The Canadian Federal Election Campaign and Social Media: Ground Breaking Research Measures Participation Rate among Potential Voters During an Election Campaign

Toronto, ON - Heading into the federal election, many in the media had predicted that this campaign would be the first social media campaign in Canadian political history with Facebook, Twitter and specific news web sites or blogs fuelling a revolution in potential voter social engagement during and for the 2011 Federal election.

However, a groundbreaking Ipsos Reid survey--the first of its kind measuring actual potential voter involvement behaviour during an actual election campaign--shows that just 6% of the entire Canadian adult population (1,470,000 potential voters) is ardently logging on to social networking sites like Facebook or MySpace or media news sites and blogs each day specifically to discuss public policy and political issues.

But the study also shows the fertile ground of potential voters who could sprout up in future election campaigns with a total of one-in-five Canadians (21%--5,154,000 potential voters) engaged through social media or traditional news media web sites in the past week (6% "daily", 8% "a couple of times" over the last week and another 7% saying that they've done it once in the past week).

Who's joined the Discussions?

Among the 21% of Canadians who are engaging through social media or traditional news media online, younger respondents (18 to 34 years: 29%) are most likely to say they are engaged on a weekly basis, as compared to middle-aged (35 to 54: 22%) or older Canadians (55 years and older: 15%). However, while younger Canadians may be more likely to join, it's middle-aged (9%) and older Canadians (6%) who are much more engaged on a daily basis with social media public policy/ political discussion groups than their younger counterparts (4%).

The research also shows that those engaged in social media discussions daily on policy and politics are most likely to be Male (9%) versus Female (5%) and most likely from Atlantic Canada (11%) followed by Quebec (8%), Ontario (7%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba & British Columbia (each at 6%), and Alberta (4%). By Party affiliation, they are voters who favour Conservatives (7%), Liberals (7%), NDP (7%) and the Bloc (8%) to almost the same degree--followed by the Green Party (4%) supporters.

But this tight group of similar percentages shifts significantly with the aperture opening to the full 21% of those checking in at least once a week: Liberal (28%) and NDP voters (28%) are much more active than are Conservative (20%), Green (19%) and Bloc voters (15%). This suggests that while the regular, daily drumbeat of activity on social networks spans the partisan spectrum pretty evenly, the wider audience checking in on a weekly basis is decidedly politically "left" leaning.

Where do Canadians go when they discuss public policy and political issues online?

When totalling websites where Canadians go for public policy and political discussion mentioned by at least one percent of respondents, the results show a fairly even split between New Media sites (net: 18%) and Traditional Media sites (net: 15%). These include:

• New Media sites, dominated by Facebook (15%)--followed by Twitter (2%), MSN (2%), Yahoo (1%), and blogs (1%) are the top choices.
• Traditional Media sites are a more diverse assortment, led by CBC (8%), followed by CTV (3%), The Globe and Mail (3%), Radio Canada (1%), Cyberpresse (1%), Canoe.ca (1%), and the Toronto Star (1%).

Among the 21% who say they engage in public policy and political discussion on at least a weekly basis, New Media destinations (net: 42%) outpace Traditional Media destinations (net: 35%)

• Among New Media sites, Facebook (38%) is most often the forum, followed distantly by Twitter (4%), MSN (3%), Yahoo (2%) and blogs (2%).
• Among Traditional Media sites, CBC (20%) is the preferred choice, followed by CTV (6%), The Globe and Mail (6%), the Toronto Star (2%), Radio Canada (1%) and Cyberpresse (1%).

Where do voters who have committed to one of the federal parties go?

• Among Conservative voters who go to a site are evenly divided between New Media (net: 16%, led by Facebook at 12%) and Traditional Media site (net: 14%, led by CBC at 8%).
• Liberal voters are more likely to go to Traditional Media sites (net: 26%, led by CBC at 18%) than to New Media sites (net: 23%, led by Facebook at 22%).
• NDP voters are evenly divided between New Media (net: 18%, led by Facebook at 15%) and Traditional Media (net: 16%, led by CBC at 6%).
• Bloc voters are more likely to go to New Media sites (net: 20%, led by Facebook at 16%) than to Traditional Media sites (net: 12%, led by Radio Canada at 7%, followed closely by Cyberpresse, the online outlet for La Presse, at 5%).
• Green Party voters are more likely to go to New Media sites (net: 21%, lead by Facebook at 19%) than to Traditional Media sites (net: 11%, led by CNN at 6%).

What about the "undecided voters"? Are there more undecided voters engaged at least once a week via social or news media logging on and participating than "regular" potential voters?

No--undecided Canadians among the general potential Canadian voter pool is at 8% while those undecided voters visiting at least once a week to a social or news media site to participate in a discussion on policy or politics is 6%.

10 Quick Findings

• 21% of Canadian adults (18+) are directly "engaged" in social media/news media web sites at least once a week specifically logging on and discussing, on a site, public policy and political issues--5,145,000 potential voters.
• As for ardent, daily participants in social/news media it's limited to one in 17 Canadian adults or 1,470,000 potential voters.
• While younger Canadians (aged 18-34) are more likely than middle-aged and older Canadians to engage on at least a weekly basis, middle aged (9%) and older Canadians (6%) are more likely to be engaged on a daily basis with social media public policy/ political discussion groups than their younger counterparts (4%).
• Geographically, Atlantic Canadians (11%) are the most ardently involved social/news media daily participants.
• No single political party has a group of committed voters more likely than the other to have ardent, daily, participants in social/news media activities--but Green Party committed voters are least likely to be daily participants.
• However, Liberal (28%) and NDP voters (29%) are much more likely than Conservative (20%) and Bloc (15%) supporters to engage on a weekly basis.
• Those who are visiting a social/news media site to participate at least once a week are not more likely to be undecided voters (6% are undecided compared to 8% among all voters).
• Canadians are just slightly more likely to say they visit New Media destinations (net: 18%) than Traditional Media sites (15%) for online public policy and political discussion.
• Liberal (26%) and NDP supporters (16%) are more likely than Conservative (14%), Bloc (12%) and Green voters (11%) to say they are engaging on a Traditional Media website.
• Overall, the top destinations for frequent policy and political discussion online are Facebook (15%) and CBC (8%).

These are just some of the findings of the Social Media and Political Engagement Study conducted by Ipsos Reid from March 22-24, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Organizations wishing the total findings and data in a much more fulsome report and presentation may contact the undersigned for pricing options.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Mike Colledge
President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(613) 688-8971
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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