Canadian Farmers Would Re-elect a Conservative Government

Winnipeg, MB - An Ipsos Forward Research poll of members from Producers' Perspectives ~ the Ipsos Canadian AgriForum, conducted just prior to the call for the federal election, indicates that six in ten farmers in Canada (59%) would re-elect a Conservative government.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Conservative Party would receive the support of 59% of decided farm voters in Canada; the Liberals would be a distant second at 17%. Support for the NDP is pegged at 10%, with the Green Party following closely at 7%. Farmer support of the Bloc Quebecois is at 3% nationally (20% in Quebec) and 4% would vote for some "other" party. Beyond decided voters, 6% of farmers would not vote if an election were held tomorrow.

• With its rural base, the Conservatives have a strong hold on the farm vote across the Prairies and receive the strongest support in Alberta (80% of decided voters), followed by Manitoba (68%) and Saskatchewan (64%).
• More than half of farmers in Ontario (54%) would choose the Conservatives; two times as many as those who would vote for the Liberals (26%). The Green Party is a distant third in this province at 9%, similar to the number expected to support the NDP (7%).
• Half of the farmers in British Columbia (48%) say they will support the Conservatives, ahead of the NDP with one quarter of the vote (26%). The Liberals and Green Party are tied for third place at 12% each.
• In the Atlantic provinces, the Conservatives hold the majority of the decided vote at 43%, followed closely by the Liberals with 39%. The NDP is expected to get 6% of the decided vote, just slightly more than the Green Party at 4%.
• The Conservatives hold a marginal lead in Quebec (26% of decided voters), however, their support is lowest here when compared with the rest of the country. The remaining farmer votes in Quebec would be split fairly evenly between Liberals (23%), NDP (22%), Bloc Quebecois (20%). The Green Party trails with 8%.

Based on recall of how they voted in the 2006 election and compared with the way they feel today, farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen 6 percentage points (65% of decided voters in 2006 versus 59% now). This shift in support is split between the Liberal Party (17% up from 16%), the NDP (10% of the decided vote, up from 8%), and the Green Party (7% up from 5%). Only the Bloc has seen a decrease (3% down from 4%) that suggests a substantial drop within Quebec (20% down from 29%).

Farmers see the Conservatives as the party that would be most helpful in meeting the needs of the agriculture community; however, many are uncertain who would be best in this role.

While the majority of farmers are planning to vote Conservative, they are somewhat less likely to believe that the Conservatives would be best at meeting the needs of the agricultural community overall (41%). That being said, they are still seen to be best out of all of the mainstream parties combined by almost a two-to-one margin (NDP, 10%, Liberal Party 7%, Green Party 3%, Bloc Quebecois 2% - 13% in Quebec).

Nevertheless, 37% of farmers are uncertain who would be most helpful in handling the agriculture portfolio on a national basis, suggesting that there is room for one of the federal parties to establish a stronger position among this electorate.

• At the provincial level, Prairie farmers typically give the nod to the Conservatives in terms of the party and leader that would be most helpful in meeting the needs of industry, with Albertans (61%) followed by farmers in Saskatchewan (50%) and Manitoba (42%) holding this view. Conservative support is not as strong outside of the Prairies, though other Canadian farmers are still most likely to see the Conservatives as best meeting the needs of the agriculture industry (British Columbia 34%, Ontario 30%, Atlantic 25% and Quebec 24%).
• Producers in Ontario (48%) and the Atlantic provinces (47%) were the most uncertain about who would best meet the needs of the industry, suggesting some possible dissent in farmer support for the Conservatives in these regions. In comparison, only about one third of farmers from other regions of the country reported being uncertain about who would best help the industry (Alberta 28%, Manitoba 33%, Quebec 34%, Saskatchewan 35% and British Columbia 36%).

These results are based on findings from 856 online surveys with members of Producers' Perspectives ~ the Ipsos Canadian ArgiForum. Surveys were conducted from August 22 to September 6, 2008. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Canadian population of farmers been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. The final data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and farm type compositions reflect the actual Canadian farm population with $10,000 or more in gross annual farm sales, according to the 2006 Census of Agriculture.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Curtis Johnson
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Forward Research
(204) 949-3110
[email protected]

About Producers' Perspectives ~ the Ipsos Canadian AgriForum

Producers' Perspectives ~ the Ipsos Canadian AgriForum, is an online community that is powered by Ipsos' custom and proprietary Interactive Forum software. Currently, over 2,000 producers from across Canada have joined the Producers' Perspectives AgriForum. All farm operation types found in Canada are represented within the membership of the Producers' Perspectives AgriForum - from operations with a large base of producers, such as Field Crop or Cattle operations, to smaller groups such as Horticulture/Viticulture producers and specialty Livestock producers.

Canadian agricultural producers interested in having their opinions heard can join the Producers' Perspectives AgriForum at: www.members.producersperspectives.ca.

About Ipsos Forward Research

The Ipsos Forward Research team is comprised of 30 professionals in Canada and the U.S. with a broad range of backgrounds in the agriculture, food and animal health industries. Our practice has a North American focus with global capabilities.

We have more than 25 years experience in agricultural, animal health and food-related market research - with extensive experience conducting research with a broad range of audiences - farmers, retailers/distributors, veterinarians, stakeholders and consumers.

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