Canadians Assess Their Federal Leaders

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos Reid survey released today on behalf of CanWest Global indicates that when it comes to the question of who Canadian believe would make the best Prime Minister, forty-six percent choose incumbent minority government Prime Minister Stephen Harper- nearly double the proportion who choose Stephane Dion (25%), and well ahead of Jack Layton (29%). Further, the Prime Minister does well on other attributes that were tested among the three Federal Leaders:

• "Someone who will get things done" (Stephen Harper (51%) compared to Stephane Dion (25 %) and Jack Layton (24 %);
• "Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada" (46% choose Stephen Harper vs. 26% for Stephane Dion and 25% for Jack Layton);
• "Someone you can trust" (39% choose Stephen Harper vs. 25% for Stephan Dion and 31% for Jack Layton); and
• "Someone who has values that are close to your own" (37% choose Stephen Harper vs. 24% for Stephane Dion and 32% for Jack Layton).

Also, and perhaps worrisome for Mr. Dion and the Liberal Party, is how their major policy fixture of the Environment as a key plank of differentiation with Mr. Harper and his Conservatives plays out in a head to head choice between the two leaders when Canadians are asked who they think would "get things done" when it comes to this issue: 52% point to Stephen Harper versus 48% for Stephane Dion.

Further, when Canadians are asked to judge which leader is "sincerely committed to dealing with global warming", Mr. Dion scores only 29% recognition compared with Mr. Harper at 30% and Mr. Layton at 41%.

Despite the fact that Mr. Harper leads in nearly all of the leadership descriptors asked about in the survey, the Liberal Party might be able to take solace that many (44%) feel Mr. Harper is someone who "has a hidden agenda" (vs. 34% who say the same about Stephane Dion and 20% who say this about Jack Layton).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid survey fielded from February 15th to 19th, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians were interviewed via an on-line survey. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Stephen Harper Chosen by Largest Proportion (46%) As Leader Who Would Make Best Prime Minister Vs. 29% Who Choose Jack Layton and 25% Who Choose Stephane Dion...

• Stephen Harper (46%) -- most likely in Alberta (71%), followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (52%), Ontario (44%), Atlantic Canada (39%) and Quйbec (38%); men (51%) vs. women (41%), middle aged (45%) and older (53%), and middle to high income (49%).
• Jack Layton (29%) -- most likely in Quйbec (32%), Ontario and Atlantic Canada (31%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28%), British Columbia (25%) and Alberta (18%); women (34%) and men (24%), younger (37%), and lower income (40%).
• Stephane Dion (25%) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (30%) and Quйbec (29%) followed by Ontario (26%), British Columbia (23%) and Alberta (11%); men and women (25%), all ages (25%).

Harper Edges Ahead of Dion In A Head To Head Choice Between The Two On Who Would "Get Things Done" On The Environment File...

Canadians were given a head-to-head choice as to who they believed would "get things done" when it comes to doing something about the environment. At a time when Conservative advertising is pummelling Mr. Dion for not getting things done on the environment file, there may be indeed be traction now for the Conservatives as Mr. Harper [52%] leads Mr. Dion [48%].

Mr. Harper is most likely to be viewed as the leader who would "get things done" when it comes to doing something about the environment in Alberta [83%], followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba [61%], British Columbia [56%], Ontario [40%], Atlantic Canada [47%] and Quйbec [45%]. This compares to Mr. Dion who is most likely to be cited in Quйbec [55%], followed by Atlantic Canada [53%] and Ontario [52%], British Columbia [44%] and Alberta [17%].

Leadership Attributes by Leader...

Details and Demographics...

Someone you can trust...

• Stephen Harper (41%) -- most likely in Alberta (70%) followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (52%), British Colombia (43%), Ontario (39%), Quйbec (35%) and Atlantic Canada (27%); men (43%) and women (40%), middle aged (41%) and older (50%).
• Stephane Dion (26%) -- most likely Quйbec (29%), Ontario (28%), Atlantic Canada (27%), and British Columbia (26%), followed by Alberta (20%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (16%); men (27%) and women (26%), and all ages.
• Jack Layton (32 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (46%) followed by Quйbec (36%), Ontario (33%), British Columbia (32%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%) and Alberta (9%); women (34%) and men (30%), younger (40%) and middle aged (35%).

Someone who will get things done...

• Stephen Harper (51 %) -- most likely in Alberta (78%) followed by sketch 1/Manitoba (51%) and Quйbec (50%), British Columbia (49%), Ontario (47%) and Atlantic Canada (39%); men (56%) and women (45%) and older (60%).
• Stephane Dion (25 %) -- most likely in British Columbia (30%), followed by Atlantic Canada (27%), Ontario and Quйbec (26%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (17%) and Alberta (15%); women (27%) and men (24%), and all ages.
• Jack Layton (24 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (34%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%), Ontario (27%), Quйbec (24%), British Colombia (20%) and Alberta (8%); women (28%) and men (20%), younger (32%).

Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada...

• Stephen Harper (48 %) -- most likely in Alberta (75%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (50%), British Columbia (49%), Quйbec (45%), Ontario (44%) and Atlantic Canada (38%); men (51%) and women (44%), older (50%).
• Stephane Dion (27 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (33%), followed by Quйbec and British Columbia (28%) and Ontario (27%), Saskatchewan (21%) and Alberta (16%); women (27%) and men (26%), all ages.
• Jack Layton (26 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (29%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%), Ontario (28%), Quйbec (27%), British Columbia (23%) and Alberta (29%); women (29%) and Man (22%), younger (35%).

Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support...

• Stephen Harper (42 %) -- most likely in Alberta (75%) followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (47%) and British Columbia (46%), Ontario (39%), Quйbec (36%) and Atlantic Canada (27%); men (26%) and women (38%), older (51%).
• Stephane Dion (28 %) -- most likely Atlantic Canada (35%), followed by Quйbec (30%) and Ontario (29%), British Columbia (27%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (22%) and Alberta (13%); men (28%) and women (27%), younger (31%).
• Jack Layton (30 %) -- most likely Atlantic Canada (38%), followed by Quйbec (34%), Ontario (32%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%), British Columbia (27%) and Alberta (13%); women (35%) and men (26%), younger (36%).

Someone who has values that are close to your own...

• Stephen Harper (40 %) -- most likely in Alberta (70%), followed by British Columbia (45%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%), Ontario (38%), Quйbec (32%) and Atlantic Canada (29%); men (44%) and women (36%), older (49%).
• Stephane Dion (26 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (30%), followed by Ontario (26%), Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%), British Columbia (24%) and Alberta (18%); women (27%) and Man (25%), all ages.
• Jack Layton (34 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (46%), followed by Quйbec (38%), Ontario (36%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%), British Columbia (31%) and Alberta (13%); women (37%) and Man (31%), younger (41%) and middle age (37%).

Someone who is sincerely committed to dealing with global warming...

• Stephen Harper (30 %) -- most likely in Alberta (56%) followed by British Columbia (37%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%), Ontario (26%), Quйbec (24%) and Atlantic Canada (20%); women (31%) and men (30%), older (35%).
• Stephane Dion (29 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (38%), followed by Ontario (30%), Atlantic Canada (28%), British Columbia (23%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%) and Alberta (12%); women (29%) and men (28%), older (33%).
• Jack Layton (41 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (52%) followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (45%) and Ontario (44%), British Columbia (40%), Quйbec (38%) and Alberta (32%); men (43%) and women (40%), younger (49%).

As someone who has a hidden agenda...

• Stephen Harper (45 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (57%), followed by Ontario (50%) and the British Columbia (50%), Quйbec (39%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (34%) and Alberta (32%); men and women (45%), younger (52%) and middle age (47%).
• Stephane Dion (35 %) -- most likely and Alberta (47%), followed by Quйbec (42%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), Atlantic Canada (35%), Ontario (30%) and British Columbia (24%); men (35%) and women (34%), older (44%).
• Jack Layton (20 %) -- most likely in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28%) and British Columbia (26%), followed by Alberta (21%) and Quйbec (20%), Ontario (19%) and Atlantic Canada (8%); women (21%) and men (20%), all ages.

Someone who is open to the ideas of others...

• Stephen Harper (34 %) -- most likely in Alberta (66%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (45%), British Columbia (42%), Ontario (29%), Atlantic Canada (28%), and Quйbec (26%); men (37%) and women (31%), middle age (35%) and older (40%).
• Stephane Dion (28 %) -- most likely in Ontario (32%) and Atlantic Canada (32%), followed by British Columbia (27%) and Quйbec (26%), and Alberta (19%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%); men (29%) and women (26%), all ages.
• Jack Layton (38 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (48%), followed by Ontario (40%) and Atlantic Canada (40%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%), British Columbia (31%) and Alberta (15%); women (42%) and men (34%), younger (45%).

Someone who will fight for what they believe is right even if most people disagree with them...

• Stephen Harper (42 %) -- most likely in Alberta (62%) followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (49%) and British Columbia (48%), Atlantic Canada (42%), Ontario (39%) and Quйbec (35%); men (46%) and women (39%), middle age (46%).
• Stephane Dion (22 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (27%), followed by Ontario (23%) and it led to Canada (22%), British Columbia (19%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba of (14%) and Alberta (13%); men and women (22%), all ages.
• Jack Layton (36 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (38%), Ontario and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), and Atlantic Canada (36%), followed by British Columbia (32%) and Alberta (25%); women (39%) and men (31%), younger (40%)

Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good...

• Stephen Harper (40 %) -- most likely in Alberta (63%) followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (50%), British Columbia (43%), Ontario (38%), Atlantic Canada (34%) and Quйbec (33%); men (43%) and women (37%), older (46%).
• Stephane Dion (26 %) -- most likely in Ontario (30%), followed by Quйbec (27%) and Atlantic Canada (26%), British Columbia (24%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%) and Alberta (14%); men (27%) and women (26%), younger (30%).
• Jack Layton (34 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (40%) and Quйbec (39%), followed by British Columbia (33%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Ontario (32%), and Alberta (23%); men (38%) and women (30%), younger (39%).

Someone who is conceited and full of themselves...

• Stephen Harper (47 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (58%), followed by Ontario (51%) and British Columbia (50%), Quйbec (42%), and Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36%); women (48% and then (45%), younger (51%) and middle age (50%).
• Stephane Dion (30 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (45%), followed by Alberta (33%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%), British Columbia and Ontario (24%), and Atlantic Canada (20%); men (33%) and women (28%), older (35%).
• Jack Layton (23 %) -- most likely in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (34%) followed by Alberta (31%), British Columbia and Ontario (26%), Atlantic Canada (23%) and Quйbec (13%); women (24%) and men (22%), older (26%)

Someone who will say anything to get elected...

• Stephen Harper (40 %) -- most likely in Atlantic Canada (54%), followed by Ontario (46%) and British Columbia (45%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), Quйbec (32%) and Alberta (24%) ; women (43%) and men (37%), younger (46%) and middle age (44%).
• Stephane Dion (38 %) -- most likely in Quйbec (49%), followed by Alberta (41%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (39%), Ontario (35%), Atlantic Canada (20%) and British Columbia (25%); men (42%) and women (34%), older (45%).
• Jack Layton (22%) -- most likely in Alberta (35%), followed by British Columbia (30%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%), Quйbec (20%), Ontario (18%) and Atlantic Canada (17%); women (23%) and men (21%), younger (23%) and older (24%).

For more information on this press release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

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