Canadian Consumer Confidence

Most Canadians believe the national economy is in good shape overall. However, amidst the flagging Canadian dollar and the financial crisis in Asia, consumers' one-year outlook for Canada's economy continues to moderate since last fall.

As for the provincial economies, residents of Alberta remain the most optimistic about their own province's economic prospects for 1998. Meanwhile, British Columbians' economic outlook for their province continues to deteriorate, with more than than one-half now expecting the B.C. economy to falter during the year ahead.

These findings emerged from a National Angus Reid Poll conducted among a representative cross-section of 1,524 Canadian adults between January 21st and 26th, 1998.

ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATE OF CANADIAN ECONOMY

• Most Canadians continue to believe the national economy is in good shape overall. Two in three (67%) of those surveyed in late January provided a favourable rating of the current state of Canada's economy (63% described it as "good", only 4% as "very good"), while half this number (33%) offered a negative appraisal (29% "poor", 4% "very poor").
• Although the public's assessment of overall economic conditions in Canada is only marginally better than last spring, it represents a significant improvement compared to one full year ago: the current 67 percent who describe the national economy as "good/very good" today is 12 points higher than the 55 percent who felt this way in January 1997.
• Regionally, the percentage who say the Canadian economy is currently in good shape overall ranges from just under the six in ten mark in Atlantic Canada (58%) and British Columbia (55%) to fully three-quarters of Albertans (77%).

OUTLOOK FOR THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

• Looking at the prospects for the coming year, Canadians' expectations for national economic performance remain fairly positive, but continue to slip from the bullishness recorded in the fall. Four in ten (39%) January survey respondents said they expect the national economy to "improve" during the coming year, double the number who thought economic conditions will "get worse" (21%). Little or no change either way was predicted by around four in ten (38%) Canadians.
• The proportion of Canadians expecting improvement in the national economy has dropped by 4 points since November and by 11 points since September when fully 50 percent were optimistic, the highest figure recorded since the Angus Reid Group began tracking this economic measure in 1987. Prior to last autumn, Canadians' outlook for the national economy had been improving fairly steadily since January of 1996 when only 18 percent foresaw improvement versus 35 percent who thought the economy would get worse, essentially the reverse of Canadians' outlook today.
• Once again, residents of Alberta are particularly optimistic about the prospects for the Canadian economy during the next 12 months (50% anticipate improvement), in sharpest contrast to their next-door neighbours in British Columbia (only 22% improve, continuing a slide from the 48% recorded in September).

OUTLOOK FOR THE PROVINCIAL ECONOMIES

• In terms of the provincial economies, Albertans also remain the most upbeat when it comes to the prospects for their own province's economy. A solid majority (62%) of surveyed residents said they expect the Alberta economy to get better during the coming year. Ontarians also tend to be optimistic about how well their province's economy will perform in 1998 (44% improve versus 21% get worse). (Table 3)
• Optimism exceeds pessimism in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (35% vs.17%), Quйbec (31% to 27%) and Atlantic Canada (34% vs.25%). In each of these three regions, however, a plurality of roughly four in ten residents believe the status quo will prevail.
• The mood among British Columbians, on the other hand, continues to sour: a full majority (57%) of residents now foresee worse times ahead for the B.C. economy over the coming year, more than triple the number who forecast an upswing (16%). Indeed, the "get worse" figure (57%) has increased from 43 percent in November and from only 29 percent exactly one year ago.

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between January 21st and 26th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,524 Canadian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,524, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group, Inc.
(416) 324-2900

or

Christian Bourque
Directeur senior de la Recherche
Groupe Angus Reid
(514) 877-5550