Booting Senators from Liberal Caucus a Popular Move,
But Fails to Win Trudeau Any More Votes

Toronto, ON - Justin Trudeau's surprise announcement to boot Liberal-appointed Senators from the Liberal caucus appears to be a popular move, but it has failed to earn him any more votes, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CTV News.

Seven in ten (68%) Canadians `agree' (31% strongly/38% somewhat) that `Prime Minister Harper now needs to follow Justin Trudeau's lead and expel all Conservative-appointed Senators from the Conservative caucus', while just three in ten (32%) Canadians `disagree' (10% strongly/21% somewhat) that the Prime Minister should follow suit. Even among Tory supporters, half (48%) believe the Prime Minister should expel all Conservative-appointed Senators from caucus, while half (52%) disagree that he should.

Liberal Lead Slips to 4 Points (down 2 points)...

The Liberal Lead over the Tories has slipped to 4 points from 6 in late November, despite the apparent popularity of Trudeau's surprise announcement. If an election were held tomorrow, Trudeau and the Liberals would earn 33% of the vote among decided voters (down 2 points since November), while the Conservatives under Prime Minister Harper would receive 29% of the vote (unchanged). The NDP, led by Thomas Mulcair, would receive 27% of the vote (up 1 point), with Bloc support ticking up to 7% nationally (up 1 point), or 29% in Quebec (up 2 points), despite being without a permanent leader at present.

Other parties (including the Green Party led by Elizabeth May) would receive 4% of the vote (up 1 point), and 15% of Canadians remain undecided on who they would vote for.

Liberal Supporters Appear Most Motivated to Cast Ballot, as Liberal Lead Swells Among Definite Voters...

Among the 53% of Canadians who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', the Liberals get a significant boost - 38% of these Canadians would vote Liberal, compared to just 28% for the Tories, 25% for the NDP, 5% for the Bloc and 4% for some other party (including the Green Party).

These data highlight the importance of a get-out-the-vote campaign, and suggest that in a low-turnout election, the Liberals would be the primary beneficiary.

Elections Won and Lost in the Regions...

With the national results tightening to a spread of just six points from the first-place Liberals (33%) to third-place NDP (27%), the importance of leading in the most populous regions of Canada is paramount. In each of the most populous provinces of Canada there exists a tight three-way race:

• In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (35%) hold a slim lead over the Liberals (33%) who are only 4 points ahead of the NDP (29%). This very close three-way race means that the results of the next federal elections are anything but a foregone conclusion.
• In Quebec, the Liberals (31%) have a slight edge over the Bloc Quebecois (29%) and the NDP (27%) - who currently hold most of the seats in the province. The governing Tories (11%) are struggling to maintain any relevancy in the province.
• In British Columbia, the Liberals (32%), Conservatives (29%) and NDP (29%) are locked in a tight battle for votes.
• In Alberta, the Tories (46%) still have a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%) and NDP (23%), but not what it once used to be.
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (37%) and Liberals (35%) are in a tight race for first-place, with the NDP (24%) behind.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (62%) have a healthy lead over the Tories (24%) and NDP (12%).

Trudeau Chosen as Best Prime Minister (42%), Ahead of Harper (34%) and Mulcair (24%)...

When asked which leader of the major federal parties would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, the leader of the third party in the House of Commons - Justin Trudeau - has been chosen by 42% of Canadians as the person who would make the best Prime Minister, holding an 8-point lead over current Prime Minister Stephen Harper (34%). One quarter (24%) believe that NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair would make the best Prime Minster of Canada.

Trudeau's Senate Announcement Character Building, but Majority (55%) Sees it as Publicity Stunt...

The poll reveals that Justin Trudeau's gambit on the Senate has earned him some stripes (if not votes), but a majority still sees it as a publicity stunt rather than a substantive change to the way the Senate operates. Two in three (68%) `agree' (25% strongly/43% somewhat) that `Justin Trudeau's decision to expel all Liberal-appointed Senators from the Liberal caucus shows his willingness to make tough decisions on controversial issues', while just one in three (32%) `disagree' (13% strongly/19% somewhat) with this assessment.

Furthermore, an equal proportion (68%) `agrees' (30% strongly/38% somewhat) that by expelling these Senators `Justin Trudeau shows that he's more serious about reforming the Senate than Prime Minister Harper is', while one in three (32%) `disagree' (13% strongly/19% somewhat). However, it's not all positive for Trudeau - a slim majority (55%) `agrees' (20% strongly/30% somewhat) that `Justin Trudeau's decision is just a publicity stunt - this isn't a meaningful change to the Senate'. Still, nearly half (45%) `disagree' (16% strongly/29% somewhat) that it's all flash and no substance'.

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between January 31s to February 4th, 2014 on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.