BC Political Scene December 2000

Campbell's Disapproval Rating (40%) At 4-Year Low, Same As Dosanjh

(Vancouver, BC) - The most recent Ipsos-Reid poll on BC politics shows the provincial Liberals maintaining a commanding lead over all rivals as the province heads into the final months of the NDP's second term in office. With an election expected by mid-2001 at the latest, the polls show a majority of decided voters (51%) would vote for the BC Liberal party in a provincial election. Meanwhile, very little has changed for the NDP over the past year; at 17 percent in the polls, it continues to struggle to move the numbers above 20 percent. "The party has failed to generate any sustained momentum or enthusiasm among British Columbians over the past nine months despite having changed leaders, revamped its policy basket, and cleaned up the province's finances. This will have to change soon if the NDP hopes to go into an election with any optimism at all," comments Daniel Savas, Senior Vice President in Ipsos-Reid's Vancouver office.

On the leadership front, the NDP can still claim to have the most popular leader in Premier Ujjal Dosanjh. However, with his approval rating falling for a second straight quarter, the shine on Dosanjh's veneer seems to be fading somewhat. This has had the effect of raising the profile of Opposition Gordon Campbell, a leader the BC public is becoming more comfortable with. "It seems clear the NDP can no longer rest solely on the laurels of their popular leader," observes Mr. Savas. "While Dosanjh may have stalled the party's descent a few months ago through his personal popularity, it seems his efforts cannot wipe out the compounded effect of two consecutive NDP mandates, and the record of his immediate predecessor. This is making Gordon Campbell look that much better in the eyes of most British Columbians."

Liberals (51%) Continue To Lead All Parties; NDP (17%), BC Reform (18%) Trail Well Back

Currently, 51 percent of BC's decided voters say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to outdistance both the NDP (17%) and the BC Reform party (18%). Support for the BC Green (9%) and other (4%) parties account for just over 1-in-10 decided BC voters. Overall, 11 percent of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties, including 9 percent who are undecided.

Support for the provincial Liberals and NDP over the past three months has not changed in any statistically significant fashion. The Liberals have moved up 3 points since September (48% to 51%). Meanwhile, NDP support has inched 2 points downwards during the same period (from 19% to 17%). BC Reform's standing in public opinion has, however, dropped back a statistically significant 4 points since September (22% to 18%). The number of people in the province who are supporting the BC Green party is at 9 percent (+1). The number of British Columbians who are uncommitted in their voting preference has dropped 6 points since September (17% to 11%).

Over the last quarter, we notice a significant drop in the number of former NDP voters prepared to vote again for the party. Currently, 38 percent of those who voted NDP in 1996 say they would vote for the party in a provincial election; this is down 9 points since September when 47 percent said they were prepared to vote NDP.

Meanwhile, 25 percent of 1996 New Democrats would now vote for the provincial Liberal party, similar to our September poll (23%); 13 percent are with the BC Green party (up 7 points), 4 percent are with the BC Reform party (-6), and 18 percent remain uncommitted (+5).

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals obtain strong support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the Lower Mainland (57%). The party is weakest in the Interior (41%), but still holds a strong lead over the BC Reform party there (29%).
• BC Liberal support is also more solid among men (56% vs. 47% women), older British Columbians (55% for 55+ vs. 45% for 18-34), upper income households (59% vs. 39% low income), and non-union households (55% vs. 43% union).
• To contrast, NDP support is much lower in all regions relative to the Liberals. The party enjoys stronger support in Vancouver/Burnaby (23%) and on Vancouver Island (21%). NDP support is fairly consistent across all population groups, with no statistically significant variations based on age, gender, or income.
• For BC Reform, strongest support surfaces among people living in the Interior (29%) compared to about 1-in-10 people in the Lower Mainland.

Dosanjh's Approval Rating Drops To 53%; Campbell (51%) Closes Gap On NDP Leader; Campbell's Disapproval Rating (40%) At Four Year Low, Same As Dosanjh

NDP Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh, and Opposition Leader, Gordon Campbell, are pretty much tied in their respective public approval ratings. With 53 percent of British Columbians approving of his performance as Premier, Dosanjh is only slightly ahead of BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, who receives positive reviews from 51 percent of the public. BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm (30%) is well back of both Dosanjh and Campbell.

Dosanjh's approval rating has dropped a statistically significant 6 points since our September Ipsos-Reid poll (59% to 53%%). This is the second consecutive quarter his approval numbers have experienced a downward trend. Meanwhile, the number of British Columbians who disapprove of the job he is doing as Premier is up marginally in the past three months (37% to 40%), but they've essentially doubled since he became Premier in the Spring of 2000 (21% in March to 40% currently).

Gordon Campbell's approval rating remains virtually unchanged from last quarter (50% to 51%). Meanwhile, 40 percent of people currently disapprove of his performance, which is a statistically significant 5-point drop over the past three months. This is the lowest disapproval rating for Campbell in four years.

The BC public's evaluation of BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm has worsened slightly since last quarter (30% from 33% in September). Meanwhile, 55 percent disapprove of the job he is doing, up 1 point from September.

This BC Ipsos-Reid poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between December 6th and 10th, 2000 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610