BC Political Scene

BC PUBLIC EXPRESSES STRONG DISSATISFACTION WITH GLEN CLARK

BC LIBERALS REACH NEW HIGH IN POPULAR SUPPORT (58%), MAKING SIGNIFICANT GAINS AT EXPENSE OF NDP AND BC REFORM

NDP SUPPORT SLIPS FURTHER, REACHING NEW LOW IN POLLS (16%); BC REFORM NOW AT 14%

BC PUBLIC EXPRESSES STRONG DISSATISFACTION WITH GLEN CLARK; 79% DISAPPROVES OF THE JOB HE IS DOING AS PREMIER OF BC, ALMOST 6-IN-10 STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

The BC Angus Reid poll was conducted between June 2nd and 8th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbians. The findings were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age/gender composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1996 Census data. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within + 4.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled.

BC POLITICAL SCENE

This quarter's BC Angus Reid poll finds provincial Liberals making significant gains in popular support, reinforcing the party's already solid frontrunner position on BC's political stage. In particular, the Liberal party is attracting a growing number of people who are moving away from the NDP and BC Reform, indicating further that it is the party of choice for most British Columbians at this time. Meanwhile, the BC public continues to sour on the New Democratic party; results suggest that support is still leaking from the NDP core vote, and that the party may not have bottomed out yet in the polls. Further, BC Reform has lost ground this quarter, showing it is becoming a less important player on BC's political stage as an alternative to the NDP or the Liberals.

British Columbians continue to express strong dissatisfaction with the job Glen Clark is currently doing as Premier of BC. His approval ratings have experienced another drop, with close to 8-in-10 of those polled now saying they "disapprove" of his performance, and almost 6-in-10 expressing strong disapproval. Significantly, Clark continues to lose favour with the people who voted him and his government into office in 1996.

Provincial Party Support

  • Currently, a solid majority of BC's decided voters - fully 58 percent - say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. This is a new high for the party, and further solidifies the Liberals' position as the frontrunning party on BC's political stage. In fact, they are now a full 28 percentage points higher than the combined NDP (16%) and BC Reform (14%) support. PDA (3%) and BC Green party (6%) supporters form a third more marginal block of voters in the province, while 2 percent say they would vote for other parties. (TABLE 1)
  • 18 percent of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties. Of these, 9 percent say they are undecided.
  • Support for the Liberals has jumped a significant 6 percentage points since last quarter, moving from 52 percent in March of this year to the current 58 percent level; in the past 6 months their popular support has increased by 12 percentage points. Meanwhile, NDP support has dropped a marginal 2 percentage points since March, from 18 to 16 percent. BC Reform's standing in public opinion has also fallen, moving down a statistically significant 4 points from our Spring 1999 poll (18% to 14%).
  • The number of people unable or unwilling to commit themselves to one of the provincial parties has inched downwards by 1 percentage point over the past three months (19% to 18%).
  • The BC Liberals obtain majority support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the suburban Lower Mainland (66%). The party's weakest strength is on Vancouver Island (50%). The Liberals have improved their position in all regions over the past 3 months.
  • To contrast, NDP support is quite low in all regions, with less than 1-in-5 British Columbians across the province saying they would vote for the governing New Democrats.
  • As for BC Reform, its strongest support surfaces among British Columbians who live in areas outside of the southwestern corner of the province (20%), but party support has dropped even in this traditional stronghold.

Evaluation of Provincial Party Leaders

  • Currently, less than 1-in-5 British Columbians (19%) say they approve of the job Glen Clark is doing as Premier of the province. This is down marginally from 21 percent last quarter. To contrast, a large majority of people in the province - 79 percent - disapprove of his performance; this is a slight 2 point increase since March of this year. Importantly, a majority (58%) now say they "strongly disapprove" of his performance, hinting at the high level of dissatisfaction with Clark as Premier. The 79 percent disapproval rating is the highest given Clark since his election as Premier almost 3 years ago. (TABLE 2)
  • Meanwhile, 50 percent of British Columbians approve of Gordon Campbell's performance as Opposition Leader, up a marginal 1 percentage point since June. By comparison, 44 percent of people in the province currently disapprove of the job Campbell is doing in his position, the same number as in our Spring 1999 poll.
  • Bill Vander Zalm's approval rating is at 27 percent, down 4 percentage points from the 31 percent he obtained three months ago. Fifty-two percent of British Columbians disapprove of the job he is doing as BC Reform leader, up 3 points since March of this year.
  • British Columbians from all walks of life and living in different regions of the province express strong dissatisfaction with Premier Clark's performance. Politically, Premier Clark appears to be losing ground with the people who helped put him in office in the 1996 provincial election; currently only 33 percent of those who voted for an NDP government in 1996 now say they approve of the job Clark is doing as Premier; this is down 8 points from our Spring 1999 poll. To contrast, a full 66 percent of former New Democrats disapprove of the job he is doing, which is up a full 9 points since March.
  • For BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, the picture continues to be much more favourable; he obtains solid approval ratings across all regions of the province, and among people from all socio-demographic groups. Politically, Campbell enjoys approval ratings from 73 percent of people who voted Liberal in the last provincial election; 25 percent disapprove. This remains unchanged from last quarter.
  • BC Reform party leader, Bill Vander Zalm, is still in a deficit situation across the province and all population subgroups as far as approval ratings go. He does, however, enjoy the support of 57 percent of 1996 BC Reform voters.
For further information contact:
Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs (Vancouver)
ANGUS REID GROUP, INC.

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