BC Political Scene Fall 1999

BC PUBLIC GIVES PREMIER MILLER AN INITIAL SIGN OF APPROVAL (36%), BUT MANY ADOPT "WAIT AND SEE" POSITION (31%) GORDON CAMPBELL RECEIVES TOP APPROVAL RATING (49%) OF ALL PARTY

LEADERS, BUT MANY DISAPPROVE (45%) GORDON CAMPBELL RECEIVES TOP APPROVAL RATING (49%) OF ALL PARTY LEADERS, BUT MANY DISAPPROVE (45%)

This BC Angus Reid Group poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between Sept 1st and Sept 10th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

This quarter's BC Angus Reid poll finds provincial Liberals holding onto their strong lead ahead of all other provincial political parties. The governing New Democrats remain mired in third place marginally behind BC Reform, suggesting they have benefited very little from the high profile resignation of now former Premier Glen Clark. However, in the aftermath of the Clark resignation, the sands appear to be shifting in the base of NDP support in the province, with some first signs of a return to the fold of disaffected New Democrats.

On the leadership front, British Columbians express some degree of satisfaction with what newly-minted Premier, Dan Miller, has done since he took over from Glen Clark, though almost as many disapprove of his actions. Importantly, many people in the province have formed no solid opinion about Miller, indicating they are reserving judgement until he's had more time in office. BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, enjoys much higher approval ratings than all other party leaders, though he continues to stir ambivalent sentiments among the BC population with almost as many people approving his performance as disapproving.

BC LIBERALS HOLD STRONG LEAD AMONG DECIDED VOTERS (54%), BUT SUPPORT HAS SLIPPED 4 POINTS SINCE JUNE

Currently, a solid majority of BC's decided voters - fully 57% - say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to outdistance both the NDP (15%) and the BC Reform party (16%) by a wide margin, a commanding 26-point gap over the combined support for these two parties. The PDA (2%) and BC Green (7%) parties garner just under a tenth of the popular vote, while 2% say they would vote for "other" parties.

Overall, 21% of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties. Of these, 9% say they are undecided.

Support for the Liberals has remained virtually the same over the summer months, dropping a statistically insignificant 1 percentage point since last quarter's Angus Reid poll. Meanwhile, NDP support has slipped marginally (1 percentage point) since June, from 16 to 15 percent. BC Reform's standing in public opinion has also stayed about the same, moving from 14% to 16% this quarter. The number of people unable or unwilling to commit themselves to one of the provincial parties has decreased 2 points since June of this year.

There are some first signs of movements within the NDP core, though the party is still failing to attract a significant number of its former supporters. Among those who voted NDP in the 1996 provincial election, only 37% are currently in the NDP camp; this is up, however, from the 28% immediately following Glen Clark's resignation. In all, 18% of 1996 New Democrats say they would vote Liberal (down from 28% a few weeks ago), and 12% are currently supporting BC Reform (no change); 21% express no preference at this time (down 5 points). Importantly, these shifts within the NDP are having no negative impact on support within the BC Liberal party; fully 89% of 1996 Liberals say they would vote for the party in a provincial election (up 6 points from 2 weeks ago).

Results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals obtain majority support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the suburban Lower Mainland (61%). The party is weakest in the Rest of BC (50%) outside the southeastern corner of the province. Since June, the Liberals have lost ground in suburban Lower Mainland communities (66% to 61%), and in the Rest of BC (57% to 50%), largely, it appears, to BC Reform. Liberal support is up, however, in Vancouver/Burnaby (56% to 60%) and on Vancouver Island (50% to 56%). Among various population groups, Liberal support is stronger with men (60%) and higher income earners (67%).
• To contrast, NDP support is quite low in all regions, with less than 1-in-5 British Columbians in most regions across the province saying they would vote for the governing New Democrats. Support is down in all regions except on Vancouver Island where the NDP has picked up marginally (19% to 21%). There are no significant variations in NDP support among various population groups.
• As for BC Reform, its strongest support surfaces among British Columbians who live in areas outside of the southwestern corner of the province (24%). Party support is up in most areas of the province for BC Reform: Rest of BC (20% to 24%), Vancouver Island (11% to 15%), Rest of Lower Mainland (13% to 18%). Only in Vancouver/Burnaby has the party lost support (13% to 8%). There are no significant variations in BC Reform support among various population groups.

CAMPBELL OBTAINS TOP APPROVAL RATING OF ALL LEADERS (49%), BUT ALMOST AS MANY DISAPPROVE OF HIS PERFORMANCE (45%)

BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, continues to outpace his competitors in leader approval ratings. With 49% of British Columbians saying they approve of the job he is doing as provincial Opposition leader, Campbell is some 13 points ahead of new NDP Premier, Dan Miller (36%), and 15 points ahead of acting BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm (32%).

Campbell's approval rating remains virtually unchanged since June of this year (50%), while Vander Zalm has improved his standing over the past three months, moving up 5 points from our summer sounding. Meanwhile, Dan Miller is well ahead of his predecessor's June rating (+18 - Glen Clark left office at 19% approval). Importantly, a full 31% of British Columbians are unsure of their views of Miller's performance as Premier.

Despite Campbell's solid approval rating, a full 45% of British Columbians disapprove of the job he is doing as the Official Opposition leader. To contrast, 55% of the BC public disapproves of Bill Vander Zalm in his role as acting leader of the BC Reform party, up 3 points since June. Meanwhile, 33% of people surveyed say they disapprove of the job Dan Miller is doing as Premier; this is significantly lower than the 79% who were dissatisfied with Glen Clark's performance in our June poll.

Leader evaluations among regional and socio-demographic groupings reveal the following:

• BC Opposition leader, Gordon Campbell, enjoys solid approval ratings across all regions of the province, and from all population segments, with very little variation.
• Premier Miller's performance obtains its most favourable evaluations from Vancouver Island (45%) and Vancouver/Burnaby residents (38%), while only 32% of people living in areas outside the southeastern corner of the province give Miller the thumbs up for doing a good job. Miller also obtains his most positive ratings from young people (46%) and union households (45%).
• Bill Vander Zalm is most positively evaluated in areas outside of the southeastern corner of BC (39% approval) and in suburban Vancouver (37%). He also obtains greater approval ratings among men (37%).

For further information contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 893-1610

The Angus Reid Group is Canada's largest and most well-known Canadian research company. Established in 1979 by Dr. Angus Reid, the company serves 1200 clients via its six offices in Canada, four offices in the United States and its European office in London, England. With a complement of 250 full time qualitative and quantitative researchers, the company has annual revenues of $65 million and is growing at an average rate of 30 percent per year. The employee-owned company also operates its own field service entity, Direct Reid, utilizing 450 CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) stations for North American calling and a 50,000 household consumer panel in Canada.