Buzz Around Justin Trudeau and Liberal Leadership Contest Creates Momentum, But Liberals (26%) Still Trail NDP (30%)
and Conservatives (34%)
If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal Party would receive 26% of the vote among decided Canadians, up 8 points from June and the highest it has been since before last year's election. However, even with these gains, the Liberals would still achieve no better than third place in the popular vote.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper appears to be helming a steady ship as the federal Conservatives would receive 34% of the popular vote, down just 1 point from June. While the Conservatives are down slightly since the summer, they regain the top spot after being overtaken by the NDP last June. The federal NDP, however, have seen the biggest decline since the summer, signaling the end of the honeymoon period for new leader Thomas Mulcair. The NDP would receive 30% of the popular vote, down 8 points from June, but would likely still remain the Official Opposition should a federal election be held tomorrow. This marks the lowest level of support for the NDP since Mulcair was officially announced the party's new leader last March, and only slightly higher than support levels before the NDP leadership contest. Nationally, support for the Bloc Quebecois sits at 7% (up 1 point), with Elizabeth May's Green Party (2%) or another party (2%) rounding out the ballot.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have remained consistent at 36% since the summer, while the Liberals (30%, up 8 pts.) and the NDP (30%, down 10 pts.) are in a dead heat revealing Liberal gains at the expense of the NDP. 2% of Ontarians support the Green Party while another 2% would support another party.
In Quebec, the NDP (34%) continues to be the top choice for the province that helped them claim the Official Opposition, although their numbers have been consistently declining (from 40% in June and 45% in May). Support for the Bloc Quebecois (26%) has seen no change from June, while the Conservatives (14%) are down slightly (4 pts.). The biggest gains in the province since the summer are seen in the Liberal ranks (25%, up 10 points), benefiting from declining Tory and NDP numbers in the province, putting them neck-and-neck with the Bloc. The Green Party remains at 1% of the vote in Quebec.
Support for all three major parties (CPC +3, LPC no change, and NDP -1) has remained stable for younger Canadians, aged 18-34, there has been interesting movement among middle-aged (35-54) and senior (55+) Canadians. The Liberals are up 9 points among middle-aged Canadians (to 25%) and up 12 points among senior Canadians (to 28%) since June with these numbers likely coming from NDP support ( down 8 points among 35-54 yr olds and down 12 points among those aged 55+).
The Liberal Party has made gains particularly with female voters since the summer: 24% of men (up 5 pts.) and 27% of women (up 11 pts.) would cast a vote for the Liberals should an election be held tomorrow. Conservatives are up 3 points among male voters (39%) but down 4 points among female voters (29%), while the NDP are down 8 points (27%) among men and down 9 points among women (32%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between November 6th to 8th, 2012, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone, and 1,009 interviews were conducted online via the Ipsos I-say panel. Ipsos merged the two sample sources and employed weighting to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflected that of the adult population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos mixed methodology polls are calculated using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points of the entire Canadian population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, methodology change, coverage error and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.509.8460
[email protected]
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