Canadians (53%) Tell MPs To Vote In Favour Of Throne Speech In Order To Avoid Election

Ottawa, ON - When Governor-General Michaelle Jean lays out the minority Conservative governments Speech from the Throne on the evening of Tuesday, October 15, 2007, there is a line that will not appear in the text; but if Canadians could write it, it would be as follows: don't defeat the Throne Speech when the government brings it to Parliament for a vote because there is nothing in it worth defeating the government over and forcing or causing an election. Further, if the Throne Speech is defeated and causes an election, it is the Opposition, and not the government who will wear the blame.

In fact, when asked this past weekend as to whether or not their local member of Parliament should vote in favour of the Speech from the Throne to avoid an election, or vote against the Speech from the Throne and call an election, a full majority (53%) of Canadians indicated that they want their MP to vote in favour of the Throne Speech in order to avoid an election. This compares to only 37% who believe that the Throne Speech should be voted down and cause an election. A remaining 10% of Canadians indicated that they don't know what their Member of Parliament should do.

Even in the heartland of Conservative strength -- Alberta -- there appears to be little appetite for an election to be triggered with the largest majority of any region in the country at 69% believing that the opposition should vote in favour of the Throne Speech to avoid an election as opposed to voting against the Throne Speech and forcing a call for an election. Further, a majority or plurality of citizens in every other region or province agree with them, with the second highest majority against defeating the Throne Speech coming from Quйbec (57%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (51%), British Columbia (50%), Ontario (48%), and Atlantic Canada (47%).

In terms of those citizens in provinces or regions who want the government to fall and an election to ensue, they are most likely to be found in either British Columbia or Atlantic Canada (42%), followed by Ontario (39%), Quйbec (37%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (34%) and Alberta (22%).

And if the Opposition parties defeat the Throne Speech, their apparent motives and any blame assigned will certainly make the government appear in a better light than themselves: a majority (56%) of Canadians believe that if the Speech from the Throne is defeated `it will be mostly because the opposition parties are just trying to score political points against Stephen Harper and the Conservatives' as opposed to the 41% who believe that `it will be mostly because it contains policies that are bad for the country, and the Opposition parties are forced to vote against it.'

Of the 56% who believe that a defeat of the Throne Speech is just because of the opposition trying to score political points, they are most like you to come from Alberta (71%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (56%), Ontario and Atlantic Canada (55%), British Columbia (54%) and Quйbec (51%). Of those 41% who believe that a defeat of the Throne Speech by the Opposition is because it contains policies that are bad for the country and they are forced to vote against it, they're most likely to come from Quйbec (47%), followed by British Columbia (45%), Ontario (41%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (36%), Atlantic Canada (34%) and Alberta (27%). Overall, 4% indicate that they `don't know'.

And who would get the blame if the Throne Speech was defeated? A majority (52%) of Canadians will blame the Opposition parties and their leaders--most of whom come from Alberta (66%), followed by citizens in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%), British Colombia and Quйbec (52%), Ontario (49%) and Atlantic Canada (44%). Of the 41% who would blame Stephen Harper and the Conservatives they're most likely to come from Atlantic Canada (51%) followed then by British Columbia/Ontario/Quйbec (42%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (32%) and Alberta (31%). Overall, 7% indicate that they `don't know'.

And in terms of what Canadians want to see in the Throne Speech, there appears to be no single deal-breaker for Canadians that would warrant the opposition parties to vote down the Government. In fact, there is no issue where a majority of Canadians believe that its exclusion from the speech would necessitate defeating the government.

Nevertheless, Canadians have outlined a list of priorities that they believe must be included in the Throne Speech or the government should be defeated. First on their list is `help for families who are in poverty', where four in ten Canadians indicated that this issue `absolutely must be in the Throne Speech' (42%), followed closely by the announcement of a `withdrawal of Canadian troops from Afghanistan by the beginning of 2009' (39%) and the `re-introduction of clean air legislation, Bill C-30 (33%).

Other issues which Canadians believe must be in the Throne Speech include: `tax cuts' (32%), `compliance with the Kyoto Protocol' (30%), `tough law and order legislation' (29%), a `withdrawal of Canadians troops from Afghanistan Immediately' (29%), `keeping the gun registry' (20%), the continuation of supply management in the agriculture sector (20%), the `elimination of all federal power in provincial jurisdictions (20% national, 29% in Quebec), `a plan to deal with Canadian Dollar parity' (18%), and `promises to help Quebec's battered forestry industry' (14% national, 30% in Quebec).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from Oct 9 -14, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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