Conservatives Consolidate Lead Over Grits As Ontario Turns Blue

Toronto, ON - According to Ipsos-Reid's latest national survey of 1000 Canadians, that was conducted on behalf of CTV/Globe and Mail and released today, Canadian voters are continuing to punish the governing Liberal Party.

If a Federal election were held today, 36% of decided voters in Canada would cast their ballot in support of the Conservative Party (+6 points from the last survey conducted April 8-10th, 2005), 27% would vote for the Liberal Party (unchanged), 15% would vote for the NDP (-4 points), and 7% would vote for the Green Party (unchanged). In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 41% (-7 points) of the decided vote.

And, it's the Conservative Party that is now on the march in seat rich Ontario (39%, +7 points) and making a respectable showing in Quebec (16%, +3 points).

The Bloc Quebecois (41%, - 7 points) has lost some ground to the Liberals (25%, +7 points) in Quebec, and now only holds a 16-point lead (down from a 30-point lead).

And, when should we have an election? Only 11% indicate a willingness to go to the polls "right now", with another 14% preferring to wait until "right after all the witnesses have finished testifying in early May". However, a majority (53%) think that if there is an election it should come "after Mr. Justice Gomery releases his final report in October" - a further 19% say "at no time in the near future".

When it comes to leadership attributes, Paul Martin beats out Stephen Harper in the following:

183
• The best Prime Minister of Canada (42% vs. 34%); 183
• Better on the economy (47% vs. 34%); 183
• Values similar to your own (38% vs. 34%), 183
• Better on foreign issues (53% vs. 27%); and 183
• Better on social programs (44% vs. 35%).

Stephen Harper beats out Paul Martin when it comes to whom Canadians trust more (40% vs. 35%), and whom they think will clean up corruption in Ottawa (41% vs. 26%). These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from April 12th to April 14th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
Please open the attached PDF to view the entire factum including graphical displays of vote tracking and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900