BC Political Scene March 2000

BC Liberals comfortably ahead (50%), but NDP support jumps to 24% from 17% in December

Ujjal Dosanjh obtains top approval rating (59%), Campbell improves his standing (53%)

Vancouver, BC -- This quarter's BC Angus Reid poll sees some significant movements on the provincial political scene, but no major change in the positions of the parties. Fresh off their recent leadership convention, which put Ujjal Dosanjh in the Premier's chair, the governing New Democrats have experienced a jump in popularity, and many in the province seem prepared to vote for the NDP now that they've changed leaders. As a result, the NDP has closed the gap on the frontrunning Opposition Liberals whose popularity has dropped with the NDP surge. BC Reform, meanwhile, has lost ground to both the Liberals and the NDP. Despite these changes, however, the provincial Liberals remain well out in front of all parties, and half the BC population still say they could never vote for the NDP.

On the leadership front, for the first time in well over three years British Columbians give more positive than negative ratings to their Premier. In the aftermath of his leadership victory, and his first acts as Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh enjoys top approval ratings from the BC population, though many are still reserving judgement. Liberal leader Gordon Campbell continues to improve his standing in the public for his performance as Opposition leader. Meanwhile, BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm, now languishes a distant third in the party leader ratings.

NDP Support Jumps 7 Points, But BC Liberals Still Hold Substantial Lead (50% Vs. 24%

Currently, 50 percent of BC's decided voters say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to outdistance both the NDP (24%) and the BC Reform party (16%) by a margin of 10 points over the combined support for these two parties. Support for the PDA (3%), BC Green (6%),and other (1%) parties account for 1-in-10 decided BC voters. Overall, 12 percent of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties. Of these, 6 percent say they are undecided.

Support for the provincial Liberals has dropped 5 points since our December 1999 BC Angus Reid poll. Meanwhile, NDP support has jumped 7 points during the same period (from 17% to 24%), the first real positive movement for the party since the 1996 election. BC Reform's standing in public opinion has fallen 2 points, moving from 18 to 16 percent this quarter. The number of people in the province who are supporting one of the other political parties has stayed the same over the past three months (10%). The number of British Columbians who are uncommitted in their voting preference has dropped 6 points since December (18% to 12%).

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals obtain strong support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the Vancouver/Burnaby and the suburban Lower Mainland (53%). The party is weakest on Vancouver Island (47%), but is still well ahead of the NDP there (26%).
• To contrast, NDP support is quite low in all regions relative to the Liberals. The party enjoys much stronger support in Vancouver Burnaby (32%, up 11 points) and on Vancouver Island (26%) than elsewhere in the province where only 18 percent of people are in the NDP camp.
• For BC Reform, the party is strongest in areas outside Vancouver/Burnaby (20%), but receives only 4 percent support in this urban core.
• BC Liberal support is more solid among: men (56% vs. 44% women), and upper income households (59% vs. 39% low income).
• For the NDP, support is more solid among: women (30% vs. 18% men), and university graduates (29% vs. 16% high school grads).

To view the complete media release please download the PDF file.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 893-1610 (office)
(604) 724-3124 (cell)