Canadians Split on Whether Opposition Parties Can be Trusted (45%) Or Not (49%) With Secret
Afghan Detainee Issue Documents

Toronto, ON - House Speaker Peter Milliken made history last week in a ruling which upholds the notion of Parliamentary Supremacy, meaning that Parliament has an unqualified right to any and all government documents it wishes to see, whether they be classified by the government or not. However, understanding the Government's desire to protect national security, the Speaker has given the Government and opposition parties two weeks to reach a deal that would ensure access to these documents by certain members of Parliament while still protecting the national interests and security of the country.

A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global National has found that Canadians are split on whether opposition parties can be trusted with these sensitive documents, as one half (45%) more closely believes in the sentiment that they `can be trusted with the uncensored documents because they will keep secret what could be harmful to our national security'. Taking a more sceptical approach, the other half (49%) of Canadians are closer to the opinion that opposition parties `can't be trusted to keep secret the information that's important to our national security because all they will do is play partisan politics with what they learn'. Nearly one in ten (6%) don't know with which statement they more closely agree.

If a deal is not met, it is likely that the Speaker would then allow an opposition motion finding the Government in contempt of Parliament, which, if considered a matter of confidence, would cause the government to fall and an election to follow. However, Canadians are widely against having an election fought on this matter, even though half (47%) consider it to be a `really big issue', compared to the other half of Canadians who think it's `not really much of an issue' (30%) or `not an issue at all' (21%).

If an agreement between the two parties is not reached, seven in ten (70%) Canadians believe this issue `isn't justification for having an election', while three in ten (28%) think that `if the parties don't reach an agreement we should have an election to resolve the issue'. Just 2% are undecided on the matter.

If an election were caused by failing to reach an agreement on the release of the documents and Canadians were forced to place the blame either with the Conservative Government or with the opposition parties, nearly one half (47%) would blame the government for causing an election, while four in ten (42%) would point a finger at the opposition parties. One in ten (12%) are unsure of who would be to blame.

And if an election were held tomorrow, not much has changed since two weeks ago: the Conservatives under Stephen Harper would receive 35% of the vote among decided voters (unchanged), while Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals would garner 29% of the popular vote (unchanged). The NDP led by Jack Layton would receive 16% of the vote (unchanged), and Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc would receive 10% of the national vote (up 1 point). The Green Party under Elizabeth May has the support of 9% of voters (down 1 point), while 6% of Canadians remain undecided.

In Quebec, the Bloc (39%) has widened its lead over the Grits (23%), Tories (19%), NDP (13%) and Green Party (5%).

In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (36%) and the Liberals (36%) are in a dead heat, while the NDP (16%) and the Green Party (12%) trail behind.

Regardless of the Afghanistan detainee transfer issue and the accusations that Canadian officials knew that they were handing prisoners over to certain torture by Afghan Forces, nearly all (93%) Canadians `agree' (70% very much/22% somewhat) that they are `proud of the men and women serving in our Canadian Armed Forces'. Just 7% `disagree' (3% very much/4% somewhat) that they are proud. The only province to deviate slightly from these results is Quebec where 84% agree with this sentiment, and 16% disagree.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from May 4 to 6, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

Atlantic Canadians, Quebecers Most Likely to Think This is a Big Issue, Election Should Ensue if Deal Not Found...

The data revealed some interesting regional differences on the issue of the release of documents relating to the Afghanistan detainee question:

• Atlantic Canadians (58%) and Quebecers (57%) are by far the most likely to believe that the Afghan detainee issue is a `big issue', while only a minority of those living in Ontario (46%), British Columbia (44%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (32%) and Alberta (31%) believe it's a `big issue'.
• Quebec is the only jurisdiction wherein more believe that opposition parties can be trusted with the documents (56%) than can't (38%). In Atlantic Canada, folks are split evenly (45% vs. 45%). In Alberta (61% can't vs. 37% can), British Columbia (55% can't vs. 34% can), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54% can't vs. 38% can) and Ontario (50% can't vs. 45% can), more believe that opposition parties cannot be trusted with these documents than believe they can be trusted with them.
• Atlantic Canadians (35%) and Quebecers (34%) are the most likely to believe that, if the parties can't come to a decision, we should have an election to resolve this issue. Significantly fewer living in Ontario (28%), British Columbia (26%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (20%) and Alberta (14%) believe the same.
• If an election were to ensue as a result, Quebecers (63%) are the most likely to point their finger at the Conservative Party for causing the election, while fewer Canadians living in Atlantic Canada (47%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (45%), Ontario (43%), British Columbia (41%) and Alberta (32%) would blame the Tories. Blame for the opposition parties is highest in Alberta (59%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (50%), British Columbia (48%), Ontario (43%), Atlantic Canada (32%) and then Quebec (30%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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