BC Liberals Hold Commanding Lead in Polls

Public Sector

Premier Ujjal Dosanjh Obtains Solid Approval Rating, But Criticism Growing

20 June 2000

Campbell Closes Gap on Dosanjh When It Comes to Who Public Sees as Best Premier

57% of Decided Voters Support The BC Liberals; 16% Back The NDP, and 15% Support BC Reform

64% of British Columbians Approve of Dosanjh's Performance As Premier; Disapproval Has Jumped To 32% From 21% In March

40% Think Dosanjh Would Make Best Premier; 38% Choose Campbell, Up 4 Points From March

Vancouver, BC - A recent Angus Reid Group poll reveals that the BC Liberals hold a commanding lead in popular support in British Columbia. Among decided voters, 57 percent support the Liberals compared to only 16 percent for the governing NDP; BC Reform is at 15 percent. "This cannot be seen as anything but bad news for the NDP", reports Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs (Vancouver). "After a significant rebound in popular support last February following Dosanjh's leadership victory, it looked like the NDP was turning things around. This is certainly a setback in the party's bid to regain the public's confidence under the new Dosanjh administration".

On the leadership front, 64 percent give Ujjal Dosanjh very positive reviews for his performance as Premier, a 5-point increase since March. However, while Dosanjh remains well ahead of his party in public approval, criticism of his leadership growing more quickly; 32 percent disapprove, an 11-point jump in the past three months. Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, obtains the approval of 53 percent of British Columbians, unchanged from last quarter. Though he continues to trail Dosanjh in the public's evaluation of the job he's doing as Opposition leader, Campbell has closed the gap on Dosanjh when it comes to who the public feels would make the best Premier; 40 percent choose Dosanjh, 38 percent pick Campbell, up 4 points since March. "While Premier Dosanjh continues to get positive reviews from British Columbians, people in this province are certainly warming up to Mr. Campbell as an election nears", observes Angus Reid spokesperson Daniel Savas.

These are the findings of an Angus Reid poll conducted between June 8th and 13th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 600 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to the 1996 Census data.

Support For BC Liberals Surges 7 Points To 57%; NDP Support Down 8 Points to 16%; BC Reform Steady at 15%

Currently, 57 percent of BC's decided voters say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals outdistance both the NDP (16%) and the BC Reform party (15%) by a margin of 31-points over the combined support for these two parties. Support for the PDA (5%), BC Green (6%),and other (1%) parties account for more than 1-in-10 decided BC voters.

Overall, 13% of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties, including 9% who are undecided.

Support for the provincial Liberals has jumped 7 points since our March 2000 BC Angus Reid poll (50% to 57%). Meanwhile, NDP support has fallen back 8 points during the same period (from 24% to 16%), erasing the party's rebound in popular support following their leadership change in February of this year. BC Reform's standing in public opinion has fallen a statistically insignificant 1 point since March (16% to 15%). The number of people in the province who are supporting one of the other political parties has inched up 2 points over the past three months (10% to 12%).

The number of British Columbians who are uncommitted in their voting preference has increased marginally since March (12% to 13%). Over the last quarter, we notice a dramatic drop in the number of former NDP voters prepared to vote again for the party. Currently, 40 percent of those who voted NDP in 1996 say they would vote for the party in a provincial election; this is down a dramatic 21 points since March when fully 61 percent said they were prepared to vote NDP again.

Meanwhile, 29 percent of 1996 New Democrats would now vote for the provincial Liberal party, up 12 points from March; 7 percent are with the BC Reform party (-1), 8 percent are with the BC Green party (+3), and 14 percent remain uncommitted (+3).

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

The BC Liberals obtain strong support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the suburban Lower Mainland (67%). The party is weakest on Vancouver Island (46%), but is still well ahead of the NDP there (17%). BC Liberal support is also more solid among: men (61% vs. 53% women), and upper income (64% vs. 51% low income), and non-union (62% vs. 49% union) households.
To contrast, NDP support is quite low in all regions relative to the Liberals. The party enjoys stronger support in Vancouver/Burnaby (22%) and on Vancouver Island (17%), but support is down in both these areas (11 and 9 points, respectively). For the NDP, support is stronger among: women (21% vs. 10% men), university graduates (20% vs. 8% high school grads), and public sector union households (29% vs. 16% private sector).
For BC Reform, strongest support surfaces among people living in areas outside Vancouver/Burnaby; in these areas, 1-in-7 people would vote for the party, compared to only 10 percent in Vancouver's urban core.

BC Public Sours on Dosanjh-led NDP; 50% Say They Would Never Vote for the Party

The impact of the NDP's change in leadership continues to bring both good news and bad news for the party. The good news is that 41 percent of the BC population say they are more likely to support the NDP in a provincial election with Dosanjh as leader. A third (30%) say they are less likely to do so, and 9 percent say they would never vote for the party anyway. Seventeen percent state it makes no difference to them.

The bad news for the NDP is that the number of British Columbians more favourably disposed towards the party with Dosanjh as leader has dropped 4 points over the past three months. And, while New Democrats still support their party, fewer of them are now as inclined to do so under Dosanjh than was the case in March; 76 percent of current supporters say they are more likely to vote NDP with its new leader, compared to 86 percent in our Spring 2000 poll. Among those who voted for the party in 1996, 62 percent are more likely to do so again with Dosanjh as leader, but this is down 16 points from March (78%).

Further bad news for the NDP is that, despite its new leader, half the BC population continues to be very resistant to voting for the party. Fifty percent say they could never vote NDP, virtually the same number as in March of this year (49%). Meanwhile, only 10 percent would never vote Liberal (+1 point), and 18 percent are resistant to BC Reform (-2). Among 1996 New Democrats, 16 percent say they would never vote for the party they supported in the last election; this is double the number who expressed doubts about the NDP in our Spring poll.

Dosanjh's Approval Rating Tops all Leaders (64%), But Criticism Growing; 53% of BC Public Approves of Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell

After three-and-a-half months in office, NDP Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh, continues to lead all other provincial party leaders in public approval ratings. With 64 percent of British Columbians approving of his performance as Premier, Dosanjh is ahead of BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, by 11 points (53%), and 33 points ahead of BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm (31%).

Dosanjh's approval rating has improved 5 points since our Spring BC Angus Reid poll (59% to 64%), though criticism of his performance is rising more quickly. Currently 32 percent of British Columbians disapprove of the job Dosanjh is doing as Premier; this has increased a full 11 points since March. The number of people who are still undecided about Dosanjh has dropped to only 4 percent, from 20 percent in the spring. This suggests that increased criticism of Dosanjh has emerged from those people who had no real solid view of the NDP leader 3 months ago. Gordon Campbell's approval rating remains unchanged from last quarter. Currently, 53 percent of British Columbians approve of the job he is doing as Opposition leader. Forty-one percent of people disapprove of his performance, this has dipped 2 points since March (43%).

The BC public's evaluation of BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm is less positive this quarter. With 31 percent approving of his performance, Vander Zalm's approval rating has dropped 4 points over the past three months. Meanwhile, 55 percent disapprove of the job he is doing, the same number as in March of this year.

Campbell (38%) Closes Gap on Dosanjh (40%) as Who Would Make Best Premier

British Columbians have an improved view of Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, when it comes to who they feel would make the best Premier of the province. Currently, 38 percent of those surveyed pick Campbell as the person they'd see in the Premier's chair; this is up a statistically significant 4 points since March of this year (34%).

NDP leader Ujjal Dosanjh holds a slim lead over. Forty percent of British Columbians believe the NDP leader would make the best Premier of BC. This remains unchanged from three months ago.

Far fewer people would pick Bill Vander Zalm (14%) to return to a position he held during the late mid- to late-1980s when he led a Socred government.

Leader evaluations among regional and socio-demographic groupings reveal the following:

BC Opposition leader, Gordon Campbell, enjoys solid approval ratings across all regions of the province, and from all population segments, with higher numbers among the following groups: suburban Vancouver residents (59%), men (57%), higher household incomes (58%), non-union households (58%). Three-quarters of current Liberals give Campbell the thumbs up, 25 percent disapprove.
Premier Dosanjh's performance is rated more strongly among Vancouver Island (72% approve) and Vancouver/Burnaby (69%) residents, women (68%), and public sector union households (78%). Ninety-two percent of current NDP supporters like what Dosanjh is doing as Premier.
Bill Vander Zalm is most positively evaluated by people living in suburban Vancouver (37%) and in areas outside the southeastern corner of BC (38%), by middle-aged British Columbians (64%), and people in non-union households (35%).

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