Conservatives Crushed in Quebec (18%) as Bloc Soars (40%)

Toronto, ON - Amid the backdrop of an economic crisis south of the border and plummeting markets on both sides of it, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National, reveals that the Tories have tumbled in Quebec, likely fuelled at least in part by the arts cut controversy that has been dogging the Prime Minister, and the French-Language leaders' debate.

While the national numbers still position the Tories (37%, down 2 points) well ahead of the Liberals (23%, unchanged), NDP (19%, up 1 point), Green Party (10%, down 1 point) and Bloc (10%, up 2 points), it is in Quebec where the political landscape has just recently shifted:

• Within Quebec, the Bloc reasserts its commanding lead over the other parties, and would secure 40% support if the vote were to happen tomorrow. The Liberals, with 24% among decided voters (up 4 points), have jumped into second place, while the stumbling Tories (18%) have slipped 6 points in this province. The NDP (11%, down 7 points) and Green Party (6%) lag behind.
• In seat-rich Ontario, the Tories (40%, down 1 point) are relatively unchanged, as are the Liberals (26%, down 2). The NDP, however, has gained 5 points and now sits at 21% support among decided voters, running safely ahead of the Green Party (13%, unchanged).
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (40%) are the front runners, and the NDP (24%) is in second position. The Liberals (21%) have pulled ahead of the Green Party (14%).
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (66%) continue to enjoy dominance over all the other parties, including the NDP (17%), Greens (10%) and Liberals (6%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (45%) are in the lead, while the NDP (27%) remains ahead of the Liberals (23%). The Green Party (6%) is struggling in this part of the country.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (38%) lead the Liberals (30%) and the NDP (21%), while the Green Party (9%) trails.

With significant ground lost in Quebec, these numbers suggest that Prime Minister Harper and his Conservatives are still shy of a majority government, despite picking up a few more seats in Ontario. But coming into the home stretch of the campaign, things could still change.

A parliamentary seat model has been rendered by Dr. Barry Kay from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. The seat projection is based on an aggregate of polling data collected by LISPOP since the outset of the election, and this latest seat model has been updated to include this latest Ipsos Reid poll. Ipsos Reid does not create the seat model but contributes its findings to an aggregate base of polls used by Dr. Kay for the analysis.

With this current poll contribution to that aggregate base, the projection shows the Conservatives currently just shy of a majority with 153 seats for the Conservatives, 76 for the Liberals, 48 for the Bloc, 30 for the NDP, and 1 independent. For more information about the methodology and these projections, please visit www.wlu.ca/lispop/

Appetite for a Conservative Majority...

Thinking about the possibility that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives could win a majority following the election on October 14, nearly four in ten Canadians (36%, down 2 points) say that they would be `satisfied' (18% very/18% somewhat) with this outcome. A slim majority (52%) of Canadians, though, would be `dissatisfied' (38% very/14% somewhat) if this were to happen, up 1 point since last week. One in ten (12%) do not know what to think of this situation (up 1 point).

Satisfaction with this scenario, much like vote support, varies by demographics:

• Albertans (59%) are most likely to say that they'd be satisfied with this outcome, followed by those living in British Columbia (41%), Ontario (39%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (37%), Atlantic Canada (36%) and Quebec (19%).
• Older (42%) and middle-aged Canadians (37%) are more likely than their younger counterparts (29%) to be satisfied with this scenario.
• Men (40%) are significantly more likely than women (32%) to be satisfied if the Conservatives were to win a majority.

Strategic Voting...

Four in ten Canadians (37%, unchanged) say that they would consider voting for a political party just to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government. One half (49%) would not consider this tactic (down 2 points), while 14% say they don't know whether or not they'd consider this, up 2 points.

In terms of which party they would vote for in order to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government, among those who indicated that they would consider this tactic, four in ten (38%) say they would vote Liberal, while three in ten (30%) would vote for the NDP. Two in ten (17%) would choose to park their vote with the Bloc (49% in Quebec), and 8% would vote for the Greens to stop the Tories. Six percent don't know.

Leader Impressions in Review...

The results of the poll reveal that Canadians believe that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper had the worst performance of all the party leaders this week, with four in ten (36%) Canadians saying their impression of the Prime Minister has `worsened' over the last couple of days, compared with 14% who say their impression of him `improved' during this time. This represents a net loss of 22 points (-22). One half (50%) say that their opinions of the Conservative Leader were unchanged.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion didn't fare much better, with nearly four in ten (36%) Canadians indicating that their impressions of Dion `worsened' this week, while only 17% say their impressions of Mr. Dion `improved' over the last couple of days. This represents a net loss of 19 points (-19). One half (48%) say their impressions of the Liberal Leader have not changed.

Focusing on NDP Leader Jack Layton, it appears that Canadians overall were impressed by his performance this week. Three in ten (26%) say that their impressions of Mr. Layton have `improved' over the last few days, while only 14% say that they have `worsened'. This represents a net increase of 12 points (+12), making Jack Layton the week's winner. A majority (60%) says that their opinions of the NDP leader did not change over the last few days.

Turning to Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 19% said they had an `improved' view of the Ms. May over the last few days, while only 8% say their opinions of her have `worsened' in the last little while. This represents a net increase of 11 points (+11). Three quarters (73%) of Canadians say their impressions did not change.

Within Quebec, Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe had a respectable week, with 22% of Quebecers saying that they have an `improved' opinion of Mr. Duceppe, compared with 18% who said that their opinions of him had `worsened' over the last little while. This represents a net gain of 4 points (+4). Six in ten (60%) Quebecers indicate that their impressions of the Bloc Leader have not changed over the last few days.

Likelihood to Vote...

Come Election Day, the parties will be working hard to get their voters out to the polling stations. Overall, eight in ten (83%) Canadians say that they are at least `very likely' to vote, including 68% who indicate that they are `absolutely certain'. Examining certainty to vote by party, here is what the data reveal:

• Bloc supporters are now most likely to go and vote, with 79% indicating that they are `absolutely certain' to vote.
• A similar proportion of NDP supporters (77%) are `absolutely certain' to cast their ballot on Election Day.
• Seven in ten (72%) Liberal supporters say they're `absolutely certain' to vote.
• Seven in ten (71%) Conservative supporters suggest they're `absolutely certain' to vote.
• Only 54% of those supporting the Green Party indicate that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day.

Defecting Voters...

In order to better understand how voters are voting, examining whom they supported during the last election allows one to determine which parties' voters are switching parties between elections, and whose are staying put.

Eight in ten (84%) Conservative voters also voted Tory in 2006, while a similar proportion (83%) of Bloc voters are sticking with the same party this time. Only two thirds (63%) of those who voted Liberal this time indicate that that is who they voted for in 2006, and 46% of NDP supporters say they voted for the NDP last in 2006. One half (49%) of the Green Party's supporters are repeats.

Second Choice...

The NDP (27%) is the second-choice party for a plurality of voters, but the Liberals (26%) and Greens (22%) are not far behind. The Tories (14%) trail in this regard, while the Bloc is the second-choice of 18% of Quebecers.

• Interestingly, among Liberals supporters, the NDP (41%) is by far the most-popular second-choice, and among NDP supporters, the Liberals (41%) are by far the most-popular second-choice.
• In Quebec, among Bloc voters, the NDP (30%), Liberals (26%) and Conservatives (25%) are all close when it comes to second-choice parties.

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television:

The first poll was conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,009 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The second poll was conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2008. This survey of 1,026 adult Canadians was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel, based on quota sampling. Weighting then was employed to balance demographics and to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the Canadian adult population according to the latest Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels, not on random samples that mirror the population within a statistical probability ratio. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. However, an unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more election commentary, please visit our blog at: http://election.globaltv.com/blogs.aspx

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.

In 2007, Ipsos generated global revenues of e927.2 million ($1.27 billion U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP