BC Political Scene September 2000

Dosanjh's Approval Rating Drops 5 Points, But He Continues To Lead Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell (59% Vs. 50%)

Liberal Support Drops A Significant 9 Points, Losing Ground To BC Reform and The NDP

Currently, 48 percent of BC's decided voters say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to outdistance both the NDP (19%) and the BC Reform party (22%). Support for the BC Green (8%),and other (3%) parties account for more about 1-in-10 decided BC voters. Overall, 17% of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties, including 9% who are undecided.

Support for the provincial Liberals has dropped 9 points since our June 2000 BC Angus Reid poll (57% to 48%). Meanwhile, NDP support has inched up 3 points during the same period (from 16% to 19%). BC Reform's standing in public opinion has jumped a statistically significant 7 points since June (15% to 22%). The gap between the Liberals and these two parties has dropped dramatically since June, from 26 to 7 points in just three months. The number of people in the province who are supporting the BC Green party has increased slightly from 6 to 8 percent. The number of British Columbians who are uncommitted in their voting preference has increased 4 points since June (13% to 17%).

"The increased strength of BC Reform is puzzling in that the party has been quite inactive for the past year or so", says Angus Reid Senior Vice-President, Daniel Savas. "What may be happening is that, similar to the period just prior to the 1996 provincial election, many British Columbians are likely parking their votes with BC Reform for the time being, waiting to move elsewhere once an election is called. Still, a 9-point shift in support away from the Liberals is significant. While the Liberals likely topped out last quarter at 57%, this month's poll may indicate softer support than what the numbers show. We'll have to watch to see if the downward trend continues; if it does, the Liberals may be in more trouble than we currently think."

Meanwhile, there has been a jump in the number of former NDP voters prepared to vote again for the party. Currently, 47 percent of those who voted NDP in 1996 say they would vote for the party in a provincial election; this is up a statistically significant 7 points since June when fully 40 percent said they were prepared to vote NDP. "This suggests the party is being more successful in attracting a critical segment of the voting public - its former supporters", comments Mr. Savas. "Without these people returning to the fold, it's difficult to be even mildly optimistic about NDP fortunes. As it stands, the party will still have to win back more than the half of its core vote it currently has if it hopes to be a contender in the next election." Twenty-three percent of 1996 New Democrats would now vote for the provincial Liberal party, down 6 points from June; 10 percent are with the BC Reform party (+3), 6 percent are with the BC Green party (+2), and 13 percent remain uncommitted (+1).

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• BC Liberals obtain strong support across all regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the Lower Mainland (53%). The party is weakest in the Interior (36%), where it is in a close race with the BC Reform party (37%). Support for the Liberals has dropped in all regions, with the most significant drop occurring in Greater Vancouver (-14 points). BC Liberal support is also more solid among: men (51% vs. 44% women), older British Columbians (58% for 55+ vs. 37% for 18-34), upper income households (61% vs. 36% low income), and non-union households (58% vs. 33% union). Liberal support has dropped with all population groups.
• To contrast, NDP support is quite low in all regions relative to the Liberals. The party enjoys slightly stronger support in Vancouver/Burnaby (23%) and on Vancouver Island (23%). NDP support has remained the same in all regions, but the Island where they've increased by 6 points. NDP support is consistent across all population groups, with no consistent variations based on age, gender, or income.
• For BC Reform, strongest support surfaces among people living in the Interior (37%), compared to about 1-in-10 people in the Lower Mainland.

Ujjal Dosanjh Receives Top Approval Rating (59%), But Public Enthusiasm For NDP Leader Drops 5 Points

NDP Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh, continues to lead all other provincial party leaders in public approval ratings. With 59 percent of British Columbians approving of his performance as Premier, Dosanjh is ahead of BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, by 9 points (50%), and 26 points ahead of BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm (33%). However, Dosanjh's approval rating has dropped a statistically significant 5 points since our June BC Angus Reid poll (64% to 59%), while the number of British Columbians who disapprove of the job he is doing as Premier is up 5 points in the past three months (32% to 37%).

Gordon Campbell's approval rating has dipped an insignificant 3 points from last quarter. Currently, 50 percent of British Columbians approve of the job he is doing as Opposition leader (down from 53% in June). Meanwhile, 45 percent of people currently disapprove of his performance, which is a statistically significant 4 point jump over the past three months.

The BC public's evaluation of BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm remains unchanged from last quarter. With 33 percent approving of his performance, Vander Zalm's approval rating has inched up 2 points over the past three months. Meanwhile, 56 percent disapprove of the job he is doing, up 1 points from June of this year.

British Columbians continue to see NDP leader Ujjal Dosanjh as the party leader who would make the best Premier of BC. Currently, 41 percent of those surveyed pick Dosanjh, compared to 36 percent who single out BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell. Only 15 percent pick BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm. Dosanjh's popularity as best Premier has changed only marginally since June when 40 percent picked him as the person best suited for the Premier's chair. Public enthusiasm for Gordon Campbell has dipped 2 points over the past three months (38% to 36% currently).

Budget Surplus Has Limited Impact On Public Perceptions of NDP, Dosanjh, and NDP Fiscal Management

Despite the BC Auditor General's announcement earlier this month that BC had a budgetary surplus for the fiscal year 1999-2000, a majority of British Columbians - 80 percent - say this does not make them more likely to vote for the party. Further, 70 percent say the surplus does not improve their opinion of Ujjal Dosanjh as Premier. And, 72 percent say it does not give them any more confidence in the NDP's management of BC's finances.

"While having a budget surplus is certainly good news for the province", says Daniel Savas, "the NDP is not scoring any big political points from it, at least not now. This is perhaps the best the NDP could have expected from its announcement; British Columbians seem to be saying that they're not prepared to give the party any real credit on this budget front after several years of unbalanced books and a questionable surplus just prior to the 1996 election. Still, just imagine the reaction if the books weren't balanced!"

This BC Angus Reid Group poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between Sept 5th and September 11th, 2000 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

To view the complete media release with tables, please download the PDF file.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 893-1610