BC Political Scene June 2002

Vancouver, BC - A new Ipsos-Reid poll taken at the beginning of June 2002 finds the provincial Liberals continuing to hold a solid frontrunner position with the BC electorate. Currently, 48 percent of decided voters are behind the BC Liberals, up 3 points from last month's Ipsos-Reid One-Year Anniversary poll conducted for the Vancouver Sun and Global TV. On the leadership front, Gordon Campbell's personal approval rating of 41% has fallen behind that of his party as a whole. For the opposition New Democrats, there is no real sign that party fortunes are about to break new ground. Still, this quarter's poll results provide some continued good news for Joy MacPhail; her personal approval rating remains strong at 47%, 6 points ahead of Premier Campbell.

"The BC Liberals continue to exhibit solid strength in support across British Columbia" observes Daniel Savas, Senior Vice President in Ipsos-Reid's Vancouver office. "Despite some critical reviews of the Liberals first year in office that we saw last month, people in the province are still standing firm behind the government. They're either expecting or hoping the Liberals can "deliver the goods" over the long term. If the government fails to do so, we can expect public opinion to get a lot grumpier towards the Liberals."

These are the findings of a BC Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between June 4th and 11th, 2002 among a representative cross-section of 800 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1996 Census data. With a provincial sample of 800, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within 1773.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

BC Liberals (48%) Maintain Lead Over NDP (25%), Greens (18%)

Currently, 48% of BC's decided and leaning voters say they would be most likely to support the Liberals in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to hold a commanding lead over the opposition NDP (25%) and the BC Green party (18%). Fewer people support other parties - BC Unity (5%), and Other (5%). Overall, 15% of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties, including 8% who are undecided, and 6% say they would not vote for any of the parties.

Support for the BC Liberals has increased 3 percentage points in the past month (45% to 48%), returning to the level the party obtained in our March quarterly poll. NDP support has, from a statistical perspective, remained quite constant over the past month, dipping slightly from 27% in May to 25% this month, and down 3 points from March. Meanwhile, support for BC Unity is also unchanged (5% this month, 4% in May, 3% in March). The BC Green party's standing has changed only marginally, from 20% in May to 18% this month, a statistically insignificant difference.

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals continue to have strong support across all regions of the province. However, there are some variations among specific population groups. For example, the significant gender gap in Liberal support noted in previous findings is still there, with far more men than women backing the party (53% vs. 43%). However, the gap is shrinking (16 points in March, 14 points in May, 10 points in June). The Liberals are also more strongly supported among individuals living in upper income households (58% vs. 33% lower income).
• The NDP enjoys greatest support among Vancouver Island residents (34%). The party also has stronger support among older residents (29%), university graduates (28%) and, significantly, among people living in lower income households (35% vs. 20% upper income).
• The Green party obtains similar levels of support across all regions and socio-demographic groups.

MacPhail (47%) Ahead of Campbell (41%) in Approval Ratings

Currently, 41% of the BC population approves of the job Gordon Campbell is doing as Premier of the province. This is a statistically significant 4 percentage point decline since March when 45% approved of his performance.

Meanwhile, 56% now disapprove of the job Campbell is doing as Premier, an increase of just 3 percentage points from an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted in March (53%).

The BC public's evaluation of NDP leader Joy MacPhail has not shifted in any significant fashion over the past 3 months. Currently, 47% of British Columbians approve of MacPhail's performance as Opposition Leader, down 2 points since March. Overall, 39% disapprove of the job she is doing, virtually unchanged since March (38%).

Assessments of the two party leaders are quite consistent across all regions of the province, and among various population segments. There are, nonetheless some groups that stand out:

• Regionally, Gordon Campbell's approval ratings are consistent with the overall provincial rating, though he does better among Lower Mainland residents (48% approval) than elsewhere in the province (33% on Vancouver Island, 37% in the Interior/North).
• Among population segments: men are more likely than women to approve of Campbell (49% vs. 34%), and British Columbians with higher annual household incomes (48%) are significantly more likely to approve of Campbell's performance than those with lower annual household incomes (31%).
• NDP leader Joy MacPhail enjoys more positive reviews from older British Columbians (58%), and from individuals living in lower income households (53%).
• Both party leaders continue to enjoy strong support among those who voted for their parties in the May 2001 election. Currently, 71% of 2001 Liberals approve of Gordon Campbell, the same as in March of this year. By comparison, 83% of those who voted NDP in the last election approve of Joy MacPhail , which is the same number as 3 months ago.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 257-3200