Canadians Prefer Harper Majority, Spring Election

Ottawa, ON - In light of the Harper Government's Throne Speech this week and Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's subsequent decision not to defeat the government, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service reveals that while two thirds of Canadians do not want an election to be held until at least the spring (68%), if an election were at some point to be forced by the opposition parties, a majority believe that the best outcome from that election would be to elect a majority (58%) government, not a minority (34%).

It appears that Stephane Dion was correct when he declared that Canadians do not want a an election at this time, with just one quarter (22%) of Canadians more closely associating with the sentiment that `politics is Ottawa is dysfunctional and we need an election now'. This is compared to the vast majority (68%) of Canadians who more closely believe that `spring is the earliest we should have an election due to important work that still needs to be done by the government.' One in nine (11%) do not know when the best time for an election would be.

The results from this poll also reveal that the Conservative Party under Stephen Harper has maintained the support of 40% of Canadians, while support for the Liberals under Stephan Dion has slipped by one point and now sits at 27% support nationally among decided voters. The NDP under Jack Layton now has the support of 14% of Canadians (down two points since last week), while the Green Party has the support of 8% of Canadians (up one point since last week). Eight percent (8%) of voters Canada-wide are undecided as to which party they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow.

In Quebec, the Bloc has the support of 36% (an increase of three points) of decided voters, while the Conservatives have dropped one point and now sit at 26% support. The Liberals (19%, an increase of one point) and the NDP (12%, a decrease of two points) trail significantly in Quebec. With the Conservatives hovering at 40% nationally, a majority is still in sight for Harper. But this result appears to be what Canadians prefer. More specifically, if an election were to be called, six in ten (58%) Canadians believe that that the best outcome for Canada would be a majority government, while just one third (34%) believe that the best outcome would be a minority government.

Among Canadians who believe that a majority government would be the best outcome, six in ten (58%) believe that that majority should be led by Stephen Harper, compared to just three in ten (28%) who believe that it should be led by Stephane Dion. One in nine (11%) believes that neither of these men should be leading a majority government. Among Canadians who believe that a minority government would be the best outcome for Canada, more Canadians believe that it should be led by Harper (43%) than by Dion (36%). Although, two in ten (18%) believe that neither of these individuals should be leading a minority government.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from Oct 16 -18, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

In the Regions...

British Columbia:

In BC, the Tories have the support of 40% (steady) of decided voters, while the Liberals trail at 26% support (increase of three points). In third place are the NDP at 22% support (decrease of eight points), and the Green Party is at 10% support (increase of four points). Two thirds (67%) of British Columbians believe that the earliest Canada should have an election is the spring, while a majority (52%) believes the best outcome of an election would be a majority government, not a minority (36%). Of those who would prefer a majority government, more (59%) would like to see it led by Harper, not Dion (27%). However, of those who would prefer a minority government, more (43%) would prefer to see it led by Dion, not Harper (37%).

Alberta:

In Alberta, the Conservatives have the support of 60% (down three points) of decided voters, while the Liberals (18%, down four points) and the NDP (15%, up nine points) lag behind significantly. The Green Party is at 6% support (down one point).

Three quarters (73%) of Albertans believe that the earliest Canada should have an election is the spring, while seven in ten (70%) believe the best outcome of an election would be a majority government, not a minority (27%). Of those who would prefer a majority government, substantially more (79%) would like to see it led by Harper, not Dion (19%). Of those who would prefer a minority government, more (56%) would prefer to see it led by Harper, not Dion (31%).

Saskatchewan and Manitoba:

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories have the support of 55% (up four points) of decided voters, which is well ahead of both the Liberals (28%, increase of nine points) and the NDP (9%, decrease of thirteen points). The Green Party has 8% (increase of four points) support in these provinces. Two thirds (64%) of Canadians living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba believe that the earliest Canada should have an election is the spring, while two thirds (66%) believe the best outcome of an election would be a majority government, not a minority (22%). Of those who would prefer a majority government, more (46%) would like to see it led by Harper, not Dion (30%). Of those who would prefer a minority government, more (58%) would prefer to see it led by Harper, not Dion (28%).

Ontario:

In vote-rich Ontario, Harper enjoys support from four in ten (42%, up two points) decided voters, with the Liberals behind by eight points at 34% (down three points) support. The NDP trails at 13% (down one point) support, and the Green Party has the support of 10% (up two points) of Ontarians. Seven in ten (68%) Ontarians believe that the earliest Canada should have an election is the spring, while a majority (55%) believes the best outcome of an election would be a majority government, not a minority (39%). Of those who would prefer a majority government, more (57%) would like to see it led by Harper, not Dion (31%). Of those who would prefer a minority government, more (43%) would prefer to see it led by Harper, not Dion (37%).

Quebec:

In Quebec, the Bloc maintains a plurality among voters with 36% (up three points) support, while the Tories have slipped slightly to 26% (down one point) support. The Liberals continue to trail significantly with the support of only 19% (increase of one point) of Quebecers, while the NDP lags even further behind at 12% (down two points) support. The Green Party has 6% (down one point) support within Quebec.

Three quarters (73%) of Quebecers believe that the earliest Canada should have an election is the spring, while a majority (63%) believes the best outcome of an election would be a majority government, not a minority (32%). Of those who would prefer a majority government, more (56%) would like to see it led by Harper, not Dion (24%). Of those who would prefer a minority government, more (51%) would prefer to see it led by Harper, not Dion (29%).

Atlantic Canada:

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (44%, down one point) remain ahead of the Tories (39%, increase of two point), while the NDP (13%, down two points) and Green Party (4%, steady) have the support of far fewer decided voters in this region. Just 44% of Atlantic Canadians believe that the earliest Canada should have an election is the spring (30% believe Canada should have an election now, higher than any other province), while note quite half (49%) believes the best outcome of an election would be a majority government, not a minority (35%). Of those who would prefer a majority government, more (52%) would like to see it led by Harper, not Dion (37%). Of those who would prefer a minority government, far more (48%) would prefer to see it led by Dion, not Harper (8%).

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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