Conservative Lead Grows As Liberals Tumble, NDP Close Behind

Nov. 29, 2023 – The Conservatives have opened a 16-point lead over the Liberals, who now appear at risk of losing their second-place position in the horserace as the NDP rallies. The Conservative lead has grown by 7 points in just two months, underscoring the challenges that the incumbent Liberal government is facing. With substantial advantages in both BC (48% CPC vs. 19% LPC) and Ontario (39% CPC vs. 27% LPC), the Conservatives would be well-positioned to form a majority government. The Liberals are holding on to a 10-point lead in Atlantic Canada, which is their only region of strength. Within Quebec, the Bloc (32%) leads the Liberals (28%), while the Tories (22%) would be poised to pick up seats.

Canadians also increasingly think that it is time for change, as nearly three quarters (73%) think its time for a new federal party to take over in Ottawa, up 7 points since September. Conversely, just 27% believe that the Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election, down 7 points since September. For some Canadians, change can’t come soon enough: six in ten (60%, +7 pts from Sep 2023) Canadians think the opposition parties should defeat the government and force an election before October 2025. The wind is quickly being pulled out of the sails of the Trudeau Liberals.