BC Political Scene

Vancouver, BC - September 21st, 2001 - In its first BC Reid Express poll on BC's political scene since the BC Liberals won a landslide victory in the May 2001 election, Ipsos-Reid finds the new BC Liberal government living a honeymoon period with the BC electorate. Indeed, Gordon Campbell's Liberals have increased their support among British Columbians over the past three months (58% to 62%), and the BC population gives Gordon Campbell top marks for the job he's doing as Premier (70% approval). By way of contrast, the NDP opposition has lost ground with the public, falling to pre-election lows (22% to 15%), while the BC Green party has maintained its support (12% to 14%). NDP leader, Joy McPhail, trails Campbell in approval ratings; British Columbians are somewhat divided in their views of her performance in the job (41% approve, 42% disapprove). "This first sounding of BC public opinion since the provincial election tells us that British Columbians seem quite happy with what Mr. Campbell's government has done and is doing since it took power in May, " observes Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President with Ipsos-Reid in Vancouver. "The fact that the Premier is personally ahead of his party is a positive sign for Mr. Campbell, hinting the public sees him as taking charge of the government, and moving it in directions which please them. For the NDP, it's clear British Columbians are not yet ready to embrace a party they soundly rejected just 3 months ago."

BC LIBERALS IMPROVE STANDING AMONG BC PUBLIC SINCE ELECTION VICTORY (62% - UP 4 POINTS); NDP OPPOSITION FALLS BACK (15% - DOWN 7 POINTS)

Currently, 62% of BC's decided and leaning voters say they would be most likely to support the Liberals in a provincial election. The Liberals hold a commanding lead over the opposition NDP (15%), and the BC Green party (14%). Far fewer people support other parties - BC Unity (3%), and Other (5%). Overall, 8% of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties, including 4% who are undecided.

Support for the provincial Liberals has moved up a statistically significant 4 percentage points since the May 16th, 2001 election, when it obtained 58% of popular support. Meanwhile, NDP support has dropped a full 7 points during the same period (from 22% to 15%). The BC Green party's standing among decided voters has remained virtually unchanged, inching up a statistically insignificant 2 points since May (12% to 14%). Support for BC Unity and Other parties has not moved over the past 3 months (3%, and 5% respectively).

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals enjoy strong support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the suburban Lower Mainland communities (68%) and in the Interior/North (64%). The party is weaker on Vancouver Island (51%), but still sits well ahead of the NDP (21%), and Green (19%) parties.
• BC Liberal support is also more solid among: men (71% vs. 54% women), upper income households (74% vs. 48% low income), and non-union households (66% vs. 56% union). The gender gap present in this poll is one of the highest we've seen in recent polls. Indeed, prior to the May election this gap for the Liberals had all but disappeared.
• To contrast, NDP support is much lower in all regions relative to the Liberals. And, party support is quite even across the province, though Vancouver Island residents are slightly more supportive (21%). NDP support is higher among: women (23% vs. 8% men), individuals living in public sector union households (26% vs. 12% non-union), university graduates (20% vs. 14% high school grads), and middle income households (20% vs. 11% upper income).
• For the BC Green party, support is consistent across all regions, but the party enjoys higher support among: younger British Columbians (19% vs. 10% 55+), and lower income households (26% vs. 7% upper income).

LIBERALS WINNING OVER NDP (14%), GREEN (17%) VOTERS, AND ATTRACTING MANY WHO DID NOT VOTE (47%)

Over the last 3 months, some British Columbians have shifted their support from how they voted on election day. And, it's the BC Liberals who appear to be benefiting the most.

For the BC Liberals, the slippage in support since their election victory has been minimal, and not moving in any one direction. In fact, the party is picking up support from other parties and non-voters, across the board. Fully 93% of British Columbians who voted Liberal in May now say they would support the party. Among the 7% who have moved elsewhere, most now sit with Other parties (3%).

To contrast, currently, 66 percent of those who voted NDP in May say they would support the party in a provincial election. However, 14% would now vote Liberal, and 8% have moved to the BC Green party.

For the BC Green party, 77% of its election supporters are still under the Green banner, but 17% have shifted to the Liberals.

Among those who supported Other parties in the May 2001 election, only 21% remain with them. Fully 43% are now in the Liberal camp, 21% are with Unity BC, and 7% have moved to the BC Green party.

Among those who did not vote in May, most (47%) are now supporting the BC Liberal party. By comparison, 17% would support the BC Green party, 13% are with the NDP, and only 2% have moved to Unity BC. Fully 15% are uncommitted in their party preference.

CAMPBELL OBTAINS HIGH APPROVAL RATINGS (70%) FOR PERFORMANCE AS PREMIER; PUBLIC GIVE MCPHAIL LESS FAVOURABLE RATINGS AS NDP LEADER (41%)

Premier Gordon Campbell enjoys a very high approval rating among the BC public after three months on the job. Fully 70% of British Columbians say they approve of his performance, with 27% strongly approving. These numbers are the highest approval ratings Campbell has obtained since taking over as Liberal party leader in the early 1990s. In all, 27% of the BC public disapproves of Campbell's performance.

For NDP leader, Joy McPhail, 41% of the BC population approves of the job she's been doing, well back of Campbell. And, just as many (42%) say they disapprove of her performance.

Leader approval ratings for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• Gordon Campbell obtains solid approval ratings in all major regions in the province, and among all population groups. He leads McPhail in all areas of the province, and among all population segments.
• Campbell's performance ratings are stronger among men (77% vs. 64% women), and individuals in non-union (74% vs. 63% union), and upper income (79% vs. 63% middle, and lower income) households.
• Joy McPhail's performance numbers are strongest on Vancouver Island (50% vs. 45% in the Lower Mainland, and 27% in the Interior/North). She also receives greater support among public sector union households (48% vs. 38% non-union), and university graduates (52% vs. 32% high school grads).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610