Canadians Warming to Election Talk as Tories Close Gap in Key Battlegrounds Across the Country

Ottawa, ON - With election rhetoric between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Opposition Leader Stephane Dion heating up, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that the Conservatives (36%, up 2 points) continue to lead the Grits (30%, unchanged) nationally among decided voters.

Further, if an election were to happen tomorrow, the NDP would receive 14% of the vote (unchanged), while the Green Party would receive support from one in ten (10%, down 1 point) Canadians. Six percent (6%) of Canadians remain undecided.

Focusing on vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals (35%) are slightly ahead of the Tories (33%), while the NDP (15%) and Green Party (16%) are statistically tied for third place.

In Quebec, the Bloc remains safely in the lead (34%), while the Liberals (25%) and Conservatives (25%) fight it out for second position. The NDP is receiving support from 11% of Quebecers, while the Green Party (5%) trails significantly.

The data also reveal that Canadians appear to be warming to the idea of a election. While in the spring only 27% of Canadians wanted an election, currently four in ten (40%) are of the opinion that `we really need an election to clear the air'. Further, the proportion of Canadians who say `there's no need for an election at the moment' has dropped drastically from 66% in March to 38% currently. Additionally, one in four (23%) Canadians do not know with which statement they more closely identify (up from 7% in March).

Since July 11, Tories Gaining Momentum Across the Country...

The Tories under Stephen Harper have increased their national lead from 1 point to 6 points over Stephane Dion's Liberals since July 11. This improvement has been driven by the gaining of momentum in a few key battlegrounds.

• In Quebec, the Tories have closed a 26-point gap between themselves and the Bloc. The gap now sits at 9 points, representing a 17-point improvement.
• In Ontario, the Tories have closed a 12-point gap between themselves and the Liberals. The gap now sits at two points, representing a 10-point improvement.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Tories have closed a 12-point gap between themselves and the Liberals. The gap now sits at one point, a statistical tie, representing an 11-point improvement.

• In British Columbia, the Tories have widened their lead from 12 to 16 points, representing an improvement of 4 points.
• In Alberta, the 46-point lead for the Conservatives has been maintained.
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives are currently 14 points ahead of the Liberals, statistically unchanged from the 15-point lead they had in July.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television from August 12 to August 14, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1007 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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