corporation
604.257.3200
[email protected]

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Ipsos-Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos-Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada--including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country--all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos-Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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